A geometric characterization of cc-optimal designs for heteroscedastic regression

We consider the common nonlinear regression model where the variance, as well as the mean, is a parametric function of the explanatory variables. The $c$-optimal design problem is investigated in the case when the parameters of both the mean and the variance function are of interest. A geometric characterization of $c$-optimal designs in this context is presented, which generalizes the classical result of Elfving [Ann. Math. Statist. 23 (1952) 255--262] for $c$-optimal designs. As in Elfving's famous characterization, $c$-optimal designs can be described as representations of boundary points of a convex set. However, in the case where there appear parameters of interest in the variance, the structure of the Elfving set is different. Roughly speaking, the Elfving set corresponding to a heteroscedastic regression model is the convex hull of a set of ellipsoids induced by the underlying model and indexed by the design space. The $c$-optimal designs are characterized as representations of the points where the line in direction of the vector $c$ intersects the boundary of the new Elfving set. The theory is illustrated in several examples including pharmacokinetic models with random effects.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/09-AOS708 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Development of the D-Optimality-Based Coordinate-Exchange Algorithm for an Irregular Design Space and the Mixed-Integer Nonlinear Robust Parameter Design Optimization

Robust parameter design (RPD), originally conceptualized by Taguchi, is an effective statistical design method for continuous quality improvement by incorporating product quality into the design of processes. The primary goal of RPD is to identify optimal input variable level settings with minimum process bias and variation. Because of its practicality in reducing inherent uncertainties associated with system performance across key product and process dimensions, the widespread application of RPD techniques to many engineering and science fields has resulted in significant improvements in product quality and process enhancement. There is little disagreement among researchers about Taguchi\u27s basic philosophy. In response to apparent mathematical flaws surrounding his original version of RPD, researchers have closely examined alternative approaches by incorporating well-established statistical methods, particularly the response surface methodology (RSM), while accepting the main philosophy of his RPD concepts. This particular RSM-based RPD method predominantly employs the central composite design technique with the assumption that input variables are quantitative on a continuous scale. There is a large number of practical situations in which a combination of input variables is of real-valued quantitative variables on a continuous scale and qualitative variables such as integer- and binary-valued variables. Despite the practicality of such cases in real-world engineering problems, there has been little research attempt, if any, perhaps due to mathematical hurdles in terms of inconsistencies between a design space in the experimental phase and a solution space in the optimization phase. For instance, the design space associated with the central composite design, which is perhaps known as the most effective response surface design for a second-order prediction model, is typically a bounded convex feasible set involving real numbers due to its inherent real-valued axial design points; however, its solution space may consist of integer and real values. Along the lines, this dissertation proposes RPD optimization models under three different scenarios. Given integer-valued constraints, this dissertation discusses why the Box-Behnken design is preferred over the central composite design and other three-level designs, while maintaining constant or nearly constant prediction variance, called the design rotatability, associated with a second-order model. Box-Behnken design embedded mixed integer nonlinear programming models are then proposed. As a solution method, the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions are developed and the sequential quadratic integer programming technique is also used. Further, given binary-valued constraints, this dissertation investigates why neither the central composite design nor the Box-Behnken design is effective. To remedy this potential problem, several 0-1 mixed integer nonlinear programming models are proposed by laying out the foundation of a three-level factorial design with pseudo center points. For these particular models, we use standard optimization methods such as the branch-and-bound technique, the outer approximation method, and the hybrid nonlinear based branch-and-cut algorithm. Finally, there exist some special situations during the experimental phase where the situation may call for reducing the number of experimental runs or using a reduced regression model in fitting the data. Furthermore, there are special situations where the experimental design space is constrained, and therefore optimal design points should be generated. In these particular situations, traditional experimental designs may not be appropriate. D-optimal experimental designs are investigated and incorporated into nonlinear programming models, as the design region is typically irregular which may end up being a convex problem. It is believed that the research work contained in this dissertation is the initial examination in the related literature and makes a considerable contribution to an existing body of knowledge by filling research gaps

A geometric characterization of c-optimal designs for heteroscedastic regression

We consider the common nonlinear regression model where the variance as well as the mean is a parametric function of the explanatory variables. The c-optimal design problem is investigated in the case when the parameters of both the mean and the variance function are of interest. A geometric characterization of c-optimal designs in this context is presented, which generalizes the classical result of Elfving (1952) for c-optimal designs. As in Elfving's famous characterization c-optimal designs can be described as representations of boundary points of a convex set. However, in the case where there appear parameters of interest in the variance, the structure of the Elfving set is different. Roughly speaking the Elfving set corresponding to a heteroscedastic regression model is the convex hull of a set of ellipsoids induced by the underlying model and indexed by the design space. The c-optimal designs are characterized as representations of the points where the line in direction of the vector c intersects the boundary of the new Elfving set. The theory is illustrated in several examples including pharmacokinetic models with random effects. --c-optimal design,heteroscedastic regression,Elfving's theorem,pharmacokinetic models,random effects,locally optimal design,geometric characterization

Bayesian T-optimal discriminating designs

The problem of constructing Bayesian optimal discriminating designs for a class of regression models with respect to the T-optimality criterion introduced by Atkinson and Fedorov (1975a) is considered. It is demonstrated that the discretization of the integral with respect to the prior distribution leads to locally T-optimal discrimination designs can only deal with a few comparisons, but the discretization of the Bayesian prior easily yields to discrimination design problems for more than 100 competing models. A new efficient method is developed to deal with problems of this type. It combines some features of the classical exchange type algorithm with the gradient methods. Convergence is proved and it is demonstrated that the new method can find Bayesian optimal discriminating designs in situations where all currently available procedures fail.Comment: 25 pages, 3 figure

Optimal experimental design for predator–prey functional response experiments

Functional response models are important in understanding predator–prey interactions. The development of functional response methodology has progressed from mechanistic models to more statistically motivated models that can account for variance and the over-dispersion commonly seen in the datasets collected from functional response experiments. However, little information seems to be available for those wishing to prepare optimal parameter estimation designs for functional response experiments. It is worth noting that optimally designed experiments may require smaller sample sizes to achieve the same statistical outcomes as non-optimally designed experiments. In this paper, we develop a model-based approach to optimal experimental design for functional response experiments in the presence of parameter uncertainty (also known as a robust optimal design approach). Further, we develop and compare new utility functions which better focus on the statistical efficiency of the designs; these utilities are generally applicable for robust optimal design in other applications (not just in functional response). The methods are illustrated using a beta-binomial functional response model for two published datasets: an experiment involving the freshwater predator Notonecta glauca (an aquatic insect) preying on Asellus aquaticus (a small crustacean), and another experiment involving a ladybird beetle (Propylea quatuordecimpunctata L.) preying on the black bean aphid (Aphis fabae Scopoli). As a by-product, we also derive necessary quantities to perform optimal design for beta-binomial regression models, which may be useful in other applications