The identification of complex spatiotemporal patterns using Coupled map lattice model

Many complex and interesting spatiotemporal patterns have been observed in a wide range of scienti¯c areas. In this paper, two kinds of spatiotemporal patterns including spot replication and Turing systems are investigated and new identi¯cation methods are proposed to obtain Coupled Map Lattice (CML) models for this class of systems. Initially, a new correlation analysis method is introduced to determine an appropriate temporal and spatial data sampling step procedure for the identification of spatiotemporal systems. A new combined Orthogonal Forward Regression and Bayesian Learning algorithm with Laplace priors is introduced to identify sparse and robust CML models for complex spatiotemporal patterns. The final identified CML models are validated using correlation based model validation tests for spatiotemporal systems. Numerical re-sults illustrate the identification procedure and demonstrate the validity of the identified models

Flow-directed PCA for monitoring networks

Measurements recorded over monitoring networks often possess spatial and temporal correlation inducing redundancies in the information provided. For river water quality monitoring in particular, flow-connected sites may likely provide similar information. This paper proposes a novel approach to principal components analysis to investigate reducing dimensionality for spatiotemporal flow-connected network data in order to identify common spatiotemporal patterns. The method is illustrated using monthly observations of total oxidized nitrogen for the Trent catchment area in England. Common patterns are revealed that are hidden when the river network structure and temporal correlation are not accounted for. Such patterns provide valuable information for the design of future sampling strategies

Detecting multineuronal temporal patterns in parallel spike trains

We present a non-parametric and computationally efficient method that detects spatiotemporal firing patterns and pattern sequences in parallel spike trains and tests whether the observed numbers of repeating patterns and sequences on a given timescale are significantly different from those expected by chance. The method is generally applicable and uncovers coordinated activity with arbitrary precision by comparing it to appropriate surrogate data. The analysis of coherent patterns of spatially and temporally distributed spiking activity on various timescales enables the immediate tracking of diverse qualities of coordinated firing related to neuronal state changes and information processing. We apply the method to simulated data and multineuronal recordings from rat visual cortex and show that it reliably discriminates between data sets with random pattern occurrences and with additional exactly repeating spatiotemporal patterns and pattern sequences. Multineuronal cortical spiking activity appears to be precisely coordinated and exhibits a sequential organization beyond the cell assembly concept

Spatiotemporal patterns and predictability of cyberattacks

A relatively unexplored issue in cybersecurity science and engineering is whether there exist intrinsic patterns of cyberattacks. Conventional wisdom favors absence of such patterns due to the overwhelming complexity of the modern cyberspace. Surprisingly, through a detailed analysis of an extensive data set that records the time-dependent frequencies of attacks over a relatively wide range of consecutive IP addresses, we successfully uncover intrinsic spatiotemporal patterns underlying cyberattacks, where the term "spatio" refers to the IP address space. In particular, we focus on analyzing {\em macroscopic} properties of the attack traffic flows and identify two main patterns with distinct spatiotemporal characteristics: deterministic and stochastic. Strikingly, there are very few sets of major attackers committing almost all the attacks, since their attack "fingerprints" and target selection scheme can be unequivocally identified according to the very limited number of unique spatiotemporal characteristics, each of which only exists on a consecutive IP region and differs significantly from the others. We utilize a number of quantitative measures, including the flux-fluctuation law, the Markov state transition probability matrix, and predictability measures, to characterize the attack patterns in a comprehensive manner. A general finding is that the attack patterns possess high degrees of predictability, potentially paving the way to anticipating and, consequently, mitigating or even preventing large-scale cyberattacks using macroscopic approaches

Exploring spatiotemporal dynamics of urban fires: A case of Nanjing, China

Urban fire occurs within the built environment, usually involving casualties and economic losses, and affects individuals and socioeconomic activities in the surrounding neighborhoods. A good understanding of the spatiotemporal dynamics of fire incidents can offer insights into potential determinants of various fire events, therefore enabling better fire risk estimation which can assist with future allocation of prevention resources and strategic planning of mitigation programs. Using a twelve-year (2002–2013) dataset containing the urban fire events in Nanjing, China, this research explores the spatiotemporal dynamics of urban fires using a range of exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) approaches. Of particular interest here are the fire incidents involving residential properties and local facilities due to their relatively higher occurrence frequencies. The results indicate that the overall amount of urban fires has greatly increased in the last decade and the spatiotemporal distribution of fire events varies among different incident types. The identified spatiotemporal patterns of urban fires in Nanjing can be linked to the urban development strategies and how they have been reflected in reality in recent years