A new formulation of compartmental epidemic modelling for arbitrary distributions of incubation and removal times

The paradigm for compartment models in epidemiology assumes exponentially distributed incubation and removal times, which is not realistic in actual populations. Commonly used variations with multiple exponentially distributed variables are more flexible, yet do not allow for arbitrary distributions. We present a new formulation, focussing on the SEIR concept that allows to include general distributions of incubation and removal times. We compare the solution to two types of agent-based model simulations, a spatially homogeneous one where infection occurs by proximity, and a model on a scale-free network with varying clustering properties, where the infection between any two agents occurs via their link if it exists. We find good agreement in both cases. Furthermore a family of asymptotic solutions of the equations is found in terms of a logistic curve, which after a non-universal time shift, fits extremely well all the microdynamical simulations. The formulation allows for a simple numerical approach; software in Julia and Python is provided.Comment: 21 pages, 11 figures. v2 matches published version: improved presentation (including title, abstract and references), results and conclusions unchange

Two-Population Dynamics in a Growing Network Model

We introduce a growing network evolution model with nodal attributes. The model describes the interactions between potentially violent V and non-violent N agents who have different affinities in establishing connections within their own population versus between the populations. The model is able to generate all stable triads observed in real social systems. In the framework of rate equations theory, we employ the mean-field approximation to derive analytical expressions of the degree distribution and the local clustering coefficient for each type of nodes. Analytical derivations agree well with numerical simulation results. The assortativity of the potentially violent network qualitatively resembles the connectivity pattern in terrorist networks that was recently reported. The assortativity of the network driven by aggression shows clearly different behavior than the assortativity of the networks with connections of non-aggressive nature in agreement with recent empirical results of an online social system.Comment: 23 pages, 6 figures; in press in Physica

Clustering and Community Detection in Directed Networks: A Survey

Networks (or graphs) appear as dominant structures in diverse domains, including sociology, biology, neuroscience and computer science. In most of the aforementioned cases graphs are directed - in the sense that there is directionality on the edges, making the semantics of the edges non symmetric. An interesting feature that real networks present is the clustering or community structure property, under which the graph topology is organized into modules commonly called communities or clusters. The essence here is that nodes of the same community are highly similar while on the contrary, nodes across communities present low similarity. Revealing the underlying community structure of directed complex networks has become a crucial and interdisciplinary topic with a plethora of applications. Therefore, naturally there is a recent wealth of research production in the area of mining directed graphs - with clustering being the primary method and tool for community detection and evaluation. The goal of this paper is to offer an in-depth review of the methods presented so far for clustering directed networks along with the relevant necessary methodological background and also related applications. The survey commences by offering a concise review of the fundamental concepts and methodological base on which graph clustering algorithms capitalize on. Then we present the relevant work along two orthogonal classifications. The first one is mostly concerned with the methodological principles of the clustering algorithms, while the second one approaches the methods from the viewpoint regarding the properties of a good cluster in a directed network. Further, we present methods and metrics for evaluating graph clustering results, demonstrate interesting application domains and provide promising future research directions.Comment: 86 pages, 17 figures. Physics Reports Journal (To Appear

Transforming Graph Representations for Statistical Relational Learning

Relational data representations have become an increasingly important topic due to the recent proliferation of network datasets (e.g., social, biological, information networks) and a corresponding increase in the application of statistical relational learning (SRL) algorithms to these domains. In this article, we examine a range of representation issues for graph-based relational data. Since the choice of relational data representation for the nodes, links, and features can dramatically affect the capabilities of SRL algorithms, we survey approaches and opportunities for relational representation transformation designed to improve the performance of these algorithms. This leads us to introduce an intuitive taxonomy for data representation transformations in relational domains that incorporates link transformation and node transformation as symmetric representation tasks. In particular, the transformation tasks for both nodes and links include (i) predicting their existence, (ii) predicting their label or type, (iii) estimating their weight or importance, and (iv) systematically constructing their relevant features. We motivate our taxonomy through detailed examples and use it to survey and compare competing approaches for each of these tasks. We also discuss general conditions for transforming links, nodes, and features. Finally, we highlight challenges that remain to be addressed

Intrinsically Dynamic Network Communities

Community finding algorithms for networks have recently been extended to dynamic data. Most of these recent methods aim at exhibiting community partitions from successive graph snapshots and thereafter connecting or smoothing these partitions using clever time-dependent features and sampling techniques. These approaches are nonetheless achieving longitudinal rather than dynamic community detection. We assume that communities are fundamentally defined by the repetition of interactions among a set of nodes over time. According to this definition, analyzing the data by considering successive snapshots induces a significant loss of information: we suggest that it blurs essentially dynamic phenomena - such as communities based on repeated inter-temporal interactions, nodes switching from a community to another across time, or the possibility that a community survives while its members are being integrally replaced over a longer time period. We propose a formalism which aims at tackling this issue in the context of time-directed datasets (such as citation networks), and present several illustrations on both empirical and synthetic dynamic networks. We eventually introduce intrinsically dynamic metrics to qualify temporal community structure and emphasize their possible role as an estimator of the quality of the community detection - taking into account the fact that various empirical contexts may call for distinct `community' definitions and detection criteria.Comment: 27 pages, 11 figure

Evolutionary game theory: Temporal and spatial effects beyond replicator dynamics

Evolutionary game dynamics is one of the most fruitful frameworks for studying evolution in different disciplines, from Biology to Economics. Within this context, the approach of choice for many researchers is the so-called replicator equation, that describes mathematically the idea that those individuals performing better have more offspring and thus their frequency in the population grows. While very many interesting results have been obtained with this equation in the three decades elapsed since it was first proposed, it is important to realize the limits of its applicability. One particularly relevant issue in this respect is that of non-mean-field effects, that may arise from temporal fluctuations or from spatial correlations, both neglected in the replicator equation. This review discusses these temporal and spatial effects focusing on the non-trivial modifications they induce when compared to the outcome of replicator dynamics. Alongside this question, the hypothesis of linearity and its relation to the choice of the rule for strategy update is also analyzed. The discussion is presented in terms of the emergence of cooperation, as one of the current key problems in Biology and in other disciplines.Comment: Review, 48 pages, 26 figure