UK hydrological outlook - March 2025

The Hydrological Outlook provides an insight into future hydrological conditions across the UK. Specifically, it describes likely trajectories for river flows and groundwater levels on a monthly basis, with a particular focus on the next three months. Well established monitoring programmes provide the current status of both river flows and groundwater levels at many sites across the UK, and data from these programmes provide the starting point for the Outlook. A number of techniques are used to project forwards from the current state and results from these are used to produce a summary that includes a highlights map

COSMOS-UK. Soil moisture: March 2025

The COSMOS-UK soil moisture status report provides an insight into the current soil moisture conditions across the UK as monitored by the COSMOS-UK network. The network comprises approximately 50 sites at which a cosmic ray neutron sensor is deployed to monitor soil moisture within a footprint of about 12 hectares. The report is comprised of: maps of end of month soil moisture both as volumetric water content and as a soil moisture index; a short description of current status; and selected time series graphs showing data from the last three years

Surveying the deep: A review of computer vision in the benthos

The analysis of image data for benthic biodiversity monitoring is now commonplace within the domain of marine ecology. Whilst advances in imaging technologies have allowed for the collection of vast quantities of data, the curation of this has traditionally been performed manually, resulting in a bottleneck whereby data is collected faster than it can be processed. Recent years have seen marine ecologists turn to the domain of computer vision to help automate this curation process. However, as the knowledge required to build such systems spans both domains, there is a high barrier to entry. To help reduce this barrier, this paper aims to provide an introduction to computer vision-based benthic biodiversity monitoring via a comprehensive literature review. To aid ecologists, key computer vision concepts are described and example use-cases highlighted. The major challenges inherent to benthic imagery for computer vision systems are explored, alongside a discussion of how current systems attempt to mitigate against these. To aid computer scientists wishing to enter the domain, an exploration of currently available open-source benthic datasets is also provided. Recommendations for future research are explored, including a move towards human-centric techniques, committing to ablation studies, reaching community agreement on open-source benchmarking datasets, and an increased use of innovative methods to allow for improved answering of key benthic ecology questions

Aeolian dust and diatoms at Roosevelt Island (Ross Sea, Antarctica) over the last 2 millennia reveal the local expression of climate changes and the history of the Ross Sea polynya

The pattern of atmospheric and climate changes recorded by coastal Antarctic ice core sites and the processes they illustrate highlight the importance of multiproxy studies on ice cores drilled from such peripheral areas, where regional- to local-scale processes can be documented. Here, we present a 2 kyr long record of aeolian mineral dust and diatoms windblown to Roosevelt Island, obtained from the Roosevelt Island Climate Evolution project (RICE) ice core. Mineral dust and diatoms are highly complementary at RICE, since they are related to the large-scale South Pacific atmospheric circulation regime, carrying dust-rich air masses that travelled above the marine boundary layer, and local oceanic aerosol transport by low-level marine air masses, respectively. The period from 550 to 1470 CE is marked by increased mineral dust transport from Southern Hemisphere continents, a reduction in sea ice cover in the Eastern Ross Sea (ERS) and Amundsen Sea (AS), and more frequent incursions of humid air masses, which contributed to a relative rise in snow accumulation. After 1470 CE, relatively lower dust and snow deposition at RICE suggests an increase in pack ice in the eastern Ross and Amundsen seas. This period is characterized by prominent peaks of sea-ice-related aeolian diatoms that are unprecedented over the last 2 kyr, indicating a rapid reorganization of atmospheric circulation. Data suggest an eastward enlargement of the Ross Sea polynya culminating with the opening of the proposed Roosevelt Island polynya and an increased influence of low-level marine air masses to the site during the Little Ice Age (LIA)

Changes in atmospheric oxidants teleconnect biomass burning and ammonium nitrate formation

Open biomass burning has major impacts on the Earth system, including on air quality via the emission of primary fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ). Its effect on secondary inorganic PM 2.5 formation is comparatively little investigated. Simulations with the EMEP MSC-W WRF atmospheric chemistry transport model reveal that global biomass burning emissions lead to elevated annual mean ammonium nitrate (NH 4 NO 3 ) concentrations in densely populated regions where biomass burning mostly does not occur. These regions include eastern USA, northwestern Europe, the Indo-Gangetic Plain and eastern China, where NH 4 NO 3 conditional on biomass burning emissions constitutes between 29% and 51% of the annual mean PM 2.5 conditional on biomass burning emissions. Biomass burning emissions of CO, NO x (NO and NO 2 ) and volatile organic compounds perturb the HO x (OH and HO 2 ) cycle globally, such that there is increased oxidation of anthropogenic NO x to HNO 3 . This results in additional contributions to local-scale secondary NH 4 NO 3 in areas with high emissions of anthropogenic NO x and NH 3 . These teleconnections increase, by up to a factor of two, the contribution of biomass burning emissions to long-term PM 2.5 concentrations, which measurements alone cannot identify as an impact of biomass burning activity. This may become relatively more important as anthropogenic sources of PM 2.5 are reduced and as the wildfire component of biomass burning increases under climate change

Modelling the impact of large-scale hydroclimate change on prehistoric Polynesian island life

The South Pacific was one of the last regions on earth to be colonised by humans and offers a unique opportunity to study early climate-human interactions in environments previously untouched by people. Palaeoclimate evidence suggests the South Pacific has experienced shifts between dry and wet periods throughout the past three thousand years, the broad period of colonisation, with extremes in both modes being prevalent. Drought has significant repercussions for small Pacific islands, affecting water and food resources, with potential consequences on the viability of life on these islands leading to internal stress, conflict, collapse or migration. Previously, socio-ecological models have been developed to test mechanisms of change within prehistoric societies worldwide that can lead to migration or societal change, but thus far the connections between past climatic change and prehistoric island life within the tropical South Pacific have not been fully explored. This study utilises palaeoclimatic data alongside a new system dynamics socio-ecological model to explore the relationship between climate, agricultural carrying capacity and population dynamics on the Polynesian island of Mangaia (Cook Islands) in the tropical South Pacific. Model results suggest that as the population density of the island increases, the impact of drought events on population dynamics increases. We also show that the severity of the drought rather than the return frequency drove the largest changes in carrying capacity and population dynamics. Changes in long-term rainfall leading to persistent dry conditions impacted the timing and rate of population growth due to its role as a limiting factor for agricultural productivity. We compare our modelled results with the known history of population stress and societal change from Mangaia and found these corresponded with drought periods and low food availability. We demonstrate the potential for droughts to have impacted on the early colonisation and societal change on Eastern Polynesian islands

Stakeholder views on the implementation of the UK’s Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR) National Action Plan (2019–2024) in relation to AMR in the environment

•Background: Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in the environment is an important component of One Health AMR research and is increasingly incorporated into AMR National Action Plans (NAPs), including the UK’s AMR NAP ‘Tackling antimicrobial resistance 2019–2024’. However, implementation of the environmental commitments has yet to be evaluated. •Objective: In this study, we aimed to understand UK stakeholder perspectives on the delivery and implementation of the environmental components of the UK’s AMR NAP 2019–2024, with a particular focus on wastewater, which could be used to inform the 2024–2029 NAP. •Methods: We undertook semi-structured, qualitative interviews with informed UK stakeholders to discuss how the NAP had been implemented and future directions relevant to environmental AMR. •Results: Two main themes emerged from the interviews: 1) the perception of ‘risk’, and 2) barriers that have hampered policy action. Some wanted more evidence to inform policy and mitigations, particularly concerning the relative risk posed by different pollution sources in driving and maintaining AMR in the environment, and the risk posed by transmission of AMR from the environment to humans. Where evidence was lacking, several academics and regulators proposed that policy action could be justified based on the precautionary principle. •Conclusions: Although we do not know the impact environmental exposure plays in driving clinical AMR infections relative to other sources, evidence suggests that exposure to environmental and wastewater sources may play a role, and thus requires policy interventions. Government leadership is critical for ensuring the uptake of environmental AMR research to inform mitigation and interventions based on the precautionary principle

Empowering researchers through data stewardship and digital training to adapt to new data services

In an increasingly digital research landscape, the importance of open and FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, Reusable) data practices are becoming more apparent. Technology advances open up new ways of discovering and re-using large volumes of data, however they can also require a higher entry-point for users, who must have the digital literacy to be able to interact with these emerging technologies and interfaces. As such, education remains a key tool for providing researchers with the skills and knowledge to understand how to adapt these technologies to their own scientific discipline, and ensure their own datasets are compatible for use by both humans and machines. Here, we explore the uses of training and data stewardship for improving researcher digital skills, from developing practical day-to-day approaches in research data management, through to increasing awareness and understanding of how to interact with complex digital systems effectively. While some research groups often have a range of digital skills, these are often either self-taught or learnt only for a specific purpose, limiting how data can be reused. By engaging with researchers across different disciplines and backgrounds, we can lower that entry point for interacting with NERC data services, allowing more efficient and increased opportunities data re-use. This engagement includes both one-on-one data stewardship throughout a project to use a specific service, as well as wider training for key staff within a research organisation to develop and promote best practices which can be disseminated throughout their teams and incorporated into future research. By engaging with researchers early on in the project lifecycle, we can bridge the gap between what users require from NERC data services, what services and guidance we provide, and showcase the benefits and opportunities of open and FAIR data. This ensures that researchers have the capabilities to interact with new digital research infrastructures efficiently, which not only reduces barriers to accessing environmental data, but also increases it’s potential for re-use in new innovative ways

Tackling temporary names: interim solutions for the taxonomic impediment

Against a background of the climate and biodiversity crises, there is an urgent need for robust and citable biodiversity information for policy and management decisions. Species are fundamental units of biodiversity and underpin communication in biology. Delineating, describing, and naming species provide the foundation for tracking biodiversity. Taxonomists recognise over 2 million described species, the scientific names of which follow provisions of codes of nomenclature, providing stability for communication about biodiversity. However, described species represent only a fraction of global biodiversity. Current advances in the fields of molecular biology and the growing use of image-based identifications have resulted in an explosion of informal species names globally, herein referred to as temporary names, increasing the rate of discovery of undescribed species and cryptic species complexes. We define two categories of temporary names: Type 1 names that are delineated in a local context but not further assessed; and Type 2 names that have been taxonomically assessed and recognised as either new or part of an unresolved species complex. We explore the different types and uses of temporary names, indicate how they can be managed in a robust and standardised manner and demonstrate how biodiversity databases, such as WoRMS, can be expanded to allow the tracking of both formal and informal scientific names. We propose a solution for the expanding problem of temporary names by defining and recommending the addition of Type 2 temporary names to nomenclatural databases such as WoRMS. We provide practical recommendations on how such names should be selected for entry and then entered to databases in a standardised way. These recommendations are a small step forward, but their broad adoption would support the robust integration of informal and formal taxonomies

Mixed provenance of organic carbon in Northeast Atlantic temperate intertidal seagrass sediments

Blue carbon accreditation for climate mitigation services provided by coastal ecosystems, such as seagrass beds, typically account only for autochthonous organic carbon, potentially underestimating the total carbon sequestration capacity of seagrass ecosystems. Here, a multi-proxy approach is used to determine the provenance of organic carbon in two intertidal temperate seagrass ecosystems in the Northeast Atlantic. The organic carbon to nitrogen ratio (Corg/N) and carbon isotope composition (δ13C) of seagrass tissues and sediments from an open coastal sandy site (Ryde, UK) and a muddy tidal inlet site (Farlington Marshes, UK) were measured. Sedimentary Corg/N was higher at the muddy site than the sandy site, suggesting a greater contribution of marine algal organic matter in the latter. Isotopic mixing model analysis showed that seagrass biomass contributes between 12 and 25% to accumulated sedimentary Corg. These findings demonstrate that temperate Northeast Atlantic seagrass sediments are dominated by allochthonous Corg (75–88%) and that current blue carbon accreditation frameworks undervalue these ecosystems. Supporting the estimation and uptake of high integrity field-derived allochthonous deduction evidence would assist uptake of these frameworks to support implementation of nature-based solutions