The Future Prospect of PV and CSP Solar Technologies: An Expert Elicitation Survey

In this paper we present and discuss the results of an expert elicitation survey on solar technologies. Sixteen leading European experts from the academic world, the private sector and international institutions took part in this expert elicitation survey on Photovoltaic (PV) and Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) technologies. The survey collected probabilistic information on (1) how Research, Development and Demonstration (RD&D) investments will impact the future costs of solar technologies and (2) the potential for solar technology deployment both in OECD and non-OECD countries. Understanding the technological progress and the potential of solar PV and CPS technologies is crucial to draft appropriate energy policies. The results presented in this paper are thus relevant for the policy making process and can be used as better input data in integrated assessment and energy models.Expert Elicitation, Research, Development and Demonstration, Solar Technologies

Ambiguous Aggregation of Expert Opinions: The Case of Optimal R&D Investment

How should a decision-maker allocate R&D funds when a group of experts provides divergent estimates on a technology's potential effectiveness? To address this question, we propose a simple decision-theoretic framework that takes into account ambiguity over the aggregation of expert opinion and a decision-maker's attitude towards it. In line with the paper's focus on R&D investment, decision variables in our model may affect experts' subjective probability distributions of the future potential of a technology. Using results from convex optimization, we are able to establish a number of analytical results including a closed-form expression of our model's value function, as well as a thorough investigation of its differentiability properties. We apply our framework to original data from a recent expert elicitation survey on solar technology. The analysis suggests that more aggressive investment in solar technology R&D is likely to yield significant dividends even, or rather especially, after taking ambiguous aggregation into account.Aggregation, Ambiguity, R&D, Expert Opinions, Convex/Conic Optimization

A critical rationalist approach to organizational learning: testing the theories held by managers

The common wisdom is that Popper's critical rationalism, a method aimed at knowledge validation through falsification of theories, is inadequate for managers in organizations. This study falsifies this argument in three phases: first, it specifies the obstructers that prevent the method from being employed; second, the critical rationalist method is adapted for strategic management purposes; last, the method and the hypotheses are tested via action research. Conclusions are that once the obstructers are omitted the method is applicable and effective

Integrating multicriteria decision analysis and scenario planning : review and extension

Scenario planning and multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) are two key management science tools used in strategic planning. In this paper, we explore the integration of these two approaches in a coherent manner, recognizing that each adds value to the implementation of the other. Various approaches that have been adopted for such integration are reviewed, with a primary focus on the process of constructing preferences both within and between scenarios. Biases that may be introduced by inappropriate assumptions during such processes are identified, and used to motivate a framework for integrating MCDA and scenario thinking, based on applying MCDA concepts across a range of "metacriteria" (combinations of scenarios and primary criteria). Within this framework, preferences according to each primary criterion can be expressed in the context of different scenarios. The paper concludes with a hypothetical but non-trivial example of agricultural policy planning in a developing country

Towards a scope management of non-functional requirements in requirements engineering

Getting business stakeholders’ goals formulated clearly and project scope defined realistically increases the chance of success for any application development process. As a consequence, stakeholders at early project stages acquire as much as possible knowledge about the requirements, their risk estimates and their prioritization. Current industrial practice suggests that in most software projects this scope assessment is performed on the user’s functional requirements (FRs), while the non-functional requirements (NFRs) remain, by and large, ignored. However, the increasing software complexity and competition in the software industry has highlighted the need to consider NFRs as an integral part of software modeling and development. This paper contributes towards harmonizing the need to build the functional behavior of a system with the need to model the associated NFRs while maintaining a scope management for NFRs. The paper presents a systematic and precisely defined model towards an early integration of NFRs within the requirements engineering (RE). Early experiences with the model indicate its ability to facilitate the process of acquiring the knowledge on the priority and risk of NFRs

Requirements for a Nutrition Education Demonstrator

[Context and Motivation] Development of innovative ICT-based applications is a complex process involving collaboration of all relevant disciplines. This complexity arises due to differences in terminology, knowledge and often also the ways of working between developers in the disciplines involved. [Question/problem] Advances in each discipline bring a rich design environment of theories, models, methods and techniques. Making a selection from these makes the development of distributed applications very challenging, often requiring a holistic approach to address the needs of the disciplines involved. This paper describes early stage requirements acquisition of a mobile nutrition education demonstrator which supports overweight persons in adopting healthier dietary behaviour. [Principal idea/results] We present a novel way to combine and use known requirements acquisition methods involving a two stage user needs analysis based on scenarios which apply a theory-based model of behavioural change and are onstructed in two phases. The first phase scenarios specify an indicative description reflecting the use of the transtheoretical model of behavioural change. In the second phase, a handshake protocol adds elements of optative system-oriented descriptions to the scenarios such that the intended system can support the indicative description. [Contribution] The holistic and phased approach separates design concerns to which each of the disciplines contributes with their own expertise and domain principles. It preserves the applied domain principles in the design and it bridges gaps in terminology, knowledge and ways of working