Optimal Sequential Investigation Rules in Competition Law

Although both in US antitrust and European competition law there is a clear evolution to a much broader application of "rule of reason" (instead of per-se rules), there is also an increasing awareness of the problems of a case-by-case approach. The "error costs approach" (minimizing the sum of welfare costs of decision errors and administrative costs) allows not only to decide between these two extremes, but also to design optimally differentiated rules (with an optimal depth of investigation) as intermediate solutions between simple per-se rules and a fullscale rule of reason. In this paper we present a decision-theoretic model that can be used as an instrument for deriving optimal rules for a sequential investigation process in competition law. Such a sequential investigation can be interpreted as a step-by-step sorting process into ever smaller subclasses of cases that help to discriminate better between pro- and anticompetitive cases. We analyze both the problem of optimal stopping of the investigation and optimal sequencing of the assessment criteria in an investigation. To illustrate, we show how a more differentiated rule on resale price maintenance could be derived after the rejection of its per-se prohibition by the US Supreme Court in the "Leegin" case 2007.Law Enforcement, Decision-Making, Competition Law, Antitrust Law

Optimal ordering and pricing in a quick response system

Cataloged from PDF version of article.Quick response systems enable retailers to estimate customer demand more accurately, and improve stocking decisions for perishable products with uncertain demand. Retailers place separate orders for a product at two different times before the selling season. Following the initial order, additional market information is obtained, and the second-order amount is decided based on an improved demand forecast. In some cases, purchase cost associated with the second order is uncertain, and demand for the product during the season depends on the selling price. We present a solution procedure for finding the optimal order quantity and selling price in this setting. We also study the case where any desired portion of the initial order can be cancelled after updating the demand forecast. In the numerical study. the optimal price is observed to be relatively insensitive to changes in demand variability. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

Multi-item quick response system with budget constraint

Cataloged from PDF version of article.Quick response mechanisms based on effective use of up-to-date demand information help retailers to reduce their inventory management costs. We formulate a single-period inventory model for multiple products with dependent (multivariate normal) demand distributions and a given overall procurement budget. After placing orders based on an initial demand forecast, new market information is gathered and demand forecast is updated. Using this more accurate second forecast, the retailer decides the total stocking level for the selling season. The second order is based on an improved demand forecast, but it also involves a higher unit supply cost. To determine the optimal ordering policy, we use a computational procedure that entails solving capacitated multi-item newsboy problems embedded within a dynamic programming model. Various numerical examples illustrate the effects of demand variability and financial constraint on the optimal policy. It is found that existence of a budget constraint may lead to an increase in the initial order size. It is also observed that as the budget available decreases, the products with more predictable demand make up a larger share of the procurement expenditure. & 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

Hierarchical Knowledge-Gradient for Sequential Sampling

We consider the problem of selecting the best of a finite but very large set of alternatives. Each alternative may be characterized by a multi-dimensional vector and has independent normal rewards. This problem arises in various settings such as (i) ranking and selection, (ii) simulation optimization where the unknown mean of each alternative is estimated with stochastic simulation output, and (iii) approximate dynamic programming where we need to estimate values based on Monte-Carlo simulation. We use a Bayesian probability model for the unknown reward of each alternative and follow a fully sequential sampling policy called the knowledge-gradient policy. This policy myopically optimizes the expected increment in the value of sampling information in each time period. Because the number of alternatives is large, we propose a hierarchical aggregation technique that uses the common features shared by alternatives to learn about many alternatives from even a single measurement, thus greatly reducing the measurement effort required. We demonstrate how this hierarchical knowledge-gradient policy can be applied to efficiently maximize a continuous function and prove that this policy finds a globally optimal alternative in the limit

Inventory redistribution for fashion products under demand parameter update

Demand for fashion products is usually highly uncertain. Often, there is only one possibility for procurement before the selling season. In order to improve the traditional newsvendor-type overage-underage trade-off we study a network of two expected profit maximizing retailers selling a fashion product where there is an additional opportunity for redistribution of stock during the selling season. We distinguish between the situation where redistribution is done at the moment when one of the retailers is running out of stock and the situation where the redistribution time is already determined and fixed before the selling season. We model the demand process at a retailer by a Poisson Process with an uncertain mean and use a Bayesian approach to update the distribution parameters before transshipments are done. In a numerical study we compare the different policies and show that timing flexibility and updating are especially beneficial in situations with low profit margins and high parameter uncertainty. Further, we show that depending on the instance, an optimal predetermined transshipment timing depends on the problem parameters and may be between the middle and the end of the selling season

Efficient Model Learning for Human-Robot Collaborative Tasks

We present a framework for learning human user models from joint-action demonstrations that enables the robot to compute a robust policy for a collaborative task with a human. The learning takes place completely automatically, without any human intervention. First, we describe the clustering of demonstrated action sequences into different human types using an unsupervised learning algorithm. These demonstrated sequences are also used by the robot to learn a reward function that is representative for each type, through the employment of an inverse reinforcement learning algorithm. The learned model is then used as part of a Mixed Observability Markov Decision Process formulation, wherein the human type is a partially observable variable. With this framework, we can infer, either offline or online, the human type of a new user that was not included in the training set, and can compute a policy for the robot that will be aligned to the preference of this new user and will be robust to deviations of the human actions from prior demonstrations. Finally we validate the approach using data collected in human subject experiments, and conduct proof-of-concept demonstrations in which a person performs a collaborative task with a small industrial robot