The MATSim Network Flow Model for Traffic Simulation Adapted to Large-Scale Emergency Egress and an Application to the Evacuation of the Indonesian City of Padang in Case of a Tsunami Warning

The evacuation of whole cities or even regions is an important problem, as demonstrated by recent events such as evacuation of Houston in the case of Hurricane Rita or the evacuation of coastal cities in the case of Tsunamis. This paper describes a complex evacuation simulation framework for the city of Pandang, with approximately 1,000,000 inhabitants. Padang faces a high risk of being inundated by a tsunami wave. The evacuation simulation is based on the MATSim framework for large-scale transport simulations. Different optimization parameters like evacuation distance, evacuation time, or the variation of the advance warning time are investigated. The results are given as overall evacuation times, evacuation curves, an detailed GIS analysis of the evacuation directions. All these results are discussed with regard to their usability for evacuation recommendations.BMBF, 03G0666E, Verbundprojekt FW: Last-mile Evacuation; Vorhaben: Evakuierungsanalyse und Verkehrsoptimierung, Evakuierungsplan einer Stadt - Sonderprogramm GEOTECHNOLOGIENBMBF, 03NAPAI4, Transport und Verkehr: Verbundprojekt ADVEST: Adaptive Verkehrssteuerung; Teilprojekt Verkehrsplanung und Verkehrssteuerung in Megacitie

"Last-Mile" preparation for a potential disaster

Extreme natural events, like e.g. tsunamis or earthquakes, regularly lead to catastrophes with dramatic consequences. In recent years natural disasters caused hundreds of thousands of deaths, destruction of infrastructure, disruption of economic activity and loss of billions of dollars worth of property and thus revealed considerable deficits hindering their effective management: Needs for stakeholders, decision-makers as well as for persons concerned include systematic risk identification and evaluation, a way to assess countermeasures, awareness raising and decision support systems to be employed before, during and after crisis situations. The overall goal of this study focuses on interdisciplinary integration of various scientific disciplines to contribute to a tsunami early warning information system. In comparison to most studies our focus is on high-end geometric and thematic analysis to meet the requirements of small-scale, heterogeneous and complex coastal urban systems. Data, methods and results from engineering, remote sensing and social sciences are interlinked and provide comprehensive information for disaster risk assessment, management and reduction. In detail, we combine inundation modeling, urban morphology analysis, population assessment, socio-economic analysis of the population and evacuation modeling. The interdisciplinary results eventually lead to recommendations for mitigation strategies in the fields of spatial planning or coping capacity

Tsunami generation by dynamic displacement of sea bed due to dip-slip faulting

In classical tsunami-generation techniques, one neglects the dynamic sea bed displacement resulting from fracturing of a seismic fault. The present study takes into account these dynamic effects. Earth's crust is assumed to be a Kelvin-Voigt material. The seismic source is assumed to be a dislocation in a viscoelastic medium. The fluid motion is described by the classical nonlinear shallow water equations (NSWE) with time-dependent bathymetry. The viscoelastodynamic equations are solved by a finite-element method and the NSWE by a finite-volume scheme. A comparison between static and dynamic tsunami-generation approaches is performed. The results of the numerical computations show differences between the two approaches and the dynamic effects could explain the complicated shapes of tsunami wave trains.Comment: 16 pages, 10 figures, Accepted to Mathematics and Computers in Simulation. Other author's papers can be downloaded at http://www.cmla.ens-cachan.fr/~dutyk

A limiter-based well-balanced discontinuous Galerkin method for shallow-water flows with wetting and drying: Triangular grids

A novel wetting and drying treatment for second-order Runge-Kutta discontinuous Galerkin (RKDG2) methods solving the non-linear shallow water equations is proposed. It is developed for general conforming two-dimensional triangular meshes and utilizes a slope limiting strategy to accurately model inundation. The method features a non-destructive limiter, which concurrently meets the requirements for linear stability and wetting and drying. It further combines existing approaches for positivity preservation and well-balancing with an innovative velocity-based limiting of the momentum. This limiting controls spurious velocities in the vicinity of the wet/dry interface. It leads to a computationally stable and robust scheme -- even on unstructured grids -- and allows for large time steps in combination with explicit time integrators. The scheme comprises only one free parameter, to which it is not sensitive in terms of stability. A number of numerical test cases, ranging from analytical tests to near-realistic laboratory benchmarks, demonstrate the performance of the method for inundation applications. In particular, super-linear convergence, mass-conservation, well-balancedness, and stability are verified

Numerical simulation of conservation laws with moving grid nodes: Application to tsunami wave modelling

In the present article we describe a few simple and efficient finite volume type schemes on moving grids in one spatial dimension combined with appropriate predictor-corrector method to achieve higher resolution. The underlying finite volume scheme is conservative and it is accurate up to the second order in space. The main novelty consists in the motion of the grid. This new dynamic aspect can be used to resolve better the areas with large solution gradients or any other special features. No interpolation procedure is employed, thus unnecessary solution smearing is avoided, and therefore, our method enjoys excellent conservation properties. The resulting grid is completely redistributed according the choice of the so-called monitor function. Several more or less universal choices of the monitor function are provided. Finally, the performance of the proposed algorithm is illustrated on several examples stemming from the simple linear advection to the simulation of complex shallow water waves. The exact well-balanced property is proven. We believe that the techniques described in our paper can be beneficially used to model tsunami wave propagation and run-up.Comment: 46 pages, 7 figures, 7 tables, 94 references. Accepted to Geosciences. Other author's papers can be downloaded at http://www.denys-dutykh.com