Potential applications of simulation modelling techniques in healthcare: lessons learned from aerospace and military

The Aerospace and Military areas are to do with complex missions and situations. Modelling and Simulation (M&S) has been applied in many areas of defence ranging from space sciences, satellite engineering to multi-warfare (air warfare, undersea warfare), air & missile defence, acquisition, tactical military trainings & exercises, national security analysis and strategic decision making & planning, etc. The application of simulation modelling techniques in healthcare would improve the provision of healthcare services; however, their application has been much relatively feeble in the healthcare sector as compared to the defence sector. This paper presents results from a systematic literature survey on applications of modelling simulation techniques in the Aerospace & Military. The knowledge gained or lessons learned from the survey were finally used to analyze the potential applications of the simulation modelling techniques to the healthcare sector. Results show that in the defence sector, Distributed Simulation has now become a widely adopted technique. However, System Dynamics (SD) and Discrete Event Simulation (DSE) have also gained relative attention. From this survey it becomes clear that various simulation modelling techniques are useful for specific purposes and have potential applications in the healthcare sector

INCORPORATING RADIO FREQUENCY MESH NETWORKS TO LINK LIVE, VIRTUAL, CONSTRUCTIVE TRAINING

Given the importance of modeling and simulation (M&S) for creating realistic training environments and employing or developing tactical systems for warfighters, the Department of Defense is turning toward live, virtual, constructive (LVC) simulations as a means to prepare and equip our military for the next war. M&S offers a unique competency for modeling emergent enemy behaviors in constructive simulations on virtual battlefields across the globe. Transferring these dynamic tactical actions to live command and control (C2) systems used during training can create decision-making opportunities for distributed units to react to and act upon. The research conducted in this thesis assessed, developed, and implemented an appropriate LVC environment that can be used in training for tactical convoy operations in the Marine Corps. We developed a robust mesh network connected to a personal computer running a constructive simulation to create dynamic tracks on handheld, Android-based C2 systems. Using low-bandwidth radios to create the network, we were able to create a rich, tactically realistic training environment while minimally increasing the combat load of our Marines. The system we created has the same functionality of the blue force tracker (BFT). Because the BFT is no longer funded, we recommend the LVC solution we created for this thesis as a potential replacement with embedded training capabilities.Captain, United States Marine CorpsApproved for public release. distribution is unlimite

MODELLING & SIMULATION HYBRID WARFARE Researches, Models and Tools for Hybrid Warfare and Population Simulation

The Hybrid Warfare phenomena, which is the subject of the current research, has been framed by the work of Professor Agostino Bruzzone (University of Genoa) and Professor Erdal Cayirci (University of Stavanger), that in June 2016 created in order to inquiry the subject a dedicated Exploratory Team, which was endorsed by NATO Modelling & Simulation Group (a panel of the NATO Science & Technology organization) and established with the participation as well of the author. The author brought his personal contribution within the ET43 by introducing meaningful insights coming from the lecture of \u201cFight by the minutes: Time and the Art of War (1994)\u201d, written by Lieutenant Colonel US Army (Rtd.) Robert Leonhard; in such work, Leonhard extensively developed the concept that \u201cTime\u201d, rather than geometry of the battlefield and/or firepower, is the critical factor to tackle in military operations and by extension in Hybrid Warfare. The critical reflection about the time - both in its quantitative and qualitative dimension - in a hybrid confrontation it is addressed and studied inside SIMCJOH, a software built around challenges that imposes literally to \u201cFight by the minutes\u201d, echoing the core concept expressed in the eponymous work. Hybrid Warfare \u2013 which, by definition and purpose, aims to keep the military commitment of both aggressor and defender at the lowest - can gain enormous profit by employing a wide variety of non-military tools, turning them into a weapon, as in the case of the phenomena of \u201cweaponization of mass migrations\u201d, as it is examined in the \u201cDies Irae\u201d simulation architecture. Currently, since migration it is a very sensitive and divisive issue among the public opinions of many European countries, cynically leveraging on a humanitarian emergency caused by an exogenous, inducted migration, could result in a high level of political and social destabilization, which indeed favours the concurrent actions carried on by other hybrid tools. Other kind of disruption however, are already available in the arsenal of Hybrid Warfare, such cyber threats, information campaigns lead by troll factories for the diffusion of fake/altered news, etc. From this perspective the author examines how the TREX (Threat network simulation for REactive eXperience) simulator is able to offer insights about a hybrid scenario characterized by an intense level of social disruption, brought by cyber-attacks and systemic faking of news. Furthermore, the rising discipline of \u201cStrategic Engineering\u201d, as envisaged by Professor Agostino Bruzzone, when matched with the operational requirements to fulfil in order to counter Hybrid Threats, it brings another innovative, as much as powerful tool, into the professional luggage of the military and the civilian employed in Defence and Homeland security sectors. Hybrid is not the New War. What is new is brought by globalization paired with the transition to the information age and rising geopolitical tensions, which have put new emphasis on hybrid hostilities that manifest themselves in a contemporary way. Hybrid Warfare is a deliberate choice of an aggressor. While militarily weak nations can resort to it in order to re-balance the odds, instead military strong nations appreciate its inherent effectiveness coupled with the denial of direct responsibility, thus circumventing the rules of the International Community (IC). In order to be successful, Hybrid Warfare should consist of a highly coordinated, sapient mix of diverse and dynamic combination of regular forces, irregular forces (even criminal elements), cyber disruption etc. all in order to achieve effects across the entire DIMEFIL/PMESII_PT spectrum. However, the owner of the strategy, i.e. the aggressor, by keeping the threshold of impunity as high as possible and decreasing the willingness of the defender, can maintain his Hybrid Warfare at a diplomatically feasible level; so the model of the capacity, willingness and threshold, as proposed by Cayirci, Bruzzone and Gunneriusson (2016), remains critical to comprehend Hybrid Warfare. Its dynamicity is able to capture the evanescent, blurring line between Hybrid Warfare and Conventional Warfare. In such contest time is the critical factor: this because it is hard to foreseen for the aggressor how long he can keep up with such strategy without risking either the retaliation from the International Community or the depletion of resources across its own DIMEFIL/PMESII_PT spectrum. Similar discourse affects the defender: if he isn\u2019t able to cope with Hybrid Threats (i.e. taking no action), time works against him; if he is, he can start to develop counter narrative and address physical countermeasures. However, this can lead, in the medium long period, to an unforeseen (both for the attacker and the defender) escalation into a large, conventional, armed conflict. The performance of operations that required more than kinetic effects drove the development of DIMEFIL/PMESII_PT models and in turn this drive the development of Human Social Culture Behavior Modelling (HCSB), which should stand at the core of the Hybrid Warfare modelling and simulation efforts. Multi Layers models are fundamental to evaluate Strategies and Support Decisions: currently there are favourable conditions to implement models of Hybrid Warfare, such as Dies Irae, SIMCJOH and TREX, in order to further develop tools and war-games for studying new tactics, execute collective training and to support decisions making and analysis planning. The proposed approach is based on the idea to create a mosaic made by HLA interoperable simulators able to be combined as tiles to cover an extensive part of the Hybrid Warfare, giving the users an interactive and intuitive environment based on the \u201cModelling interoperable Simulation and Serious Game\u201d (MS2G) approach. From this point of view, the impressive capabilities achieved by IA-CGF in human behavior modeling to support population simulation as well as their native HLA structure, suggests to adopt them as core engine in this application field. However, it necessary to highlight that, when modelling DIMEFIL/PMESII_PT domains, the researcher has to be aware of the bias introduced by the fact that especially Political and Social \u201cscience\u201d are accompanied and built around value judgement. From this perspective, the models proposed by Cayirci, Bruzzone, Guinnarson (2016) and by Balaban & Mileniczek (2018) are indeed a courageous tentative to import, into the domain of particularly poorly understood phenomena (social, politics, and to a lesser degree economics - Hartley, 2016), the mathematical and statistical instruments and the methodologies employed by the pure, hard sciences. Nevertheless, just using the instruments and the methodology of the hard sciences it is not enough to obtain the objectivity, and is such aspect the representations of Hybrid Warfare mechanics could meet their limit: this is posed by the fact that they use, as input for the equations that represents Hybrid Warfare, not physical data observed during a scientific experiment, but rather observation of the reality that assumes implicitly and explicitly a value judgment, which could lead to a biased output. Such value judgement it is subjective, and not objective like the mathematical and physical sciences; when this is not well understood and managed by the academic and the researcher, it can introduce distortions - which are unacceptable for the purpose of the Science - which could be used as well to enforce a narrative mainstream that contains a so called \u201ctruth\u201d, which lies inside the boundary of politics rather than Science. Those observations around subjectivity of social sciences vs objectivity of pure sciences, being nothing new, suggest however the need to examine the problem under a new perspective, less philosophical and more leaned toward the practical application. The suggestion that the author want make here is that the Verification and Validation process, in particular the methodology used by Professor Bruzzone in doing V&V for SIMCJOH (2016) and the one described in the Modelling & Simulation User Risk Methodology (MURM) developed by Pandolfini, Youngblood et all (2018), could be applied to evaluate if there is a bias and the extent of the it, or at least making clear the value judgment adopted in developing the DIMEFIL/PMESII_PT models. Such V&V research is however outside the scope of the present work, even though it is an offspring of it, and for such reason the author would like to make further inquiries on this particular subject in the future. Then, the theoretical discourse around Hybrid Warfare has been completed addressing the need to establish a new discipline, Strategic Engineering, very much necessary because of the current a political and economic environment which allocates diminishing resources to Defense and Homeland Security (at least in Europe). However, Strategic Engineering can successfully address its challenges when coupled with the understanding and the management of the fourth dimension of military and hybrid operations, Time. For the reasons above, and as elaborated by Leonhard and extensively discussed in the present work, addressing the concern posed by Time dimension is necessary for the success of any military or Hybrid confrontation. The SIMCJOH project, examined under the above perspective, proved that the simulator has the ability to address the fourth dimension of military and non-military confrontation. In operations, Time is the most critical factor during execution, and this was successfully transferred inside the simulator; as such, SIMCJOH can be viewed as a training tool and as well a dynamic generator of events for the MEL/MIL execution during any exercise. In conclusion, SIMCJOH Project successfully faces new challenging aspects, allowed to study and develop new simulation models in order to support decision makers, Commanders and their Staff. Finally, the question posed by Leonhard in terms of recognition of the importance of time management of military operations - nowadays Hybrid Conflict - has not been answered yet; however, the author believes that Modelling and Simulation tools and techniques can represent the safe \u201ctank\u201d where innovative and advanced scientific solutions can be tested, exploiting the advantage of doing it in a synthetic environment

Application of Web Services to a Simulation Framework

The Joint Semi-Automated Forces (JSAF) simulator is an excellent tool for military training and a great testbed for new SAF behaviors. However, it has the drawback that behaviors must be ported into its own Finite State Machine (FSM) language. Web Services is a growing technology that seamlessly connects service providers to service consumers. This work attempts to merge these two technologies by modeling SAF behaviors as web services. The JSAF simulator is then modeled as a web service consumer. This approach allows new Semi-Automated Forces (SAF) behaviors to be developed independently of the simulator, which provides the developer with greater flexibility when choosing a programming language, development environment, and development platform. In addition to new SAF behaviors, this approach also supports any external component that can be modeled as a web service. Furthermore, these services are often run over a network, which distributes the computational load across several computers. Finally, hosting copies of a single service on several machines, a concept similar to file-sharing mirrors, offers an environment for load-balancing. This means if several entities are running the same behavior, a single server does not perform the computation for every entity. Instead, each entity is assigned to a specific server, increasing the quality of service seen by the system. A Web Services framework linking JSAF with several services is designed and implemented. Suppression of Enemy Air Defense (SEAD) behaviors written in MATLAB and a behavior recognition system are integrated with JSAF. These behaviors and the recognition tool were developed by other researchers, independent of this work. Results show that offloading computation to other machines is beneficial, especially when the simulation system is under heavy load. Preliminary results also indicate that load-balancing performs much better than using a single server

A Visual Language for Composable Simulation Scenarios

Modeling and Simulation plays an important role in how the Air Force trains and fights, Scenarios are used in simulation to give users the ability to specify entities and behaviors that should be simulated by a model: however, building and understanding scenarios can be a difficult and time-consuming process, furthermore, as composable simulations become more prominent, the need for a common descriptor for simulation scenarios has become evident. In order to reduce the complexity of creating and understanding simulation scenarios, a visual language was created, The research on visual languages presented in this thesis examines methods of visually specifying the high-level behavior of entities in scenarios and how to represent the hierarchy of the entities in scenarios. Through a study of current behavior specification techniques and the properties of mission-level simulation scenarios, Simulation Behavior Specification Diagrams (SBSD) were developed to represent the behavior of entities in scenarios, Additionally, the information visualization technique of treemaps was adapted to represent the hierarchy of entities in scenarios, After completing case studies on scenarios for the OneSAF simulation model, SBSDs and the application of treemaps to scenarios was considered successful, SBSD diagrams accurately represented the behavior of entities in the simulation scenarios and through software can be converted into code for use by simulation models, The treemap displayed the hierarchy of the entities along with information about the relative size of the entities when applied to simulation scenarios

Research opportunities in joint interoperability testing

The Department of Defense requires that all command, control, communications and computers intelligence (C4I) systems and automated information systems-(AIS) be interoperable between the services. The Joint Interoperability Test Command (JITC) is responsible for testing and certifying the joint interoperability of these systems. The design of joint interoperability tests and the analysis of data that they produce offer many opportunities for NPS faculty and students to collaborate with JITC on research projects of mutual interest. This paper outlines a spectrum of potential research opportunities, encompassing probability and statistics, modeling and simulation, computer science, information technology, electrical engineering, human factors, and specialized subject matter related to intelligence, communications, and missile defense systems

Interoperable Simulation and Serious Games for creating an Open Cyber Range

The paper proposes an open architecture to support the creation of a synthetic environment devoted to simulate complex scenarios related to the protection of cyber-physical systems. The proposed approach is based on applying the combination of interoperable simulation and serious games to develop a framework where different models, as well as real equipment, could interoperate based on High Level Architecture standard. By this approach, it becomes possible to create a federation reproducing a scenario including multiple physical and cyber layers interacting dynamically and reproducing complex situations. The authors propose an example of specific case study conceptually developed to apply this approach

MODELLING VIRTUAL ENVIRONMENT FOR ADVANCED NAVAL SIMULATION

This thesis proposes a new virtual simulation environment designed as element of an interoperable federation of simulator to support the investigation of complex scenarios over the Extended Maritime Framework (EMF). Extended Maritime Framework is six spaces environment (Underwater, Water surface, Ground, Air, Space, and Cyberspace) where parties involved in Joint Naval Operations act. The amount of unmanned vehicles involved in the simulation arise the importance of the Communication modelling, thus the relevance of Cyberspace. The research is applied to complex cases (one applied to deep waters and one to coast and littoral protection) as examples to validate this approach; these cases involve different kind of traditional assets (e.g. satellites, helicopters, ships, submarines, underwater sensor infrastructure, etc.) interact dynamically and collaborate with new autonomous systems (i.e. AUV, Gliders, USV and UAV). The use of virtual simulation is devoted to support validation of new concepts and investigation of collaborative engineering solutions by providing a virtual representation of the current situation; this approach support the creation of dynamic interoperable immersive framework that could support training for Man in the Loop, education and tactical decision introducing the Man on the Loop concepts. The research and development of the Autonomous Underwater Vehicles requires continuous testing so a time effective approach can result a very useful tool. In this context the simulation can be useful to better understand the behaviour of Unmanned Vehicles and to avoid useless experimentations and their costs finding problems before doing them. This research project proposes the creation of a virtual environment with the aim to see and understand a Joint Naval Scenario. The study will be focusing especially on the integration of Autonomous Systems with traditional assets; the proposed simulation deals especially with collaborative operation involving different types of Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUV), Unmanned Surface Vehicles (USV) and UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle). The author develops an interoperable virtual simulation devoted to present the overall situation for supervision considering also the sensor capabilities, communications and mission effectiveness that results dependent of the different asset interaction over a complex heterogeneous network. The aim of this research is to develop a flexible virtual simulation solution as crucial element of an HLA federation able to address the complexity of Extended Maritime Framework (EMF). Indeed this new generation of marine interoperable simulation is a strategic advantage for investigating the problems related to the operational use of autonomous systems and to finding new ways to use them respect to different scenarios. The research deal with the creation of two scenarios, one related to military operations and another one on coastal and littoral protection where the virtual simulation propose the overall situation and allows to navigate into the virtual world considering the complex physics affecting movement, perception, interaction and communication. By this approach, it becomes evident the capability to identify, by experimental analysis within the virtual world, the new solutions in terms of engineering and technological configuration of the different systems and vehicles as well as new operational models and tactics to address the specific mission environment. The case of study is a maritime scenario with a representation of heterogeneous network frameworks that involves multiple vehicles both naval and aerial including AUVs, USVs, gliders, helicopter, ships, submarines, satellite, buoys and sensors. For the sake of clarity aerial communications will be represented divided from underwater ones. A connection point for the latter will be set on the keel line of surface vessels representing communication happening via acoustic modem. To represent limits in underwater communications, underwater signals have been considerably slowed down in order to have a more realistic comparison with aerial ones. A maximum communication distance is set, beyond which no communication can take place. To ensure interoperability the HLA Standard (IEEE 1516 evolved) is adopted to federate other simulators so to allow its extensibility for other case studies. Two different scenarios are modelled in 3D visualization: Open Water and Port Protection. The first one aims to simulate interactions between traditional assets in Extended Maritime Framework (EMF) such as satellite, navy ships, submarines, NATO Research Vessels (NRVs), helicopters, with new generation unmanned assets as AUV, Gliders, UAV, USV and the mutual advantage the subjects involved in the scenario can have; in other word, the increase in persistence, interoperability and efficacy. The second scenario models the behaviour of unmanned assets, an AUV and an USV, patrolling a harbour to find possible threats. This aims to develop an algorithm to lead patrolling path toward an optimum, guaranteeing a high probability of success in the safest way reducing human involvement in the scenario. End users of the simulation face a graphical 3D representation of the scenario where assets would be represented. He can moves in the scenario through a Free Camera in Graphic User Interface (GUI) configured to entitle users to move around the scene and observe the 3D sea scenario. In this way, players are able to move freely in the synthetic environment in order to choose the best perspective of the scene. The work is intended to provide a valid tool to evaluate the defencelessness of on-shore and offshore critical infrastructures that could includes the use of new technologies to take care of security best and preserve themselves against disasters both on economical and environmental ones

Issues in Modeling Military Space

Fighter Pilots students undertake an intense 120-day training program. New classes of students enter the training program at regular interval. Students endured rigorous academic, simulator, and aircraft training throughout the program. Squadron schedulers ensure the multiple classes and students are scheduled for the activities. Simulator and aircraft training are scheduled individual for each student. Academic training are taught to the class. Aircraft utilization must also be considered. Aircraft Sortie training are also constrained by daylight hours. Additionally, students are limited to a maximum of three training events in a given day. Squadron schedulers must balance these requirements to ensure students meet their training requirements and successfully graduate. The dynamic training environment requires advanced robust schedules with flexibility to accommodate changes. A Visual Interactive Modeling approach is used to generate schedules. Current schedules are being generated manually with an Excel spreadsheet. Taking advantage of Excel\u27s Visual Basic Programming language, the Excel tool is modified in several ways. Scheduling Dispatch rules are implemented to automatically generate feasible schedules. Graphical User Interfaces are used to create a user-friendly environment. Schedulers guide the schedule building process to produce a robust schedule. An attrition environment is created to simulate attrition probabilities of aircraft sortie training due to operations, maintenance, weather, and other cancellations. Analysis of dispatch rules are analyzed

Swarming Reconnaissance Using Unmanned Aerial Vehicles in a Parallel Discrete Event Simulation

Current military affairs indicate that future military warfare requires safer, more accurate, and more fault-tolerant weapons systems. Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) are one answer to this military requirement. Technology in the UAV arena is moving toward smaller and more capable systems and is becoming available at a fraction of the cost. Exploiting the advances in these miniaturized flying vehicles is the aim of this research. How are the UAVs employed for the future military? The concept of operations for a micro-UAV system is adopted from nature from the appearance of flocking birds, movement of a school of fish, and swarming bees among others. All of these natural phenomena have a common thread: a global action resulting from many small individual actions. This emergent behavior is the aggregate result of many simple interactions occurring within the flock, school, or swarm. In a similar manner, a more robust weapon system uses emergent behavior resulting in no weakest link because the system itself is made up of simple interactions by hundreds or thousands of homogeneous UAVs. The global system in this research is referred to as a swarm. Losing one or a few individual unmanned vehicles would not dramatically impact the swarms ability to complete the mission or cause harm to any human operator. Swarming reconnaissance is the emergent behavior of swarms to perform a reconnaissance operation. An in-depth look at the design of a reconnaissance swarming mission is studied. A taxonomy of passive reconnaissance applications is developed to address feasibility. Evaluation of algorithms for swarm movement, communication, sensor input/analysis, targeting, and network topology result in priorities of each model\u27s desired features. After a thorough selection process of available implementations, a subset of those models are integrated and built upon resulting in a simulation that explores the innovations of swarming UAVs