DITCH : a model of inter-ethnic partnership formation

This paper describes an agent-based model of inter-ethnic partnership formation. Inter-ethnic marriage, both a cause and a consequence of immigrant integration, is generally used to imply that the social distance between groups is low and, by extension, that community cohesion is high. Using a descriptive agent-based modelling approach, we seek to investigate the processes of partner selection in diverse communities, focusing on individual preferences, opportunities for contact, and group norms to uncover how these may lead to differential rates of inter-ethnic marriage

Adding Migration to a Model of Inter-ethnic Marriage

This paper reports on preliminary results obtained with an agent-based model of inter-ethnic marriage incorporating empirical data on migration flows. Migration has been a main driver of increased ethnic diversity and opportunities for inter-ethnic contact and partnership formation in the UK. However, the few existing models of inter-ethnic marriage tend to ignore migration and apply the processes underlying partner choice to a static population of individuals. We demonstrate that particularly in highly diverse areas where population composition is substantially shaped by international and internal migration, these migratory flows have to be taken into account, thus resulting in modelling a dynamic population

From evolutionary ecosystem simulations to computational models of human behavior

We have a wide breadth of computational tools available today that enable a more ethical approach to the study of human cognition and behavior. We argue that the use of computer models to study evolving ecosystems provides a rich source of inspiration, as they enable the study of complex systems that change over time. Often employing a combination of genetic algorithms and agent-based models, these methods span theoretical approaches from games to complexification, nature-inspired methods from studies of self-replication to the evolution of eyes, and evolutionary ecosystems of humans, from entire economies to the effects of personalities in teamwork. The review of works provided here illustrates the power of evolutionary ecosystem simulations and how they enable new insights for researchers. They also demonstrate a novel methodology of hypothesis exploration: building a computational model that encapsulates a hypothesis of human cognition enables it to be tested under different conditions, with its predictions compared to real data to enable corroboration. Such computational models of human behavior provide us with virtual test labs in which unlimited experiments can be performed. This article is categorized under: Computer Science and Robotics > Artificial Intelligence

The Success of the Deferred Acceptance Algorithm under Heterogenous Preferences with Endogenous Aspirations

In this paper, we consider a one-to-one matching model with two phases; an adolescence phase where individuals meet a number of dates and learn about their aspirations, followed by a matching phase where individuals are matched according to a version of Gale and Shapley's (1962) deferred acceptance (DA) algorithm. Using simulations of this model, we study how the likelihoods of matching and divorce, and also the balancedness and the speed of matching associated with the outcome of the DA algorithm are affected by the size of correlation in the preferences of individuals and by the frequency individuals update their aspirations in the adolescence phase

An Agent-based Model to Evaluate Interventions on Online Dating Platforms to Decrease Racial Homogamy

Perhaps the most controversial questions in the study of online platforms today surround the extent to which platforms can intervene to reduce the societal ills perpetrated on them. Up for debate is whether there exist any effective and lasting interventions a platform can adopt to address, e.g., online bullying, or if other, more far-reaching change is necessary to address such problems. Empirical work is critical to addressing such questions. But it is also challenging, because it is time-consuming, expensive, and sometimes limited to the questions companies are willing to ask. To help focus and inform this empirical work, we here propose an agent-based modeling (ABM) approach. As an application, we analyze the impact of a set of interventions on a simulated online dating platform on the lack of long-term interracial relationships in an artificial society. In the real world, a lack of interracial relationships are a critical vehicle through which inequality is maintained. Our work shows that many previously hypothesized interventions online dating platforms could take to increase the number of interracial relationships from their website have limited effects, and that the effectiveness of any intervention is subject to assumptions about sociocultural structure. Further, interventions that are effective in increasing diversity in long-term relationships are at odds with platforms' profit-oriented goals. At a general level, the present work shows the value of using an ABM approach to help understand the potential effects and side effects of different interventions that a platform could take

Lo studio dell'instabilità matrimoniale in Italia secondo un approccio agent-based modeling

Lo studio proposto, come da titolo, esplora il tema dell'instabilità matrimoniale in Italia mediante un approccio Agent-Based Modeling (ABM). Esso si suddivide in tre sezioni: la prima, prettamente teorica; la seconda, volta all'analisi dei dati secondari e, in ultimo, una terza in cui verranno spiegate ed analizzate sia le tecniche simulative tout court sia il modello ad agenti costruito ai fini dell'oggetto di indagine. Più nel dettaglio, per quanto concerne il theoretical framework, sono stati presi in esame sia i contributi di sociologi americani consultando le maggiori riviste sull'argomento (quali Journal of Marriage and Family, Marriage and Family Living, Journal of Family Issues) sia le ricerche dei sociologi italiani (Barbagli, Saraceno, Arosio): in questo capitolo, dunque, l'attenzione verte sulla disamina delle cause che possono determinare il fenomeno dell'instabilità coniugale. Successivamente, per quel che riguarda l'analisi dei dati statistici, in seguito alla consultazione di diversi datawarehouse Istat e degli annuari di statistiche giudiziarie civili, è stato possibile restituire le serie storiche su diversi aspetti considerati atti ad illustrare l'instabilità coniugale in Italia dal 1990 al 2012. Nello specifico, il focus si concentra su due tipi di variabili: • sulle caratteristiche socio-demografiche dei coniugi (l'età al matrimonio, l'età al momento della separazione, il titolo di studio e la posizione professionale); • sulle cosiddette life-course variables (durata del matrimonio, numero di figli e l'età di questi ultimi al momento della separazione della diade genitoriale). In ultimo, si è giunti alla creazione di un modello ad agenti del fenomeno in esame il quale tiene conto, in particolar modo, di due importanti linee teoriche: da una parte, tale espansione viene vista come il risultato di un calcolo costi/benefici che ogni individuo fa anche in relazione alla propria sfera intima (il meccanismo cui si fa riferimento è di social selection); dall'altra, la diffusione dell'instabilità coniugale viene spiegata alla stregua di un processo sociale innovativo (in questo caso il meccanismo ipotizzato è di social influence). Nel capitolo conclusivo vengono illustrate, dunque, le procedure impiegate al fine di costruire e sviluppare un ABM in grado di spiegare l'incremento dell'instabilità coniugale all'interno del contesto italiano e di restituire, validandoli, i dati empirici così come analizzati nel secondo capitolo di questa Tesi

Methodological Investigations in Agent-Based Modelling: With Applications for the Social Sciences

This open access book examines the methodological complications of using complexity science concepts within the social science domain. The opening chapters take the reader on a tour through the development of simulation methodologies in the fields of artificial life and population biology, then demonstrates the growing popularity and relevance of these methods in the social sciences. Following an in-depth analysis of the potential impact of these methods on social science and social theory, the text provides substantive examples of the application of agent-based models in the field of demography. This work offers a unique combination of applied simulation work and substantive, in-depth philosophical analysis, and as such has potential appeal for specialist social scientists, complex systems scientists, and philosophers of science interested in the methodology of simulation and the practice of interdisciplinary computing research.

Assessing vulnerability and modelling assistance: using demographic indicators of vulnerability and agent-based modelling to explore emergency flooding relief response

Flooding is a significant concern for much of the UK and is recognised as a primary threat by most local councils. Those in society most often deemed vulnerable: the elderly, poor or sick, for example, often see their level of vulnerability increase during hazard events. A greater knowledge of the spatial distribution of vulnerability within communities is key to understanding how a population may be impacted by a hazard event. Vulnerability indices are regularly used – in conjunction with needs assessments and on-the-ground research – to target service provision and justify resource allocation. Past work on measuring and mapping vulnerability has been limited by a focus on income-related indicators, a lack of consideration of accessibility, and the reliance on proprietary data. The Open Source Vulnerability Index (OSVI) encompasses an extensive range of vulnerability indicators supported by the wider literature and expert validation and provides data at a sufficiently fine resolution that can identify vulnerable populations. Findings of the OSVI demonstrate the potential cascading impact of a flood hazard as it impacts an already vulnerable population: exacerbating pre-existing vulnerabilities, limiting capabilities and restricting accessibility and access to key services. The OSVI feeds into an agent-based model (ABM) that explores the capacity of the British Red Cross (BRC) to distribute relief during flood emergencies using strategies based upon the OSVI. A participatory modelling approach was utilised whereby the BRC were included in all aspects of the model development. The major contribution of this work is the novel synthesis of demographics analysis, vulnerability mapping and geospatial simulation. The project contributes to the growing understanding of vulnerability and response management within the NGO sector. It is hoped that the index and model produced will allow responder organisations to run simulations of similar emergency events and adjust strategic response plans accordingly

Advances in Computational Social Science and Social Simulation

Aquesta conferència és la celebració conjunta de la "10th Artificial Economics Conference AE", la "10th Conference of the European Social Simulation Association ESSA" i la "1st Simulating the Past to Understand Human History SPUHH".Conferència organitzada pel Laboratory for Socio­-Historical Dynamics Simulation (LSDS-­UAB) de la Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona.Readers will find results of recent research on computational social science and social simulation economics, management, sociology,and history written by leading experts in the field. SOCIAL SIMULATION (former ESSA) conferences constitute annual events which serve as an international platform for the exchange of ideas and discussion of cutting edge research in the field of social simulations, both from the theoretical as well as applied perspective, and the 2014 edition benefits from the cross-fertilization of three different research communities into one single event. The volume consists of 122 articles, corresponding to most of the contributions to the conferences, in three different formats: short abstracts (presentation of work-in-progress research), posters (presentation of models and results), and full papers (presentation of social simulation research including results and discussion). The compilation is completed with indexing lists to help finding articles by title, author and thematic content. We are convinced that this book will serve interested readers as a useful compendium which presents in a nutshell the most recent advances at the frontiers of computational social sciences and social simulation researc

Together or apart: Modelling the inter-agency workings of emergency response multiteam systems

This thesis is concerned with the sub-optimized performance of emergency response systems in the UK. These emergency response systems come together during large scale civil emergencies to try and minimize the consequences of such events, with specific attention paid to protecting human welfare, the environment and the security of the UK. Such systems are comprised of individuals (referred to as agents throughout this thesis) from multiple agencies (i.e. fire service, health services, local authorities, private organizations, science advisors etc.) organized into multiple levels of command (i.e. operational at bronze level, tactical at silver level and strategic at gold level). In numerous past major incidents the emergency response system sub-optimized and did not perform as effectively or efficiently as it could. Inquests into these events have revealed that sub-optimization typically results from breakdowns in communication, collective understanding, coordination and decision making between the different agencies involved in the response. The aim of this thesis was thus to gain a greater understanding into why such sub-optimization occurs in emergency response systems – an organizational design I conceptualize as a multilevel multiteam system. Multiteam systems are a relatively novel concept to the organizational and management literatures, and thus our understanding of the functioning of such designs are currently still limited and worthy of further study. Computer simulation techniques were utilized within this thesis, specifically a relatively novel simulation technique known as agent-based modelling, in which agents with specific behavioural rules for acting and interacting are modelled with a view to determining the effect on aggregate level outcomes. I empirically tested the effects of theoretically derived generative mechanisms that could explain this system sub-optimization: social identity processes. These processes were isolated from the social identity approach (comprised of both social identity theory and self-categorization theory), which explains how people come to see themselves through their group membership, and interact with others on the basis of these memberships. The approach suggests that individuals have a bias towards favouring people within the same group, whilst treating those from ‘out-groups’ in a more derogatory fashion, and thus helps explain antagonism in intergroup contexts such as emergency response. Specifically, I considered how the level of commitment agents have to specific categorizations in conjunction with intergroup biases influence system-level communicative outcomes (specifically time taken, propagation and accuracy). The multilevel multiteam system design adopted in emergency response provides two salient groupings with which agents can categorize themselves that have not been considered in previous research: their originating organizational agencies (e.g. fire service, police service, local authority) and their level of command (e.g. bronze, silver or gold command), referred to in this thesis as horizontal categorizations and vertical categorizations respectively. It was found that high levels of commitment to horizontal categorizations and intergroup biases, both in isolation and in interaction, explain system sub-optimization in terms of communicative outcomes. Counterintuitively, it was also found that if agents had high commitment to their vertical categorization, then this could protect the system from sub-optimizing. The theoretical and practical implications of these findings are discussed including implications for designing interventions to prevent future communication breakdowns