Modeling, forecasting and trading the EUR exchange rates with hybrid rolling genetic algorithms: support vector regression forecast combinations

The motivation of this paper is to introduce a hybrid Rolling Genetic Algorithm-Support Vector Regression (RG-SVR) model for optimal parameter selection and feature subset combination. The algorithm is applied to the task of forecasting and trading the EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and EUR/JPY exchange rates. The proposed methodology genetically searches over a feature space (pool of individual forecasts) and then combines the optimal feature subsets (SVR forecast combinations) for each exchange rate. This is achieved by applying a fitness function specialized for financial purposes and adopting a sliding window approach. The individual forecasts are derived from several linear and non-linear models. RG-SVR is benchmarked against genetically and non-genetically optimized SVRs and SVMs models that are dominating the relevant literature, along with the robust ARBF-PSO neural network. The statistical and trading performance of all models is investigated during the period of 1999–2012. As it turns out, RG-SVR presents the best performance in terms of statistical accuracy and trading efficiency for all the exchange rates under study. This superiority confirms the success of the implemented fitness function and training procedure, while it validates the benefits of the proposed algorithm

European exchange trading funds trading with locally weighted support vector regression

In this paper, two different Locally Weighted Support Vector Regression (wSVR) algorithms are generated and applied to the task of forecasting and trading five European Exchange Traded Funds. The trading application covers the recent European Monetary Union debt crisis. The performance of the proposed models is benchmarked against traditional Support Vector Regression (SVR) models. The Radial Basis Function, the Wavelet and the Mahalanobis kernel are explored and tested as SVR kernels. Finally, a novel statistical SVR input selection procedure is introduced based on a principal component analysis and the Hansen, Lunde, and Nason (2011) model confidence test. The results demonstrate the superiority of the wSVR models over the traditional SVRs and of the v-SVR over the ε-SVR algorithms. We note that the performance of all models varies and considerably deteriorates in the peak of the debt crisis. In terms of the kernels, our results do not confirm the belief that the Radial Basis Function is the optimum choice for financial series

Accelerated Particle Swarm Optimization and Support Vector Machine for Business Optimization and Applications

Business optimization is becoming increasingly important because all business activities aim to maximize the profit and performance of products and services, under limited resources and appropriate constraints. Recent developments in support vector machine and metaheuristics show many advantages of these techniques. In particular, particle swarm optimization is now widely used in solving tough optimization problems. In this paper, we use a combination of a recently developed Accelerated PSO and a nonlinear support vector machine to form a framework for solving business optimization problems. We first apply the proposed APSO-SVM to production optimization, and then use it for income prediction and project scheduling. We also carry out some parametric studies and discuss the advantages of the proposed metaheuristic SVM.Comment: 12 page

PhysicsGP: A Genetic Programming Approach to Event Selection

We present a novel multivariate classification technique based on Genetic Programming. The technique is distinct from Genetic Algorithms and offers several advantages compared to Neural Networks and Support Vector Machines. The technique optimizes a set of human-readable classifiers with respect to some user-defined performance measure. We calculate the Vapnik-Chervonenkis dimension of this class of learning machines and consider a practical example: the search for the Standard Model Higgs Boson at the LHC. The resulting classifier is very fast to evaluate, human-readable, and easily portable. The software may be downloaded at: http://cern.ch/~cranmer/PhysicsGP.htmlComment: 16 pages 9 figures, 1 table. Submitted to Comput. Phys. Commu