2Planning for Contingencies: A Decision-based Approach

A fundamental assumption made by classical AI planners is that there is no uncertainty in the world: the planner has full knowledge of the conditions under which the plan will be executed and the outcome of every action is fully predictable. These planners cannot therefore construct contingency plans, i.e., plans in which different actions are performed in different circumstances. In this paper we discuss some issues that arise in the representation and construction of contingency plans and describe Cassandra, a partial-order contingency planner. Cassandra uses explicit decision-steps that enable the agent executing the plan to decide which plan branch to follow. The decision-steps in a plan result in subgoals to acquire knowledge, which are planned for in the same way as any other subgoals. Cassandra thus distinguishes the process of gathering information from the process of making decisions. The explicit representation of decisions in Cassandra allows a coherent approach to the problems of contingent planning, and provides a solid base for extensions such as the use of different decision-making procedures.Comment: See http://www.jair.org/ for any accompanying file

The role of learning on industrial simulation design and analysis

The capability of modeling real-world system operations has turned simulation into an indispensable problemsolving methodology for business system design and analysis. Today, simulation supports decisions ranging from sourcing to operations to finance, starting at the strategic level and proceeding towards tactical and operational levels of decision-making. In such a dynamic setting, the practice of simulation goes beyond being a static problem-solving exercise and requires integration with learning. This article discusses the role of learning in simulation design and analysis motivated by the needs of industrial problems and describes how selected tools of statistical learning can be utilized for this purpose

Real-time Planning as Decision-making Under Uncertainty

In real-time planning, an agent must select the next action to take within a fixed time bound. Many popular real-time heuristic search methods approach this by expanding nodes using time-limited A* and selecting the action leading toward the frontier node with the lowest f value. In this thesis, we reconsider real-time planning as a problem of decision-making under uncertainty. We treat heuristic values as uncertain evidence and we explore several backup methods for aggregating this evidence. We then propose a novel lookahead strategy that expands nodes to minimize risk, the expected regret in case a non-optimal action is chosen. We evaluate these methods in a simple synthetic benchmark and the sliding tile puzzle and find that they outperform previous methods. This work illustrates how uncertainty can arise even when solving deterministic planning problems, due to the inherent ignorance of time-limited search algorithms about those portions of the state space that they have not computed, and how an agent can benefit from explicitly meta-reasoning about this uncertainty

Contingent task and motion planning under uncertainty for human–robot interactions

Manipulation planning under incomplete information is a highly challenging task for mobile manipulators. Uncertainty can be resolved by robot perception modules or using human knowledge in the execution process. Human operators can also collaborate with robots for the execution of some difficult actions or as helpers in sharing the task knowledge. In this scope, a contingent-based task and motion planning is proposed taking into account robot uncertainty and human–robot interactions, resulting a tree-shaped set of geometrically feasible plans. Different sorts of geometric reasoning processes are embedded inside the planner to cope with task constraints like detecting occluding objects when a robot needs to grasp an object. The proposal has been evaluated with different challenging scenarios in simulation and a real environment.Postprint (published version

Complete contingency planners

A framework is proposed for the investigation of planning systems that must deal with bounded uncertainty. A definition of this new class of contingency planners is given. A general, complete contingency planning algorithm is described. The algorithm is suitable to many incomplete information games as well as planning situations where the initial state is only partially known. A rich domain is identified for the application and evaluation of contingency planners. Preliminary results from applying our complete contingency planner to a portion of this domain are encouraging and match expert level performance

EcoBlock: Grid Impacts, Scaling, and Resilience

Widespread deployment of EcoBlocks has the potential to transform today's electricity system into one that is more resilient, flexible, efficient and sustainable. In this vision, the system will consist of self- su cient, renewable-powered, block-scale entities that can deliberately adjust their net power exchange and can optimize performance, maintain stability, support each other, or disconnect entirely from the grid as needed. This report is intended as an independent analysis of the potential relationships, both constructive and adverse, between EcoBlocks and the grid