Advances, gaps and way forward in provision of climate services over the Greater Horn of Africa

The Greater Horn of Africa is prone to extreme climatic conditions, thus, making climate services increasingly important in supporting decision-making processes across a range of climate sensitive sectors. This study aims to provide a comprehensive review of the recent advances, gaps and challenges in the provision of climate services over the region, for each of the components of the Global Framework for Climate Services. The study explores various milestones that have been achieved toward climate service delivery. The achievements include improvement of station network coverage, and enhancing the capacity of member states to utilize various tools in data analysis and generate routine climate products. The advancement in science, and availability of High-Performance Computing has made it possible for forecast information to be provided from nowcasting to seasonal timescales. Moreover, operationalizing of the objective forecasting method for monthly and seasonal forecasts has made it possible to translate tercile forecasts for applications models. Additionally, innovative approaches to user engagement through co-production, communication channels, user-friendly interfaces, and dissemination of climate information have also been developed. Despite the significant progress that has been made in the provision of climate services, there are still many challenges and gaps that need to be overcome in order to ensure that these services are effectively meeting the needs of users. The research of the science underpinning climate variability, capacity building and stakeholder engagement, as well as improved data management and quality control processes are some of the gaps that exist over the region. Additionally, communication and dissemination of climate information, including timely warnings and risk communication, require improvement to reach diverse user groups effectively. Addressing these challenges will require strengthened partnerships, increased investment in capacity building, enhanced collaboration between the climate information producers and stakeholders, and the development of user-friendly climate products. Bridging these gaps will foster greater resilience to climate-related hazards and disasters in the Greater Horn of Africa and support sustainable development in the region

WHITE - Winter Hazards in Terminal Environment

Flughäfen werden durch winterliche Wetterbedingungen maßgeblich beeinflusst. Schnee oder Eis auf Bewegungsflächen und Flugzeugen behindern, verzögern und gefährden den alltäglichen Ablauf und erfordern eine rechtzeitige Durchführung von Gegenmaßnahmen. Die exakte Erfassung und Vorhersage von Winterwetterverhältnissen sind die entscheidenden Faktoren, um Pünktlichkeit, Effizienz und Sicherheit in Winterwettersituationen am Flughafen aufrecht zu erhalten und den ökonomischen Schaden zu minimieren. In Zusammenarbeit mit dem Flughafen München wurde in der Abteilung Verkehrsmeteorologie des DLR-Instituts für Physik der Atmosphäre das Winterwetter- Nowcasting-System WHITE (Winter Hazards in Terminal Environment) entwickelt. WHITE ist ein automatisiertes System, das mehrere Datenquellen miteinander verbindet, um problematische Winterszenarien, wie Schnee, gefrierenden Niederschlag oder Vereisung, zu identifizieren. Dabei wird ein Ansatz gewählt, der die entscheidenden Parameter unterschiedlicher Szenarien anhand einer innovativen Fuzzy-Logik verknüpft und potentiell gefährliche Regionen klassifiziert. Diese gefährlichen Regionen werden anschließend zu Winterwetterobjekten zusammengefasst. So können sowohl der Niederschlagstyp als auch die Intensität des Winterwetters bestimmt werden. Da neben der Situationsanalyse in WHITE auch eine kurzfristige Vorhersage für maximal zwei Stunden erstellt wird, kann zudem eine Aussage über den Beginn und die Dauer problematischer Situationen getroffen werden. WHITE besitzt neben dem Nowcasting-System mit einem Participatory-Sensing- Ansatz ein weiteres Hauptelement. Dieser Ansatz nutzt die Fähigkeiten der Positionsbestimmung internetfähiger Mobilgeräte in Kombination mit der allgegenwärtigen Bereitschaft zur regelmäßigen Nutzung dieser Geräte. Dadurch werden Möglichkeiten eröffnet, die von der Optimierung der Leistungsfähigkeit und der Evaluierung bis hin zum erleichterten Umgang der Nutzer mit den Ergebnissen des Nowcasting-Systems reichen. In dieser Arbeit werden die Grundlagen, die Datenquellen und die Entwicklung des Nowcasting-Systems und des Participatory-Sensing-Ansatzes beschrieben. Zusätzlich werden die Ergebnisse zweier Testkampagnen in den Wintermonaten 2012/2013 und 2013/2014 gezeigt und die LeistungsfähigkeitWinter weather is a decisive factor affecting the daily course of action at airports and causing delays or even safety hazards. Snow covered or iced aerodrome movement areas or aircraft require an initiation of counteractions on time. In order to minimize economic loss and to maintain safety, winter weather situations within an investigation area around an airport have to be detected and forecasted as precisely as possible. At the Department of Traffic Meteorology of the German Aerospace Center’s (DLR) Institute of Atmospheric Physics the winter weather nowcasting system WHITE (Winter Hazards In Terminal Environment) has been developed kindly supported by Munich Airport operations. Designed as an automated system WHITE assimilates multiple real-time data sources and assesses problematic winter weather aspects like the differentiation between snow and liquid precipitation, the identification of freezing precipitation and icing plus the rating of surface conditions. The innovative approach of WHITE, combining critical parameters for different predefined winter weather scenarios by means of Fuzzy Logic, classifying hazardous regions and generating winter weather objects, enables the determination of precipitation type and hazard’s intensity. By nowcasting the current situation over a period of two hours it is also possible to estimate the beginning and the duration of hazardous conditions within the investigation area. In addition to the nowcasting system a participatory sensing approach is integrated within WHITE as a second main issue. The idea of this user-centered approach is based on the recent spread of high-capacity sensor-equipped mobile phones and the pervasive willingness of using the devices. Performance optimization, output evaluation and simplified handling with the system’s output are the benefits resulting from the participatory sensing approach. In this work the basics, the data sources and development of the nowcasting system and of the participatory sensing approach are described. Additionally the results of two test campaigns during the winter months of 2012/2013 and 2013/2014 are shown and the system’s capability is demonstrated with the help of significant case studies

Towards the “Perfect” Weather Warning

This book is about making weather warnings more effective in saving lives, property, infrastructure and livelihoods, but the underlying theme of the book is partnership. The book represents the warning process as a pathway linking observations to weather forecasts to hazard forecasts to socio-economic impact forecasts to warning messages to the protective decision, via a set of five bridges that cross the divides between the relevant organisations and areas of expertise. Each bridge represents the communication, translation and interpretation of information as it passes from one area of expertise to another and ultimately to the decision maker, who may be a professional or a member of the public. The authors explore the partnerships upon which each bridge is built, assess the expertise and skills that each partner brings and the challenges of communication between them, and discuss the structures and methods of working that build effective partnerships. The book is ordered according to the “first mile” paradigm in which the decision maker comes first, and then the production chain through the warning and forecast to the observations is considered second. This approach emphasizes the importance of co-design and co-production throughout the warning process. The book is targeted at professionals and trainee professionals with a role in the warning chain, i.e. in weather services, emergency management agencies, disaster risk reduction agencies, risk management sections of infrastructure agencies. This is an open access book

Early Warning Systems and Their Role in Disaster Risk Reduction

In this chapter, we introduce early warning systems (EWS) in the context of disaster risk reduction, including the main components of an EWS, the roles of the main actors and the need for robust evaluation. Management of disaster risks requires that the nature and distribution of risk are understood, including the hazards, and the exposure, vulnerability and capacity of communities at risk. A variety of policy options can be used to reduce and manage risks, and we emphasise the contribution of early warnings, presenting an eight-component framework of people-centred early warning systems which highlights the importance of an integrated and all-society approach. We identify the need for decisions to be evidence-based, for performance monitoring and for dealing with errors and false information. We conclude by identifying gaps in current early warning systems, including in the social components of warning systems and in dealing with multi-hazards, and obstacles to progress, including issues in funding, data availability, and stakeholder engagement

Destination Earth: Use Cases Analysis

Destination Earth (DestinE) is an initiative initiated and coordinated by the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology (DG CNECT) in support of the European Green Deal1 and as contribution to the establishment of the Green Deal Data Space, one of several data spaces envisaged in the European Strategy for Data (COM2020 66 final). The overall objective of DestinE is to develop a service infrastructure that: - serves specific EU needs based on clearly identified EU policy priorities and user needs in relation to e.g. the Green Deal, and - is at the same time firmly based on European values, such as commitment to quality and transparency in order to build trust in evidence-based policy-making among all stakeholders. DestinE will include a shared horizontal layer including computer processing, data, software, and infrastructure and some vertical applications, Digital Twins (DTs), in selected thematic areas responding to priority policy use cases. To identify these priorities, the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission (JRC) has been tasked by DG CNECT to collect a number of potential use cases for DestinE representing needs of policy DGs in the Commission. This document presents 30 use cases received from six policy DGs, the JRC and 5 relevant European stakeholders. The use cases were preliminarily evaluated and clustered according to their assumed maturity level in terms of policy, scientific and anticipatory potential. Following a series of interactions with all stakeholders consulted, JRC identified two initial DTs on: - Extreme Earth issues (disaster risk management in relation to extreme weather-induced natural disasters); - Climate change adaptation issues (primarily food and water supply security). Another DT on digital oceans (around food and energy issues) was introduced as a suggestion to DG CNECT to be possibly developed in the second phase of DestinE’s implementation. Although this report is certainly neither exhaustive nor fully descriptive e.g. in relation to the assumed maturity levels of the mentioned use cases, it served nevertheless as a useful input to DG CNECT’s final definition of the scope of DTs whose development would be prioritized in the course of the DestinE implementation.JRC.B.6-Digital Econom

Detection and early warning of lightning and extreme storm events in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

Doctoral Degree. University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg.Abstract available in pdf

Integrating Big Data Into the Monitoring and Evaluation of Development Programmes

This report provides guidelines for evaluators, evaluation and programme managers, policy makers and funding agencies on how to take advantage of the rapidly emerging field of big data in the design and implementation of systems for monitoring and evaluating development programmes. The report is organized into two parts. Part I: Development evaluation in the age of big data reviews the data revolution and discusses the promise, and challenges this offers for strengthening development monitoring and evaluation. Part II: Guidelines for integrating big data into the monitoring and evaluation frameworks of development programmes focuses on what a big data inclusive M&E system would look like. The report also includes guidelines for integrating big data into programme monitoring and evaluation

Earth Observation Open Science and Innovation

geospatial analytics; social observatory; big earth data; open data; citizen science; open innovation; earth system science; crowdsourced geospatial data; citizen science; science in society; data scienc