Statistical Physics Analysis of Maximum a Posteriori Estimation for Multi-channel Hidden Markov Models

The performance of Maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation is studied analytically for binary symmetric multi-channel Hidden Markov processes. We reduce the estimation problem to a 1D Ising spin model and define order parameters that correspond to different characteristics of the MAP-estimated sequence. The solution to the MAP estimation problem has different operational regimes separated by first order phase transitions. The transition points for $L$-channel system with identical noise levels, are uniquely determined by $L$ being odd or even, irrespective of the actual number of channels. We demonstrate that for lower noise intensities, the number of solutions is uniquely determined for odd $L$, whereas for even $L$ there are exponentially many solutions. We also develop a semi analytical approach to calculate the estimation error without resorting to brute force simulations. Finally, we examine the tradeoff between a system with single low-noise channel and one with multiple noisy channels.Comment: The paper has been submitted to Journal of Statistical Physics with submission number JOSS-S-12-0039

Bayesian Structural Inference for Hidden Processes

We introduce a Bayesian approach to discovering patterns in structurally complex processes. The proposed method of Bayesian Structural Inference (BSI) relies on a set of candidate unifilar HMM (uHMM) topologies for inference of process structure from a data series. We employ a recently developed exact enumeration of topological epsilon-machines. (A sequel then removes the topological restriction.) This subset of the uHMM topologies has the added benefit that inferred models are guaranteed to be epsilon-machines, irrespective of estimated transition probabilities. Properties of epsilon-machines and uHMMs allow for the derivation of analytic expressions for estimating transition probabilities, inferring start states, and comparing the posterior probability of candidate model topologies, despite process internal structure being only indirectly present in data. We demonstrate BSI's effectiveness in estimating a process's randomness, as reflected by the Shannon entropy rate, and its structure, as quantified by the statistical complexity. We also compare using the posterior distribution over candidate models and the single, maximum a posteriori model for point estimation and show that the former more accurately reflects uncertainty in estimated values. We apply BSI to in-class examples of finite- and infinite-order Markov processes, as well to an out-of-class, infinite-state hidden process.Comment: 20 pages, 11 figures, 1 table; supplementary materials, 15 pages, 11 figures, 6 tables; http://csc.ucdavis.edu/~cmg/compmech/pubs/bsihp.ht

Computing the likelihood of sequence segmentation under Markov modelling

I tackle the problem of partitioning a sequence into homogeneous segments, where homogeneity is defined by a set of Markov models. The problem is to study the likelihood that a sequence is divided into a given number of segments. Here, the moments of this likelihood are computed through an efficient algorithm. Unlike methods involving Hidden Markov Models, this algorithm does not require probability transitions between the models. Among many possible usages of the likelihood, I present a maximum \textit{a posteriori} probability criterion to predict the number of homogeneous segments into which a sequence can be divided, and an application of this method to find CpG islands

Forecasting trends with asset prices

In this paper, we consider a stochastic asset price model where the trend is an unobservable Ornstein Uhlenbeck process. We first review some classical results from Kalman filtering. Expectedly, the choice of the parameters is crucial to put it into practice. For this purpose, we obtain the likelihood in closed form, and provide two on-line computations of this function. Then, we investigate the asymptotic behaviour of statistical estimators. Finally, we quantify the effect of a bad calibration with the continuous time mis-specified Kalman filter. Numerical examples illustrate the difficulty of trend forecasting in financial time series.Comment: 26 pages, 11 figure