5,581 research outputs found
Reachability in Parametric Interval Markov Chains using Constraints
Parametric Interval Markov Chains (pIMCs) are a specification formalism that
extend Markov Chains (MCs) and Interval Markov Chains (IMCs) by taking into
account imprecision in the transition probability values: transitions in pIMCs
are labeled with parametric intervals of probabilities. In this work, we study
the difference between pIMCs and other Markov Chain abstractions models and
investigate the two usual semantics for IMCs: once-and-for-all and
at-every-step. In particular, we prove that both semantics agree on the
maximal/minimal reachability probabilities of a given IMC. We then investigate
solutions to several parameter synthesis problems in the context of pIMCs --
consistency, qualitative reachability and quantitative reachability -- that
rely on constraint encodings. Finally, we propose a prototype implementation of
our constraint encodings with promising results
Mean-Payoff Optimization in Continuous-Time Markov Chains with Parametric Alarms
Continuous-time Markov chains with alarms (ACTMCs) allow for alarm events
that can be non-exponentially distributed. Within parametric ACTMCs, the
parameters of alarm-event distributions are not given explicitly and can be
subject of parameter synthesis. An algorithm solving the -optimal
parameter synthesis problem for parametric ACTMCs with long-run average
optimization objectives is presented. Our approach is based on reduction of the
problem to finding long-run average optimal strategies in semi-Markov decision
processes (semi-MDPs) and sufficient discretization of parameter (i.e., action)
space. Since the set of actions in the discretized semi-MDP can be very large,
a straightforward approach based on explicit action-space construction fails to
solve even simple instances of the problem. The presented algorithm uses an
enhanced policy iteration on symbolic representations of the action space. The
soundness of the algorithm is established for parametric ACTMCs with
alarm-event distributions satisfying four mild assumptions that are shown to
hold for uniform, Dirac and Weibull distributions in particular, but are
satisfied for many other distributions as well. An experimental implementation
shows that the symbolic technique substantially improves the efficiency of the
synthesis algorithm and allows to solve instances of realistic size.Comment: This article is a full version of a paper accepted to the Conference
on Quantitative Evaluation of SysTems (QEST) 201
Probabilistic Bisimulations for PCTL Model Checking of Interval MDPs
Verification of PCTL properties of MDPs with convex uncertainties has been
investigated recently by Puggelli et al. However, model checking algorithms
typically suffer from state space explosion. In this paper, we address
probabilistic bisimulation to reduce the size of such an MDPs while preserving
PCTL properties it satisfies. We discuss different interpretations of
uncertainty in the models which are studied in the literature and that result
in two different definitions of bisimulations. We give algorithms to compute
the quotients of these bisimulations in time polynomial in the size of the
model and exponential in the uncertain branching. Finally, we show by a case
study that large models in practice can have small branching and that a
substantial state space reduction can be achieved by our approach.Comment: In Proceedings SynCoP 2014, arXiv:1403.784
Parameter-Independent Strategies for pMDPs via POMDPs
Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) are a popular class of models suitable for
solving control decision problems in probabilistic reactive systems. We
consider parametric MDPs (pMDPs) that include parameters in some of the
transition probabilities to account for stochastic uncertainties of the
environment such as noise or input disturbances.
We study pMDPs with reachability objectives where the parameter values are
unknown and impossible to measure directly during execution, but there is a
probability distribution known over the parameter values. We study for the
first time computing parameter-independent strategies that are expectation
optimal, i.e., optimize the expected reachability probability under the
probability distribution over the parameters. We present an encoding of our
problem to partially observable MDPs (POMDPs), i.e., a reduction of our problem
to computing optimal strategies in POMDPs.
We evaluate our method experimentally on several benchmarks: a motivating
(repeated) learner model; a series of benchmarks of varying configurations of a
robot moving on a grid; and a consensus protocol.Comment: Extended version of a QEST 2018 pape
Multi-objective Robust Strategy Synthesis for Interval Markov Decision Processes
Interval Markov decision processes (IMDPs) generalise classical MDPs by
having interval-valued transition probabilities. They provide a powerful
modelling tool for probabilistic systems with an additional variation or
uncertainty that prevents the knowledge of the exact transition probabilities.
In this paper, we consider the problem of multi-objective robust strategy
synthesis for interval MDPs, where the aim is to find a robust strategy that
guarantees the satisfaction of multiple properties at the same time in face of
the transition probability uncertainty. We first show that this problem is
PSPACE-hard. Then, we provide a value iteration-based decision algorithm to
approximate the Pareto set of achievable points. We finally demonstrate the
practical effectiveness of our proposed approaches by applying them on several
case studies using a prototypical tool.Comment: This article is a full version of a paper accepted to the Conference
on Quantitative Evaluation of SysTems (QEST) 201
Accelerating Parametric Probabilistic Verification
We present a novel method for computing reachability probabilities of
parametric discrete-time Markov chains whose transition probabilities are
fractions of polynomials over a set of parameters. Our algorithm is based on
two key ingredients: a graph decomposition into strongly connected subgraphs
combined with a novel factorization strategy for polynomials. Experimental
evaluations show that these approaches can lead to a speed-up of up to several
orders of magnitude in comparison to existing approache
Parametric LTL on Markov Chains
This paper is concerned with the verification of finite Markov chains against
parametrized LTL (pLTL) formulas. In pLTL, the until-modality is equipped with
a bound that contains variables; e.g., asserts that
holds within time steps, where is a variable on natural
numbers. The central problem studied in this paper is to determine the set of
parameter valuations for which the probability to
satisfy pLTL-formula in a Markov chain meets a given threshold , where is a comparison on reals and a probability. As for pLTL
determining the emptiness of is undecidable, we consider
several logic fragments. We consider parametric reachability properties, a
sub-logic of pLTL restricted to next and , parametric B\"uchi
properties and finally, a maximal subclass of pLTL for which emptiness of is decidable.Comment: TCS Track B 201
Computational statistics using the Bayesian Inference Engine
This paper introduces the Bayesian Inference Engine (BIE), a general
parallel, optimised software package for parameter inference and model
selection. This package is motivated by the analysis needs of modern
astronomical surveys and the need to organise and reuse expensive derived data.
The BIE is the first platform for computational statistics designed explicitly
to enable Bayesian update and model comparison for astronomical problems.
Bayesian update is based on the representation of high-dimensional posterior
distributions using metric-ball-tree based kernel density estimation. Among its
algorithmic offerings, the BIE emphasises hybrid tempered MCMC schemes that
robustly sample multimodal posterior distributions in high-dimensional
parameter spaces. Moreover, the BIE is implements a full persistence or
serialisation system that stores the full byte-level image of the running
inference and previously characterised posterior distributions for later use.
Two new algorithms to compute the marginal likelihood from the posterior
distribution, developed for and implemented in the BIE, enable model comparison
for complex models and data sets. Finally, the BIE was designed to be a
collaborative platform for applying Bayesian methodology to astronomy. It
includes an extensible object-oriented and easily extended framework that
implements every aspect of the Bayesian inference. By providing a variety of
statistical algorithms for all phases of the inference problem, a scientist may
explore a variety of approaches with a single model and data implementation.
Additional technical details and download details are available from
http://www.astro.umass.edu/bie. The BIE is distributed under the GNU GPL.Comment: Resubmitted version. Additional technical details and download
details are available from http://www.astro.umass.edu/bie. The BIE is
distributed under the GNU GP
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