Forecasting high waters at Venice Lagoon using chaotic time series analisys and nonlinear neural netwoks

Time series analysis using nonlinear dynamics systems theory and multilayer neural networks models have been applied to the time sequence of water level data recorded every hour at 'Punta della Salute' from Venice Lagoon during the years 1980-1994. The first method is based on the reconstruction of the state space attractor using time delay embedding vectors and on the characterisation of invariant properties which define its dynamics. The results suggest the existence of a low dimensional chaotic attractor with a Lyapunov dimension, DL, of around 6.6 and a predictability between 8 and 13 hours ahead. Furthermore, once the attractor has been reconstructed it is possible to make predictions by mapping local-neighbourhood to local-neighbourhood in the reconstructed phase space. To compare the prediction results with another nonlinear method, two nonlinear autoregressive models (NAR) based on multilayer feedforward neural networks have been developed. From the study, it can be observed that nonlinear forecasting produces adequate results for the 'normal' dynamic behaviour of the water level of Venice Lagoon, outperforming linear algorithms, however, both methods fail to forecast the 'high water' phenomenon more than 2-3 hours ahead.Publicad

Attractor reconstruction of an impact oscillator for parameter identification

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A Monte Carlo Approach to Measure the Robustness of Boolean Networks

Emergence of robustness in biological networks is a paramount feature of evolving organisms, but a study of this property in vivo, for any level of representation such as Genetic, Metabolic, or Neuronal Networks, is a very hard challenge. In the case of Genetic Networks, mathematical models have been used in this context to provide insights on their robustness, but even in relatively simple formulations, such as Boolean Networks (BN), it might not be feasible to compute some measures for large system sizes. We describe in this work a Monte Carlo approach to calculate the size of the largest basin of attraction of a BN, which is intrinsically associated with its robustness, that can be used regardless the network size. We show the stability of our method through finite-size analysis and validate it with a full search on small networks.Comment: on 1st International Workshop on Robustness and Stability of Biological Systems and Computational Solutions (WRSBS

Sum-of-Squares approach to feedback control of laminar wake flows

A novel nonlinear feedback control design methodology for incompressible fluid flows aiming at the optimisation of long-time averages of flow quantities is presented. It applies to reduced-order finite-dimensional models of fluid flows, expressed as a set of first-order nonlinear ordinary differential equations with the right-hand side being a polynomial function in the state variables and in the controls. The key idea, first discussed in Chernyshenko et al. 2014, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. 372(2020), is that the difficulties of treating and optimising long-time averages of a cost are relaxed by using the upper/lower bounds of such averages as the objective function. In this setting, control design reduces to finding a feedback controller that optimises the bound, subject to a polynomial inequality constraint involving the cost function, the nonlinear system, the controller itself and a tunable polynomial function. A numerically tractable approach to the solution of such optimisation problems, based on Sum-of-Squares techniques and semidefinite programming, is proposed. To showcase the methodology, the mitigation of the fluctuation kinetic energy in the unsteady wake behind a circular cylinder in the laminar regime at Re=100, via controlled angular motions of the surface, is numerically investigated. A compact reduced-order model that resolves the long-term behaviour of the fluid flow and the effects of actuation, is derived using Proper Orthogonal Decomposition and Galerkin projection. In a full-information setting, feedback controllers are then designed to reduce the long-time average of the kinetic energy associated with the limit cycle. These controllers are then implemented in direct numerical simulations of the actuated flow. Control performance, energy efficiency, and physical control mechanisms identified are analysed. Key elements, implications and future work are discussed