A review of surrogate models and their application to groundwater modeling

The spatially and temporally variable parameters and inputs to complex groundwater models typically result in long runtimes which hinder comprehensive calibration, sensitivity, and uncertainty analysis. Surrogate modeling aims to provide a simpler, and hence faster, model which emulates the specified output of a more complex model in function of its inputs and parameters. In this review paper, we summarize surrogate modeling techniques in three categories: data-driven, projection, and hierarchical-based approaches. Data-driven surrogates approximate a groundwater model through an empirical model that captures the input-output mapping of the original model. Projection-based models reduce the dimensionality of the parameter space by projecting the governing equations onto a basis of orthonormal vectors. In hierarchical or multifidelity methods the surrogate is created by simplifying the representation of the physical system, such as by ignoring certain processes, or reducing the numerical resolution. In discussing the application to groundwater modeling of these methods, we note several imbalances in the existing literature: a large body of work on data-driven approaches seemingly ignores major drawbacks to the methods; only a fraction of the literature focuses on creating surrogates to reproduce outputs of fully distributed groundwater models, despite these being ubiquitous in practice; and a number of the more advanced surrogate modeling methods are yet to be fully applied in a groundwater modeling context

Kontextsensitive Modellhierarchien für Quantifizierung der höherdimensionalen Unsicherheit

We formulate four novel context-aware algorithms based on model hierarchies aimed to enable an efficient quantification of uncertainty in complex, computationally expensive problems, such as fluid-structure interaction and plasma microinstability simulations. Our results show that our algorithms are more efficient than standard approaches and that they are able to cope with the challenges of quantifying uncertainty in higher-dimensional, complex problems.Wir formulieren vier kontextsensitive Algorithmen auf der Grundlage von Modellhierarchien um eine effiziente Quantifizierung der Unsicherheit bei komplexen, rechenintensiven Problemen zu ermöglichen, wie Fluid-Struktur-Wechselwirkungs- und Plasma-Mikroinstabilitätssimulationen. Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen, dass unsere Algorithmen effizienter als Standardansätze sind und die Herausforderungen der Quantifizierung der Unsicherheit in höherdimensionalen, komplexen Problemen bewältigen können

Sensitivity analysis and probabilistic re-entry modeling for debris using high dimensional model representation based uncertainty treatment

Well-known tools developed for satellite and debris re-entry perform break- up and trajectory simulations in a deterministic sense and do not perform any uncertainty treatment. The treatment of uncertainties associated with the re-entry of a space object requires a probabilistic approach. A Monte Carlo campaign is the intuitive approach to performing a probabilistic analysis, however, it is computationally very expensive. In this work, we use a recently developed approach based on a new derivation of the high dimensional model representation method for implementing a computationally efficient probabilistic analysis approach for re-entry. Both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties that affect aerodynamic trajectory and ground impact location are considered. The method is applicable to both controlled and uncontrolled re-entry scenarios. The resulting ground impact distributions are far from the typically used Gaussian or ellipsoid distributions

不確実環境下における航空機のコンフリクト回避のための確率的最適制御

学位の種別: 課程博士審査委員会委員 : (主査)東京大学准教授 土屋 武司, 東京大学教授 鈴木 真二, 東京大学教授 堀 浩一, 東京大学准教授 矢入 健久, 横浜国立大学教授 上野 誠也University of Tokyo(東京大学

UQ and AI: data fusion, inverse identification, and multiscale uncertainty propagation in aerospace components

A key requirement for engineering designs is that they offer good performance across a range of uncertain conditions while exhibiting an admissibly low probability of failure. In order to design components that offer good performance across a range of uncertain conditions, it is necessary to take account of the effect of the uncertainties associated with a candidate design. Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) methods are statistical methods that may be used to quantify the effect of the uncertainties inherent in a system on its performance. This thesis expands the envelope of UQ methods for the design of aerospace components, supporting the integration of UQ methods in product development by addressing four industrial challenges. Firstly, a method for propagating uncertainty through computational models in a hierachy of scales is described that is based on probabilistic equivalence and Non-Intrusive Polynomial Chaos (NIPC). This problem is relevant to the design of aerospace components as the computational models used to evaluate candidate designs are typically multiscale. This method was then extended to develop a formulation for inverse identification, where the probability distributions for the material properties of a coupon are deduced from measurements of its response. We demonstrate how probabilistic equivalence and the Maximum Entropy Principle (MEP) may be used to leverage data from simulations with scarce experimental data- with the intention of making this stage of product design less expensive and time consuming. The third contribution of this thesis is to develop two novel meta-modelling strategies to promote the wider exploration of the design space during the conceptual design phase. Design Space Exploration (DSE) in this phase is crucial as decisions made at the early, conceptual stages of an aircraft design can restrict the range of alternative designs available at later stages in the design process, despite limited quantitative knowledge of the interaction between requirements being available at this stage. A histogram interpolation algorithm is presented that allows the designer to interactively explore the design space with a model-free formulation, while a meta-model based on Knowledge Based Neural Networks (KBaNNs) is proposed in which the outputs of a high-level, inexpensive computer code are informed by the outputs of a neural network, in this way addressing the criticism of neural networks that they are purely data-driven and operate as black boxes. The final challenge addressed by this thesis is how to iteratively improve a meta-model by expanding the dataset used to train it. Given the reliance of UQ methods on meta-models this is an important challenge. This thesis proposes an adaptive learning algorithm for Support Vector Machine (SVM) metamodels, which are used to approximate an unknown function. In particular, we apply the adaptive learning algorithm to test cases in reliability analysis.Open Acces