A systematic method of project selection based on risk and return criteria and according to the mean-semi-deviation behavioral hypothesis

The uncertain problem of Industrial project selection is the topic of discussion in this article. As the unrealistic assumption of certainty is relaxed in this problem, the decision maker is faced with a two-criterion decision model in which justifying between Risk and Return are the main concerns. The concept of Risk has been revised and the “Semi-Deviation” measure has been proposed to represent the risk of a project. Based on the new Mean-Semi-deviation Behavior, and according to Utility and Modern Portfolio theories, a more efficient method of project evaluation will be presented

Managing project interdependencies in IT/IS project portfolios: a review of managerial issues

Adequately managing project interdependencies among diverse and simultaneous projects is deemed critical for successful implementation of project portfolios. The challenge is significant because it may entail managing a complex network of project interdependencies that keeps changing over time. The present study investigates the managerial challenges that may undermine effective management of project interdependencies in IT/IS project portfolios. The investigation is based on evidence from reviewing relevant literature and documented studies associated with managing project interdependencies. The main contribution of this study is to discuss three managerial challenges of project interdependencies in project portfolios. We discuss the challenges from three perspectives: types of interdependencies; patterns of interaction in interdependencies; and cost/benefit impact of project interdependencies

IT Sourcing Portfolio Management for IT Services Providers - A Risk/Cost Perspective

Utilizing a global IT sourcing strategy bears enormous growth potential. With the main focus on cost reduction in valuation of sourcing alternatives, risk and risk diversification effects are often inadequately considered or completely neglected. This systematically results in wrong decisions about global sourcing. Correct decisions are in particular important for the success of IT services providers (ITSP), which are the major beneficiaries of the market growth, though being faced with intensifying competition. This paper proposes a decision model for allocating software development projects of an ITSP to available sites in a risk/cost efficient way by adapting Markowitz’s Modern Portfolio Theory to IT sourcing decision making. The suggested approach covers not only costs and sourcing risks but also interdependencies between both sites and projects. Additionally, we propose methods for quantifying the necessary input parameters. We demonstrate the practicability of our approach in a case study with data from a major ITSP

Methods to Support the Project Selection Problem With Non-Linear Portfolio Objectives, Time Sensitive Objectives, Time Sensitive Resource Constraints, and Modeling Inadequacies

The United States Air Force relies upon information production activities to gain insight regarding uncertainties affecting important system configuration and in-mission task execution decisions. Constrained resources that prevent the fulfillment of every information production request, multiple information requestors holding different temporal-sensitive objectives, non-constant marginal value preferences, and information-product aging factors that affect the value-of-information complicate the management of these activities. This dissertation reviews project selection research related to these issues and presents novel methods to address these complications. Quantitative experimentation results demonstrate these methods’ significance

Analysis of System-Wide Investment in the National Airspace System: A Portfolio Analytical Framework and an Example

In this paper, the authors review the FAA s current program investments and lay out a preliminary analytical framework to undertake projects that may address some of the noted deficiencies. By drawing upon the well developed theories from corporate finance, an analytical framework is offered that can be used for choosing FAA s investments taking into account risk, expected returns and inherent dependencies across NAS programs. The framework can be expanded into taking multiple assets and realistic values for parameters in drawing an efficient risk-return frontier for the entire FAA investment programs

A methodology for project portfolio selection under criteria prioritisation, uncertainty and projects interdependency – combination of fuzzy QFD and DEA

© 2018 Elsevier Ltd Resources of an organisation (people, time, money, equipment, etc) are never endless. As such, a constant and continuous challenge for decision makers is to decide which projects should be given priority in terms of receiving critical resources in a way that the organisation's productivity and profitability is best guaranteed. Previous literature has already developed a plenitude of project portfolio selection methodologies ranging from simple scoring to complex mathematical models. However, most of them too often fail to propose one integrated and seamless method that can simultaneously take into account three important elements: (1) prioritisation of selection criteria over each other, (2) uncertainty in decision-making, and (3) projects interdependencies. This paper aims to fill this gap by proposing an integrated method that can simultaneously address all these three aspects. The proposed method combines Quality Function Development (QFD), fuzzy logic, and Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to accounts for prioritisation, uncertainty and interdependency. We then apply this method in a numerical example from a real world case to illustrate the applicability and efficacy of the proposed methodology

The evolution of project portfolio selection methods: from incremental to radical innovation

Abstract Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to identify how project portfolio selection (PPS) methods have evolved and which approaches are more suitable for radical innovation projects. This paper addressed the following research question: how have the selection approaches evolved to better fit within radical innovation conditions? The current literature offers a number of selection approaches with different and, in some cases, conflicting nature. Therefore, there is a lack of understanding regarding when and how to use these approaches in order to select a specific type of innovation projects ( from incremental to more radical ones). Design/methodology/approach – Given the nature of the research question, the authors perform a systematic literature review method and analyze 48 portfolio selection approaches. The authors then classified and characterized these articles in order to identify techniques, tools, required data and types of examined projects, among other aspects. Findings – The authors identify four key features related to the selection of radical innovation projects: dynamism, interdependency management, uncertainty treatment and required input data. Based on the content analysis, the authors identified that approaches based on different sources and nature of data are more appropriated for uncertain conditions, such as behavioral methods, information gap theory, real options and integrated approaches. Originality/value – The research provides a comprehensive framework about PPS methods and how they have been evolving over time. This portfolio selection framework considers the particular aspects of incremental and radical innovation projects. The authors hope that the framework contributes to reinvigorating the literature on selection approaches for innovation projects