Distributed Bayesian Matrix Factorization with Limited Communication

Bayesian matrix factorization (BMF) is a powerful tool for producing low-rank representations of matrices and for predicting missing values and providing confidence intervals. Scaling up the posterior inference for massive-scale matrices is challenging and requires distributing both data and computation over many workers, making communication the main computational bottleneck. Embarrassingly parallel inference would remove the communication needed, by using completely independent computations on different data subsets, but it suffers from the inherent unidentifiability of BMF solutions. We introduce a hierarchical decomposition of the joint posterior distribution, which couples the subset inferences, allowing for embarrassingly parallel computations in a sequence of at most three stages. Using an efficient approximate implementation, we show improvements empirically on both real and simulated data. Our distributed approach is able to achieve a speed-up of almost an order of magnitude over the full posterior, with a negligible effect on predictive accuracy. Our method outperforms state-of-the-art embarrassingly parallel MCMC methods in accuracy, and achieves results competitive to other available distributed and parallel implementations of BMF.Comment: 28 pages, 8 figures. The paper is published in Machine Learning journal. An implementation of the method is is available in SMURFF software on github (bmfpp branch): https://github.com/ExaScience/smurf

Forecasting of commercial sales with large scale Gaussian Processes

This paper argues that there has not been enough discussion in the field of applications of Gaussian Process for the fast moving consumer goods industry. Yet, this technique can be important as it e.g., can provide automatic feature relevance determination and the posterior mean can unlock insights on the data. Significant challenges are the large size and high dimensionality of commercial data at a point of sale. The study reviews approaches in the Gaussian Processes modeling for large data sets, evaluates their performance on commercial sales and shows value of this type of models as a decision-making tool for management.Comment: 1o pages, 5 figure

Getting Started with Particle Metropolis-Hastings for Inference in Nonlinear Dynamical Models

This tutorial provides a gentle introduction to the particle Metropolis-Hastings (PMH) algorithm for parameter inference in nonlinear state-space models together with a software implementation in the statistical programming language R. We employ a step-by-step approach to develop an implementation of the PMH algorithm (and the particle filter within) together with the reader. This final implementation is also available as the package pmhtutorial in the CRAN repository. Throughout the tutorial, we provide some intuition as to how the algorithm operates and discuss some solutions to problems that might occur in practice. To illustrate the use of PMH, we consider parameter inference in a linear Gaussian state-space model with synthetic data and a nonlinear stochastic volatility model with real-world data.Comment: 41 pages, 7 figures. In press for Journal of Statistical Software. Source code for R, Python and MATLAB available at: https://github.com/compops/pmh-tutoria