Ocean Processes Feeder Report

We assess the physical state of the UK’s seas and so provide a context for the clean, healthy, safe, productive and biologically diverse aspects in the other Charting Progress 2 Feeder Reports. UK annual mean temperature has risen by approximately 1°C since the beginning of the 20th Century. 2006 was the warmest year in central England since records began in the seventeenth century. Sea-surface temperature has risen by between 0.5 and 1 degree C from 1871 to 2000. Warming since the mid 1980s has been more pronounced in regions 2, 5 and 6 (southern North Sea, Irish and Hebridean seas). Oceans are acidifying (pH decreasing) as carbon dioxide is absorbed. We have no baseline measurements of pH against which changes in UK waters can be judged, and it will be some time before we can make accurate judgements about the rate of acidification relative to natural annual and inter- annual cycles of pH. Mean sea level around the UK coast rose by about 1.4mm per year during the 20th century. Circulation, suspended particulate matter, turbidity, salinity and waves vary on daily to inter-annual timescales but show no significant trend over the last decade, except for a slight salinity decrease in region 2 (southern North Sea) and a slight increase in salinity in the (northern) regions 1, 7 and 8

Circulation

Circulation is important to distributions of salt, of deep-ocean heat and hence regional climate, of pollutants and of many species carried by the flow during their lifecycle. Currents affect offshore operations and habitats. Five sections from 1957 to 2004 suggest decline of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulatin (AMOC) but this is within the range of large variability on time-scales of weeks to months. An overall trend has not been determined from the continuous measurements begun in 2004. Deep outflows of cold water from the Nordic seas are likewise too variable to infer any overall trend. Strong North Atlantic flow eastwards towards the UK may correlate with positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index (i.e. prevailing westerly winds). Enhanced along-slope current around the UK may correlate with a negative NAO Index. Climate models’ consensus makes it very likely that AMOC will decrease over the next century, but not ‘shut down’ completely. Similar spatial and temporal variability (arising from complex topography and variable forcing) is likely in future

Potential environmental impact of tidal energy extraction in the Pentland Firth at large spatial scales : results of a biogeochemical model

A model study was carried out of the potential large-scale (> 100 km) effects of marine renewable tidal energy generation in the Pentland Firth, using the 3-D hydrodynamics–biogeochemistry model GETM-ERSEM-BFM. A realistic 800 MW scenario and a high-impact scenario with massive expansion of tidal energy extraction to 8 GW scenario were considered. The realistic 800 MW scenario suggested minor effects on the tides, and undetectable effects on the biogeochemistry. The massive-expansion 8 GW scenario suggested effects would be observed over hundreds of kilometres away with changes of up to 10 % in tidal and ecosystem variables, in particular in a broad area in the vicinity of the Wash. There, waters became less turbid, and primary production increased with associated increases in faunal ecosystem variables. Moreover, a one-off increase in carbon storage in the sea bed was detected. Although these first results suggest positive environmental effects, further investigation is recommended of (i) the residual circulation in the vicinity of the Pentland Firth and effects on larval dispersal using a higher-resolution model and (ii) ecosystem effects with (future) state-of-the-art models if energy extraction substantially beyond 1 GW is planned

Prediction and analysis of long-term variability of temperature and salinity in the Irish Sea

The variability of temperature and salinity in the Irish Sea over the 40 year period 1960 - 1999 is investigated using a free-running fine-resolution local area model. The skill of the model to represent observed temperature and salinity variability is assessed using conductivity-temperature-depth survey data ( 3397 profiles) and a long time series of measurements from Cypris station (southwest of Isle of Man). This clearly demonstrates that the model can reproduce the observed seasonal and longer-term cycles in temperature, with mean and RMS errors of - 0.01 degrees C and 0.78 degrees C. Particularly apparent is the long-term warming trend at Cypris station and throughout the model domain. Model estimates of salinity are less accurate and are generally too saline (mean and RMS errors are 0.79 and 0.98 practical salinity units). Inaccuracies are likely to arise from boundary conditions and forcing (riverine and surface). However, while absolute values are not particularly well represented, the model reproduces many of the trends in the salinity variability observed at Cypris station, suggesting that the dominant physical processes in the Irish Sea, with timescales up to similar to 3 years, are well represented. The model is also used to investigate the variability in temperature stratification. While stratification is confined to approximately the same geographical area in each year of the simulation, there is significant variability in the timing of the onset and breakdown of stratification and in the peak surface to bed temperature difference. Together, these results suggest that a local area model with limited boundary conditions may be sufficiently accurate for climatic investigation of some (locally forced) parameter

Temporal and spatial dynamics of CO2 air-sea flux in the Gulf of Maine

Ocean surface layer carbon dioxide (CO2) data collected in the Gulf of Maine from 2004 to 2008 are presented. Monthly shipboard observations are combined with additional higher‐resolution CO2 observations to characterize CO2 fugacity ( fCO2) and CO2 flux over hourly to interannual time scales. Observed fCO2 andCO2 flux dynamics are dominated by a seasonal cycle, with a large spring influx of CO2 and a fall‐to‐winter efflux back to the atmosphere. The temporal results at inner, middle, and outer shelf locations are highly correlated, and observed spatial variability is generally small relative to the monthly to seasonal temporal changes. The averaged annual flux is in near balance and is a net source of carbon to the atmosphere over 5 years, with a value of +0.38 mol m−2 yr−1. However, moderate interannual variation is also observed, where years 2005 and 2007 represent cases of regional source (+0.71) and sink (−0.11) anomalies. We use moored daily CO2 measurements to quantify aliasing due to temporal undersampling, an important error budget term that is typically unresolved. The uncertainty of our derived annual flux measurement is ±0.26 mol m−2 yr−1 and is dominated by this aliasing term. Comparison of results to the neighboring Middle and South Atlantic Bight coastal shelf systems indicates that the Gulf of Maine exhibits a similar annual cycle and range of oceanic fCO2 magnitude but differs in the seasonal phase. It also differs by enhanced fCO2 controls by factors other than temperature‐driven solubility, including biological drawdown, fall‐to‐winter vertical mixing, and river runoff

Application of mineralogical, petrological and geochemical tools for evaluating the palaeohdrogeological evolution of the PADAMOT study sites

The role of Work Package (WP) 2 of the PADAMOT project – ‘Palaeohydrogeological Data Measurements’ - has been to study late-stage fracture mineral and water samples from groundwater systems in Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom and the Czech Republic, with the aim of understanding the recent palaeohydrogeological evolution of these groundwater systems. In particular, the project sought to develop and evaluate methods for obtaining information about past groundwater evolution during the Quaternary (about the last 2 million years) by examining how the late-stage mineralization might record mineralogical, petrographical and geochemical evidence of how the groundwater system may have responded to past geological and climatological changes. Fracture-flow groundwater systems at six European sites were studied: • Melechov Hill, in the Bohemian Massif of the Czech Republic: a shallow (0-100 m) dilute groundwater flow system within the near-surface weathering zone in fractured granitic rocks; • Cloud Hill, in the English Midlands: a (~100 m) shallow dilute groundwater flow system in fractured and dolomitized Carboniferous limestone; • Los Ratones, in southwest Spain: an intermediate depth (0-500 m) dilute groundwater flow system in fractured granitic rocks; • Laxemar, in southeast Sweden: a deep (0-1000 m) groundwater flow system in fractured granitic rocks. This is a complex groundwater system with potential recharge and flushing by glacial, marine, lacustrine and freshwater during the Quaternary; • Sellafield, northwest England: a deep (0-2000 m) groundwater flow system in fractured Ordovician low-grade metamorphosed volcaniclastic rocks and discontinuous Carboniferous Limestone, overlain by a Permo-Triassic sedimentary sequence with fracture and matrix porosity. This is a complex coastal groundwater system with deep hypersaline sedimentary basinal brines, and deep saline groundwaters in crystalline basement rocks, overlain by a shallow freshwater aquifer system. The site was glaciated several times during the Quaternary and may have been affected by recharge from glacial meltwater; • Dounreay, northeast Scotland: a deep (0-1400 m) groundwater flow system in fractured Precambrian crystalline basement overlain by fractured Devonian sedimentary rocks. This is within the coastal discharge area of a complex groundwater system, comprising deep saline groundwater hosted in crystalline basement, overlain by a fracture-controlled freshwater sedimentary aquifer system. Like Sellafield, this area experienced glaciation and may potentially record the impact of glacial meltwater recharge. In addition, a study has been made of two Quaternary sedimentary sequences in Andalusia in southeastern Spain to provide a basis of estimating the palaeoclimatic history of the region that could be used in any reconstruction of the palaeoclimatic history at the Los Ratones site: • The Cúllar-Baza lacustrine sequence records information about precipitation and palaeotemperature regimes, derived largely from the analysis of the stable isotope (δ18O and δ13C) signatures from biogenic calcite (ostracod shells). • The Padul Peat Bog sequence provided information on past vegetation cover and palaeogroundwater inputs based on the study of fossil pollen and biomarkers as proxies for past climate change. Following on from the earlier EC 4th Framework EQUIP project, the focus of the PADAMOT studies has been on calcite mineralization. Calcite has been identified as a late stage mineral, closely associated with hydraulically-conductive fractures in the present-day groundwater systems at the Äspö-Laxemar, Sellafield, Dounreay and Cloud Hill sites. At Los Ratones and Melechov sites late-stage mineralization is either absent or extremely scarce, and both the quantity and fine crystal size of any late-stage fracture mineralization relevant to Quaternary palaeohydrogeological investigations is difficult to work with. The results from the material investigated during the PADAMOT studies indicate that the fracture fillings at these sites are related to hydrothermal activity, and so do not have direct relevance as Quaternary indicators. Neoformed calcite has not been found at these two sites at the present depth of the investigations. Furthermore, the HCO3 - concentration in all the Los Ratones groundwaters is mainly controlled by complex carbonate dissolution. The carbonate mineral saturation indices do not indicate precipitation conditions, and this is consistent with the fact that neoformed calcite, ankerite or dolomite have not been observed petrographically

Ocean processes. In: Charting progress 2: the state of UK seas, Chapter 2, 14-26

The main changes in ocean processes over the past few decades are largely due to the effects of rising sea surface temperature, rising sea levels and ocean acidity. The changes are already affecting some sensitive ecosystems and could have significant long-term impact

Aspects of the circulation in the Rockall Trough

An investigation is made of the circulation and structure of the water masses in the Rockall Trough in spring, combining the results of a recent synoptic survey (May 1998) with those from a high-resolution ocean circulation model. In the near-surface layer, saline flows are carried northwards by a "Shelf Edge Current" around the eastern slopes, possibly with some branching in the northern Trough. Fresher waters from the west inflow between 52 and 538N and partially mix with these saline flows in the southern Trough, so that waters of intermediate salinity are also swept northwards. In the southern approaches to the Trough, Labrador Sea Water (LSW) also flows strongly in from the west between 52 and 538N, and while much of this turns south, a proportion penetrates north to join a cyclonic gyre in the Trough extending to 56.58N. The northwestern limb of this gyre is fed by, and mixes with, more saline waters which result from overflows across the Wyville–Thomson Ridge. Furthermore, salinity and CFC data suggest episodic inflow of LSW into the central Trough. The circulation of the North East Atlantic Deep Water in the Trough follows a cyclonic pattern similar to, and lying below, that of the LSW. The Wyville–Thomson Ridge overflows in the model extend to higher densities than in the survey, are topographically steered southwestward down the Feni Ridge system, and eventually join a deep cyclonic circulation in the North East Atlantic basin. Overall, the model and the observations are in good agreement, particularly in the central Rockall Trough, and this has allowed conclusions to be drawn which are significantly more robust than those which would result from either the survey or the model alone. In particular, we have been able to infer cyclonic circulation pathways for the intermediate and deeper waters in the Rockall Trough for (we believe) the first time. The study has also contributed to an ongoing community effort to assess the realism of, and improve, our current generation of ocean circulation models

Modelling the behaviour of nutrients in the coastal waters of Scotland

The overall goal of this project was to provide Scotland with a strategic ecosystem simulation tool for identifying maritime areas which could be at risk of eutrophication. The tool should provide spatially resolved output, and be capable of discriminating between different types and locations of nutrient inputs, so as to enable scenario analyses of different reduction options. The specific aims of the project were firstly to simulate the annual cycles of nutrients and ecological properties of Scottish waters and advise on areas which might suffer from eutrophication, and secondly, to determine the contribution of Scottish nutrient discharges to eutrophication in the OSPAR maritime area as a whole