Time-Aware Probabilistic Knowledge Graphs

The emergence of open information extraction as a tool for constructing and expanding knowledge graphs has aided the growth of temporal data, for instance, YAGO, NELL and Wikidata. While YAGO and Wikidata maintain the valid time of facts, NELL records the time point at which a fact is retrieved from some Web corpora. Collectively, these knowledge graphs (KG) store facts extracted from Wikipedia and other sources. Due to the imprecise nature of the extraction tools that are used to build and expand KG, such as NELL, the facts in the KG are weighted (a confidence value representing the correctness of a fact). Additionally, NELL can be considered as a transaction time KG because every fact is associated with extraction date. On the other hand, YAGO and Wikidata use the valid time model because they maintain facts together with their validity time (temporal scope). In this paper, we propose a bitemporal model (that combines transaction and valid time models) for maintaining and querying bitemporal probabilistic knowledge graphs. We study coalescing and scalability of marginal and MAP inference. Moreover, we show that complexity of reasoning tasks in atemporal probabilistic KG carry over to the bitemporal setting. Finally, we report our evaluation results of the proposed model

Verification of Linear Optical Quantum Computing using Quantum Process Calculus

We explain the use of quantum process calculus to describe and analyse linear optical quantum computing (LOQC). The main idea is to define two processes, one modelling a linear optical system and the other expressing a specification, and prove that they are behaviourally equivalent. We extend the theory of behavioural equivalence in the process calculus Communicating Quantum Processes (CQP) to include multiple particles (namely photons) as information carriers, described by Fock states or number states. We summarise the theory in this paper, including the crucial result that equivalence is a congruence, meaning that it is preserved by embedding in any context. In previous work, we have used quantum process calculus to model LOQC but without verifying models against specifications. In this paper, for the first time, we are able to carry out verification. We illustrate this approach by describing and verifying two models of an LOQC CNOT gate.Comment: In Proceedings EXPRESS/SOS 2014, arXiv:1408.127

Evaluating probabilistic forecasts with scoringRules

Probabilistic forecasts in the form of probability distributions over future events have become popular in several fields including meteorology, hydrology, economics, and demography. In typical applications, many alternative statistical models and data sources can be used to produce probabilistic forecasts. Hence, evaluating and selecting among competing methods is an important task. The scoringRules package for R provides functionality for comparative evaluation of probabilistic models based on proper scoring rules, covering a wide range of situations in applied work. This paper discusses implementation and usage details, presents case studies from meteorology and economics, and points to the relevant background literature

Robustness-Driven Resilience Evaluation of Self-Adaptive Software Systems

An increasingly important requirement for certain classes of software-intensive systems is the ability to self-adapt their structure and behavior at run-time when reacting to changes that may occur to the system, its environment, or its goals. A major challenge related to self-adaptive software systems is the ability to provide assurances of their resilience when facing changes. Since in these systems, the components that act as controllers of a target system incorporate highly complex software, there is the need to analyze the impact that controller failures might have on the services delivered by the system. In this paper, we present a novel approach for evaluating the resilience of self-adaptive software systems by applying robustness testing techniques to the controller to uncover failures that can affect system resilience. The approach for evaluating resilience, which is based on probabilistic model checking, quantifies the probability of satisfaction of system properties when the target system is subject to controller failures. The feasibility of the proposed approach is evaluated in the context of an industrial middleware system used to monitor and manage highly populated networks of devices, which was implemented using the Rainbow framework for architecture-based self-adaptation

Learning Tuple Probabilities

Learning the parameters of complex probabilistic-relational models from labeled training data is a standard technique in machine learning, which has been intensively studied in the subfield of Statistical Relational Learning (SRL), but---so far---this is still an under-investigated topic in the context of Probabilistic Databases (PDBs). In this paper, we focus on learning the probability values of base tuples in a PDB from labeled lineage formulas. The resulting learning problem can be viewed as the inverse problem to confidence computations in PDBs: given a set of labeled query answers, learn the probability values of the base tuples, such that the marginal probabilities of the query answers again yield in the assigned probability labels. We analyze the learning problem from a theoretical perspective, cast it into an optimization problem, and provide an algorithm based on stochastic gradient descent. Finally, we conclude by an experimental evaluation on three real-world and one synthetic dataset, thus comparing our approach to various techniques from SRL, reasoning in information extraction, and optimization