Multi-criteria decision making with linguistic labels: a comparison of two methodologies applied to energy planning

This paper compares two multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) approaches based on linguistic label assessment. The first approach consists of a modified fuzzy TOPSIS methodology introduced by Kaya and Kahraman in 2011. The second approach, introduced by Agell et al. in 2012, is based on qualitative reasoning techniques for ranking multi-attribute alternatives in group decision-making with linguistic labels. Both approaches are applied to a case of assessment and selection of the most suitable types of energy in a geographical area.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

A comparative study of multiple-criteria decision-making methods under stochastic inputs

This paper presents an application and extension of multiple-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods to account for stochastic input variables. More in particular, a comparative study is carried out among well-known and widely-applied methods in MCDM, when applied to the reference problem of the selection of wind turbine support structures for a given deployment location. Along with data from industrial experts, six deterministic MCDM methods are studied, so as to determine the best alternative among the available options, assessed against selected criteria with a view toward assigning confidence levels to each option. Following an overview of the literature around MCDM problems, the best practice implementation of each method is presented aiming to assist stakeholders and decision-makers to support decisions in real-world applications, where many and often conflicting criteria are present within uncertain environments. The outcomes of this research highlight that more sophisticated methods, such as technique for the order of preference by similarity to the ideal solution (TOPSIS) and Preference Ranking Organization method for enrichment evaluation (PROMETHEE), better predict the optimum design alternative

A framework for the selection of the right nuclear power plant

Civil nuclear reactors are used for the production of electrical energy. In the nuclear industry vendors propose several nuclear reactor designs with a size from 35–45 MWe up to 1600–1700 MWe. The choice of the right design is a multidimensional problem since a utility has to include not only financial factors as levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) and internal rate of return (IRR), but also the so called “external factors” like the required spinning reserve, the impact on local industry and the social acceptability. Therefore it is necessary to balance advantages and disadvantages of each design during the entire life cycle of the plant, usually 40–60 years. In the scientific literature there are several techniques for solving this multidimensional problem. Unfortunately it does not seem possible to apply these methodologies as they are, since the problem is too complex and it is difficult to provide consistent and trustworthy expert judgments. This paper fills the gap, proposing a two-step framework to choosing the best nuclear reactor at the pre-feasibility study phase. The paper shows in detail how to use the methodology, comparing the choice of a small-medium reactor (SMR) with a large reactor (LR), characterised, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (2006), by an electrical output respectively lower and higher than 700 MWe

WHY FUZZY ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS APPROACH FOR TRANSPORT PROBLEMS?

The evaluation of transport projects has become increasingly complex. Different aspects have to be taken into account and the consequences of the problems are usually far reaching and the different policy alternatives are numerous and difficult to predict. Several pressure or action groups have also emerged causing an even more complex decision making process. The use of multi criteria analysis for the evaluation of transport projects has increased due to this increasing complexity of the problem situation. At the same time, the importance of stakeholders within this evaluation process should have been recognized. Researches on transport projects are generally carried out to provide information to policymakers that have to operate within restrictive parameters (political, economical, social, etc…). Researchers should therefore take greater account of the different priorities of stakeholders such as policymakers, private enterprises and households. These stakeholders should be incorporated explicitly in the evaluation process. The Analytic Hierarchy Process is one of the Fuzzy Multiple Criteria Decision Making methods. It can be applied in a very broad range of applications of decision problems. Logistics, urban planning, public politics, marketing, finance, education, economics are a part of this wide application area. In transport subjects it can be used for the evaluation of transport policy measures or decision making problems. Due to its wide range application area, it has been an exciting research subject for many different field researchers. The aim of this paper is to introduce AHP method and to offer how to benefit it for the preference of urban planners in transport problems. This paper is composed of two main parts. First part consists of the literature survey regarding with the AHP and its application areas. The advantage of methods had been mentioned. Second part focuses on a sample application of AHP technique. The study uses AHP technique to determine the selection criteria in the transhipment port selection decision-making process. Keywords: Analytic Hierarchy Process, Multi criteria analysis, Transshipment port selection.

An empirical survey: Can green marketing really entice customers to pay more?

This research integrated the Social Cognition Theory and the Engel Kollat Blackwell customers’ purchasing model (EKB model) to synthetically discuss the three kinds of possible relations comprising “does negatively entice”, “does possibly entice” and “does positively entice” between green-marketing and customers’ purchasing and payment, with consideration given to environmental-protection issues. Based on the measured results, the most contributed contention of this research not only utilized three cross-analytical theories consisting of the social cognition theory (SCT) , the Fuzzy theory (FT) and the EKB model, and the novel F-ANP of the MCDM methodology to evaluate the collected data but it also manifested that Green-marketing does possibly entice customers to pay more (GMPECPM). These measured results have distinctly stunned the fundamental assumption in the traditional green-marketing research field that customers were supposed to be willing to pay more for green products and services because they were supporting green initiatives and helping environmental-protection. Further, major future research directions were also briefly demonstrated in this research as (1) the collection data have to be strengthened to gather more empirical customer feedback, corporate management comments, and professional scholars’ reports; (2) enterprises have to resoundingly establish a green-branding initiative after successfully executing green-marketing strategies.Green Marketing (G-marketing); Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM); Analytical Network Process (F-ANP).

A hierarchy fuzzy MCDM method for studying electronic marketing strategies in the information service industry

In this paper the impacts of Electronic Commerce {EC) on the international marketing strategies for the information service industries are studied. In seeking to blend humanistic concerns in this research with technological development by addressing challenges for deterministic attitudes, it also examines critical environmental factors relevant to Internet commerce in the changes of the international marketing environment. The needs for a new marketing paradigm for EC, which comes out of new trends of international electronic marketing, are also examined. The impacts of EC for the information service industry are discussed and a hierarchy fuzzy multicriteria decision-making (Fuzzy MCDM) method for evaluating the propagating EC market strategies is proposed. Finally, in order to show the practicability and usefulness in this method, an example is taken as a verifiable method. From the results of practical applications in evaluating the electronic marketing strategies, the proposed method is appropriate and appears to be ideal for a fuzzy environment

Risk assessment of blasting operations in open pit mines using FAHP method

Purpose. In the mining blasting operation, fragmentation is the most important output. Fly rock, ground vibration, air blast, and environmental effects are detrimental effects of blasting operations. Identifying and ranking the risk of blasting operations is considered as the most important stage in project management. Methods. In this research, the problem of identifying and ranking the factors constituting the risk in blasting operations is considered with the methodology of the Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (FAHP). Criteria and sub-criteria have been determined based on historical research studies, field studies, and expert opinions for designing a hierarchical process. Findings. Based on FAHP scores, non-control of the sub-criterion of health and safety (C3), blast operation results (C18) and knowledge, and skill and staffing (C2) with a score of 0.377, 0.334, and 0.294 respectively are the most effective sub-criterion for the creation of blasting operations risk. According to the score, the sub-criterion C18 is the most effective sub-criterion in providing the blasting operations risk. Effects and results of blasting operations (D8), with a score of 0.334 as the most effective criterion, and natural hazards (D10), with a score of 0.015, were the last priorities in the factors causing blasting operations risk. Originality. Regarding the risk rating of blasting operations, the control of the sub-criteria C3, C18, and C2, and the D8 criterion, is of particular importance in reducing the risk of blasting operations and improving project management. Practical implications. The evaluation of human resource performance and increase in the level of knowledge and skills and occupational safety and control of all outputs of blasting operations is necessary. Therefore, selecting the most important project risks and taking actions to remove them is essential for risk management.Мета. Визначення ризиків проведення вибухових робіт та їх оцінка на основі використанням нечіткого методу аналізу ієрархій (НМАІ) для покращення управління якістю проектів. Методика. В рамках даного дослідження, проблеми визначення та оцінки ризиків вибухових робіт розглядалися із застосуванням нечіткого методу аналізу ієрархій. На базі аналізу історичних даних і польового дослідження з урахуванням експертних оцінок були визначені критерії та підкритерії для побудови ієрархій. Результати. За результатами НМАІ, неконтролюючий підкритерій здоров’я та безпеки (С3), підкритерій результатів вибухових робіт (С18), знань, умінь і кадрів (С2) зі значеннями 0.377, 0.334 і 0.294 відповідно найбільш ефективні в появі ризику проведення вибухових робіт. Підкритерій С18 чинить найбільший вплив на ризик проведення вибухових робіт. Критерій результатів і наслідків вибухових робіт (D8) з найефективнішим значенням 0.334 та критерій природних катастроф (D10) зі значенням 0.015 є останніми пріоритетами серед чинників, які визначають ризик проведення вибухових робіт. Наукова новизна. Отримав доповнення та подальший розвиток науково-методичний підхід до визначення ризиків при проведенні вибухових робіт, заснований на їх ранжуванні з використанням системи виявлених критеріїв і підкритеріїв методом НМАІ. Практична значимість. Для успішного керування проектом важливо визначати найсерйозніші ризики проекту й вжити заходів щодо їх усунення. Відносно ранжирування ризиків проведення вибухових робіт управління підкритеріями C3, C18 і C2, а також критерієм D8, особливо важливо для зниження цих ризиків та покращення якості управління проектом.Цель. Определение рисков проведения взрывных работ и их оценка на основе использования нечеткого метода анализа иерархий (НМАИ) для улучшения управления качеством проектов. Методика. В рамках данного исследования, проблемы определения и оценки рисков взрывных работ рассматривались с применением нечеткого метода анализа иерархий. На базе анализа исторических данных и полевого исследования с учетом экспертных оценок были определены, критерии и подкритерии для построения иерархий. Результаты. По результатам НМАИ, неконтролирующий подкритерий здоровья и безопасности (С3), подкритерий результатов взрывных работ (С18), знаний, умений и кадров (С2) со значениями 0.377, 0.334 и 0.294 соответственно наиболее эффективны в появлении риска проведения взрывных работ. Подкритерий С18 оказывает самое большое влияние на риск проведения взрывных работ. Критерий результатов и последствий взрывных работ (D8) с самым эффективным значением 0.334 и критерий природных катастроф (D10) со значением 0.015 являются последними приоритетами среди факторов, которые определяют риск проведения взрывных работ. Научная новизна. Получил дополнение и дальнейшее развитие научно-методический подход к определению рисков при проведении взрывных работ, основанный на их ранжировании с использованием системы выявленных критериев и подкритериев методом НМАИ. Практическая значимость. Для успешного руководства проектом важно определять самые серьезные риски проекта и предпринять действия по их устранению. В отношении ранжирования рисков проведения взрывных работ управление подкритериями C3, C18 и C2, а также критерием D8, особенно важно для снижения этих рисков и улучшения руководства проектом.The authors would like to thank Mining Engineering Department, Islamic Azad University (South Tehran Branch) for supporting this research