On Estimating the Size and Confidence of a Statistical Audit

We consider the problem of statistical sampling for auditing elections, and we develop a remarkably simple and easily-calculated upper bound for the sample size necessary for determining with probability at least c whether a given set of n objects contains b or more “bad” objects. While the size of the optimal sample drawn without replacement can be determined with a computer program, our goal is to derive a highly accurate and simple formula that can be used by election officials equipped with only a simple calculator

Estimating regional unemployment with mobile network data for Functional Urban Areas in Germany

The ongoing growth of cities due to better job opportunities is leading to increased labour-relatedcommuter flows in several countries. On the one hand, an increasing number of people commuteand move to the cities, but on the other hand, the labour market indicates higher unemployment ratesin urban areas than in the surrounding areas. We investigate this phenomenon on regional level byan alternative definition of unemployment rates in which commuting behaviour is integrated. Wecombine data from the Labour Force Survey (LFS) with dynamic mobile network data by small areamodels for the federal state North Rhine-Westphalia in Germany. From a methodical perspective, weuse a transformed Fay-Herriot model with bias correction for the estimation of unemployment ratesand propose a parametric bootstrap for the Mean Squared Error (MSE) estimation that includes thebias correction. The performance of the proposed methodology is evaluated in a case study based onofficial data and in model-based simulations. The results in the application show that unemploymentrates (adjusted by commuters) in German cities are lower than traditional official unemployment ratesindicate

Post-Election Audits: Restoring Trust in Elections

With the intention of assisting legislators, election officials and the public to make sense of recent literature on post-election audits and convert it into realistic audit practices, the Brennan Center and the Samuelson Law, Technology and Public Policy Clinic at Boalt Hall School of Law (University of California Berkeley) convened a blue ribbon panel (the "Audit Panel") of statisticians, voting experts, computer scientists and several of the nation's leading election officials. Following a review of the literature and extensive consultation with the Audit Panel, the Brennan Center and the Samuelson Clinic make several practical recommendations for improving post-election audits, regardless of the audit method that a jurisdiction ultimately decides to adopt

A representative sampling plan for auditing health insurance claims

A stratified sampling plan to audit health insurance claims is offered. The stratification is by dollar amount of the claim. The plan is representative in the sense that with high probability for each stratum, the difference in the average dollar amount of the claim in the sample and the average dollar amount in the population, is ``small.'' Several notions of ``small'' are presented. The plan then yields a relatively small total sample size with the property that the overall average dollar amount in the sample is close to the average dollar amount in the population. Three different estimators and corresponding lower confidence bounds for over (under) payments are studied.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/074921707000000094 in the IMS Lecture Notes Monograph Series (http://www.imstat.org/publications/lecnotes.htm) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Enhancing the water point mapping: a WASH approach

Strategic planning and appropriate development and management of water and sanitation services can be strongly supported by accurate and accessible data. If adequately exploited, these data might assist water managers with performance monitoring, benchmarking comparisons, policy progress evaluation, resources allocation, and decision making. A variety of tools and techniques are in place to collect such information. However, some methodological weaknesses arise when developing an instrument for routine data collection, particularly at local level: (i) comparability problems due to heterogeneity of data and sector-re lated indicators, (ii) in adequate combination of different information sources, and (iii) statistical validity of collected data. The purpose of this study is to adopt an integrated water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) approach for data collection at community level in rural low income settings, as an attempt to overcome previous shortcomings. The survey design takes the Water Point Mapping (WPM) as a starting point to record all available water sources at a particular location, and this information is then linked to data provided from a household-based survey. In order to demonstrate the applicability of the method, a case study is presented at Tiraque Valley (Cochabamba, Bolivia).Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Evaluation of the East Bay Municipal Utility District's Pilot of WaterSmart Home Water Reports

This report presents the results of an independent evaluation of the East Bay Municipal Utility District's (EBMUD) year-long pilot project (Pilot) of WaterSmart Software's Home Water Reports (HWRs) service.The Pilot was intended to address three primary questions:First, would an SNB efficiency program like WaterSmart result in measurable reductionsin household water use?Second, would it increase rates of participation in other EBMUD conservation programs? Third, would it increase household knowledge and awareness of water consumption andways to use water more efficiently

Bayesian discovery sampling: A simple model of Bayesian inference in auditing

Auditing;Sampling;accountancy