Neuronal network and awareness measures of post-decision wagering behavior in detecting masked emotional faces

Awareness can be measured by investigating the patterns of associations between discrimination performance (first-order decisions) and confidence judgments (knowledge). In a typical post-decision wagering (PDW) task, participants judge their performance by wagering on each decision made in a detection task. If participants are aware, they wager advantageously by betting high whenever decisions are correct and low for incorrect decisions. Thus, PDW - like other awareness measures with confidence ratings - quantifies if the knowledge upon which they make their decisions is conscious. The present study proposes a new method of assessing the association between advantageous wagering and awareness in the PDW task with a combination of log-linear (LLM) modeling and neural network simulation to reveal the computational patterns that establish this association. We applied the post-decision wagering measure to a backward masking experiment in which participants made first-order decisions about whether or not a masked emotional face was present, and then used imaginary or real monetary stakes to judge the correctness of their initial decisions. The LLM analysis was then used to examine whether advantageous wagering was aware by testing a hypothesis of partial associations between metacognitive judgments and accuracy of first-order decisions. The LLM outcomes were submitted into a feed-forward neural network. The network served as a general approximator that was trained to learn relationships between input wagers and the output of the corresponding log-linear function. The simulation resulted in a simple network architecture that successfully accounted for wagering behavior. This was a feed-forward network unit consisting of one hidden neuron layer with four inputs and one output. In addition, the study indicated no effect of the monetary incentive cues on wagering strategies, although we observed that only low-wager input weights of the neural network considerably contributed to advantageous wagering

The role of risk aversion in non-conscious decision making

To what extent can people choose advantageously without knowing why they are making those choices? This hotly debated question has capitalized on the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT), in which people often learn to choose advantageously without appearing to know why. However, because the IGT is unconstrained in many respects, this finding remains debated and other interpretations are possible (e.g., risk aversion, ambiguity aversion, limits of working memory, or insensitivity to reward/punishment can explain the finding of the IGT). Here we devised an improved variant of the IGT in which the deck-payoff contingency switches after subjects repeatedly choose from a good deck, offering the statistical power of repeated within-subject measures based on learning the reward contingencies associated with each deck. We found that participants exhibited low confidence in their choices, as probed with post-decision wagering, despite high accuracy in selecting advantageous decks in the task, which is putative evidence for non-conscious decision making. However, such a behavioral dissociation could also be explained by risk aversion, a tendency to avoid risky decisions under uncertainty. By explicitly measuring risk aversion for each individual, we predicted subjects’ post-decision wagering using Bayesian modeling. We found that risk aversion indeed does play a role, but that it did not explain the entire effect. Moreover, independently measured risk aversion was uncorrelated with risk aversion exhibited during our version of the IGT, raising the possibility that the latter risk aversion may be non-conscious. Our findings support the idea that people can make optimal choices without being fully aware of the basis of their decision. We suggest that non-conscious decision making may be mediated by emotional feelings of risk that are based on mechanisms distinct from those that support cognitive assessment of risk

Betting on Dog Racing. The Next Legalised Gambling Opportunity in South Africa? A Cautionary Note from the Regulation of Greyhound Racing in Great Britain

This article commences with a brief overview of the history of dog racing in South Africa. It provides a synopsis of South Africa’s current legal position on dog racing and the betting thereon. The main question this article addresses is whether there is any policy reason why dog racing and wagering should not be legalised and regulated. Furthermore, some comments are included discussing how such regulation should fit into the broader existing gambling regulatory framework should the legislature make the decision to legalise dog racing and wagering. The article concludes with a discussion of the greyhound racing industry in Britain and the recent developments in that jurisdiction. The rationale for the choice of this jurisdiction as a comparison is that a successful greyhound racing industry has existed in Britain for decades. Yet, notwithstanding the successes of dog racing in Britain, an independent review was commissioned to investigate the sport after two high-profile animal welfare incidents in 2006. In December 2007, Lord Donoughue of Ashton, on behalf of the British Greyhound Racing Board and the National Greyhound Racing Club, published a report with recommendations for change titled, Independent Review of the Greyhound Industry in Great Britain. Although the Donoughue Report focuses exclusively on greyhound racing in Britain, this article submits that the principles used in Britain could be useful for any and all types of dog racing and could provide some useful guidelines for the decision concerning the possible legalisation and regulation of the South African dog racing industry

Higher-order thoughts in action : Consciousness as an unconscious re-description process

Peer reviewedPostprin

Ninety Days Post-PASPA: The Near-Term Financial Economic Impacts on Gaming and Casino Stocks

The U.S. Supreme Court ruled the 1992 Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA) unconstitutional on Monday, May 14, 2018 in a 6-3 decision. In general under PASPA individuals could only bet on sporting events in the state of Nevada though wagering on horse races was permitted at the state level. Post-PASPA, betting on individual sporting events could become a substitute for wagering on horse races, or it could become a complement to it if general gamblers pursue horse racing. Over time the availability of racetrack-level and related sports betting data will enable researchers to quantify these effects on the evolution of the equine industry. In the meantime, the message in the stock market was quite clear on May 14th and the subsequent 10 days of trading – returns to gaming and casino shares increased sharply and those increases were statistically significant