Prediction of fruit rot disease incidence in Arecanut based on weather parameters

Received: July 19th, 2022 ; Accepted: October 20th, 2022 ; Published: November 22nd, 2022 ; Correspondence: [email protected] occurrence of pests and diseases in arecanut crops has always been an important factor affecting the total production of arecanut. Arecanut is always dependent on environmental factors during its growth. Thus monitoring and early prediction of the occurrence of the disease would be very helpful for prevention and therefore more crop production. Here, we propose artificial intelligence-based deep learning models for fruit rot disease prediction. Historical data on fruit rot incidence in representative areas of arecanut production in Udupi along with historical weather data are the parameters used to develop region-specific models for the Udupi district. The fruit rot disease incidence score value is predicted using recurrent neural network variants (i.e., Vanilla LSTM, Vanilla GRU, stacked LSTM, and Bidirectional LSTM) for the first time. The predictive performance of the proposed models is evaluated by mean square error (MSE) along with the 5-fold cross-validation technique. Further, compared to other deep learning and machine learning models, the Vanilla LSTM model gives 1.5 MSE, while the Vanilla GRU model gives 1.3 MSE making it the best prediction model for arecanut fruit rot disease

Causality and Explainability for Trustworthy Integrated Pest Management

Pesticides serve as a common tool in agricultural pest control but significantly contribute to the climate crisis. To combat this, Integrated Pest Management (IPM) stands as a climate-smart alternative. Despite its potential, IPM faces low adoption rates due to farmers' skepticism about its effectiveness. To address this challenge, we introduce an advanced data analysis framework tailored to enhance IPM adoption. Our framework provides i) robust pest population predictions across diverse environments with invariant and causal learning, ii) interpretable pest presence predictions using transparent models, iii) actionable advice through counterfactual explanations for in-season IPM interventions, iv) field-specific treatment effect estimations, and v) assessments of the effectiveness of our advice using causal inference. By incorporating these features, our framework aims to alleviate skepticism and encourage wider adoption of IPM practices among farmers.Comment: Accepted at NeurIPS 2023 Workshop on Tackling Climate Change with Machine Learning: Blending New and Existing Knowledge System

Machine learning for detection and prediction of crop diseases and pests: A comprehensive survey

Considering the population growth rate of recent years, a doubling of the current worldwide crop productivity is expected to be needed by 2050. Pests and diseases are a major obstacle to achieving this productivity outcome. Therefore, it is very important to develop efficient methods for the automatic detection, identification, and prediction of pests and diseases in agricultural crops. To perform such automation, Machine Learning (ML) techniques can be used to derive knowledge and relationships from the data that is being worked on. This paper presents a literature review on ML techniques used in the agricultural sector, focusing on the tasks of classification, detection, and prediction of diseases and pests, with an emphasis on tomato crops. This survey aims to contribute to the development of smart farming and precision agriculture by promoting the development of techniques that will allow farmers to decrease the use of pesticides and chemicals while preserving and improving their crop quality and production.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Technologies for climate change adaptation: agricultural sector

This Guidebook presents a selection of technologies for climate change adaptation in the agricultural sector. A set of twenty two adaptation technologies are showcased that are primarily based on the principals of agroecology, but also include scientific technologies of climate and biological sciences complemented with important sociological and institutional capacity building processes that are required to make adaptation function. The technologies cover monitoring and forecasting the climate, sustainable water use and management, soil management, sustainable crop management, seed conservation, sustainable forest management and sustainable livestock management. Technologies that tend to homogenize the natural environment and agricultural production have low possibilities of success in conditions of environmental stress that are likely to result from climate change. On the other hand, technologies that allow for, and indeed promote, diversity are more likely to provide a strategy which strengthens agricultural production in the face of uncertain future climate change scenarios. In this sense, the twenty two technologies showcased in this Guidebook have been selected because they facilitate the conservation and restoration of diversity while at the same time providing opportunities for increasing agricultural productivity. Many of these technologies are not new to agricultural production practices, but they are implemented based on assessment of current and possible future impacts of climate change in a particular location. Agro-ecology is an approach that encompasses concepts of sustainable production and biodiversity promotion and therefore provides a useful framework for identifying and selecting appropriate adaptation technologies for the agricultural sector. The Guidebook provides a systematic analysis of the most relevant information available on climate change adaptation technologies in the agriculture sector. It has been compiled based on a literature review of key publications, journal articles, and e-platforms, and by drawing on documented experiences sourced from a range of organizations working on projects and programmes concerned with climate change adaptation technologies in the agricultural sector. Its geographic scope is focused on developing countries where high levels of poverty, agricultural production, climate variability and biological diversity currently intersect. Key concepts around climate change adaptation are not universally agreed. It is therefore important to understand local contexts – especially social and cultural norms - when working with national and sub-national stakeholders to make informed decisions about appropriate technology options. Thus, decision-making processes should be participative, facilitated, and consensus-building oriented and should be based on the following key guiding principles: increasing awareness and knowledge, strengthening institutions, protecting natural resources, providing financial assistance and developing context-specific strategies. For decision-making the Community–Based Adaptation framework is proposed for creating inclusive governance that engages a range of stakeholders directly with local or district government and national coordinating bodies, and facilitates participatory planning, monitoring and implementation of adaptation activities. Seven criteria are suggested for the prioritization of adaptation technologies: (i) The extent to which the technology maintains or strengthens biological diversity and is environmentally sustainable; (ii) The extent to which the technology facilitates access to information systems and awareness of climate change information; (iii) Whether the technology support water, carbon and nutrient cycles and enables stable and/or increased productivity; (iv) Income-generating potential, cost-benefit analysis and contribution to improved equity; (v) Respect for cultural diversity and facilitation of inter-cultural exchange; (vi) Potential for integration into regional and national policies and can be scaled-up; (vii) The extent to which the technology builds formal and information institutions and social networks. Finally, recommendations are set out for practitioners and policy makers: • There is an urgent need for improved climate modelling and forecasting which can provide a basis for informed decision-making and the implementation of adaptation strategies. This should include traditional knowledge. • Information is also required to better understand the behaviour of plants, animals, pests and diseases as they react to climate change. • Potential changes in economic and social systems in the future under different climate scenarios should also be investigated so that the implications of adaptation strategy and planning choices are better understood. • It is important to secure effective flows of information through appropriate dissemination channels. This is vital for building adaptive capacity and decision-making processes. • Improved analysis of adaptation technologies is required to show how they can contribute to building adaptive capacity and resilience in the agricultural sector. This information needs to be compiled and disseminated for a range of stakeholders from local to national level. • Relationships between policy makers, researchers and communities should be built so that technologies and planning processes are developed in partnership, responding to producers’ needs and integrating their knowledge

Symptoms Based Image Predictive Analysis for Citrus Orchards Using Machine Learning Techniques: A Review

In Agriculture, orchards are the deciding factor in the country’s economy. There are many orchards, and citrus and sugarcane will cover 60 percent of them. These citrus orchards satisfy the necessity of citrus fruits and citrus products, and these citrus fruits contain more vitamin C. The citrus orchards have had some problems generating good yields and quality products. Pathogenic diseases, pests, and water shortages are the three main problems that plants face. Farmers can find these problems early on with the support of machine learning and deep learning, which may also change how they feel about technology.  By doing this in agriculture, the farmers can cut off the major issues of yield and quality losses. This review gives enormous methods for identifying and classifying plant pathogens, pests, and water stresses using image-based work. In this review, the researchers present detailed information about citrus pathogens, pests, and water deficits. Methods and techniques that are currently available will be used to validate the problem. These will include pre-processing for intensification, segmentation, feature extraction, and selection processes, machine learning-based classifiers, and deep learning models. In this work, researchers thoroughly examine and outline the various research opportunities in the field. This review provides a comprehensive analysis of citrus plants and orchards; Researchers used a systematic review to ensure comprehensive coverage of this topic

Artificial Neural Networks in Agriculture

Modern agriculture needs to have high production efficiency combined with a high quality of obtained products. This applies to both crop and livestock production. To meet these requirements, advanced methods of data analysis are more and more frequently used, including those derived from artificial intelligence methods. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are one of the most popular tools of this kind. They are widely used in solving various classification and prediction tasks, for some time also in the broadly defined field of agriculture. They can form part of precision farming and decision support systems. Artificial neural networks can replace the classical methods of modelling many issues, and are one of the main alternatives to classical mathematical models. The spectrum of applications of artificial neural networks is very wide. For a long time now, researchers from all over the world have been using these tools to support agricultural production, making it more efficient and providing the highest-quality products possible

Big Earth Data and Machine Learning for Sustainable and Resilient Agriculture

Big streams of Earth images from satellites or other platforms (e.g., drones and mobile phones) are becoming increasingly available at low or no cost and with enhanced spatial and temporal resolution. This thesis recognizes the unprecedented opportunities offered by the high quality and open access Earth observation data of our times and introduces novel machine learning and big data methods to properly exploit them towards developing applications for sustainable and resilient agriculture. The thesis addresses three distinct thematic areas, i.e., the monitoring of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), the monitoring of food security and applications for smart and resilient agriculture. The methodological innovations of the developments related to the three thematic areas address the following issues: i) the processing of big Earth Observation (EO) data, ii) the scarcity of annotated data for machine learning model training and iii) the gap between machine learning outputs and actionable advice. This thesis demonstrated how big data technologies such as data cubes, distributed learning, linked open data and semantic enrichment can be used to exploit the data deluge and extract knowledge to address real user needs. Furthermore, this thesis argues for the importance of semi-supervised and unsupervised machine learning models that circumvent the ever-present challenge of scarce annotations and thus allow for model generalization in space and time. Specifically, it is shown how merely few ground truth data are needed to generate high quality crop type maps and crop phenology estimations. Finally, this thesis argues there is considerable distance in value between model inferences and decision making in real-world scenarios and thereby showcases the power of causal and interpretable machine learning in bridging this gap.Comment: Phd thesi