An approximate dynamic programming approach to food security of communities following hazards

Food security can be threatened by extreme natural hazard events for households of all social classes within a community. To address food security issues following a natural disaster, the recovery of several elements of the built environment within a community, including its building portfolio, must be considered. Building portfolio restoration is one of the most challenging elements of recovery owing to the complexity and dimensionality of the problem. This study introduces a stochastic scheduling algorithm for the identification of optimal building portfolio recovery strategies. The proposed approach provides a computationally tractable formulation to manage multi-state, large-scale infrastructure systems. A testbed community modeled after Gilroy, California, is used to illustrate how the proposed approach can be implemented efficiently and accurately to find the near-optimal decisions related to building recovery following a severe earthquake.Comment: As opposed to the preemptive scheduling problem, which was addressed in multiple works by us, we deal with a non-preemptive stochastic scheduling problem in this work. Submitted to 13th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering, ICASP13 Seoul, South Korea, May 26-30, 201

Solving Markov decision processes for network-level post-hazard recovery via simulation optimization and rollout

Computation of optimal recovery decisions for community resilience assurance post-hazard is a combinatorial decision-making problem under uncertainty. It involves solving a large-scale optimization problem, which is significantly aggravated by the introduction of uncertainty. In this paper, we draw upon established tools from multiple research communities to provide an effective solution to this challenging problem. We provide a stochastic model of damage to the water network (WN) within a testbed community following a severe earthquake and compute near-optimal recovery actions for restoration of the water network. We formulate this stochastic decision-making problem as a Markov Decision Process (MDP), and solve it using a popular class of heuristic algorithms known as rollout. A simulation-based representation of MDPs is utilized in conjunction with rollout and the Optimal Computing Budget Allocation (OCBA) algorithm to address the resulting stochastic simulation optimization problem. Our method employs non-myopic planning with efficient use of simulation budget. We show, through simulation results, that rollout fused with OCBA performs competitively with respect to rollout with total equal allocation (TEA) at a meagre simulation budget of 5-10% of rollout with TEA, which is a crucial step towards addressing large-scale community recovery problems following natural disasters.Comment: Submitted to Simulation Optimization for Cyber Physical Energy Systems (Special Session) in 14th IEEE International Conference on Automation Science and Engineerin

Strategies for Prioritizing Needs for Accelerated Construction after Hazard Events

There is a need for rapid and responsive infrastructure repair and construction after natural disaster events such as hurricanes, wildfires, and tornadoes. These natural disasters often shut down basic infrastructure systems, as experienced recently in several Region 6 states as well as in other states around the country. Accelerated construction practices are often used in these situations to speed up the traditional, and often slow, project delivery process. However, after a natural disaster, several and different types of transportation infrastructure components are in need of inspection, rehabilitation or reconstruction, and transportation agencies are challenged with the task of prioritizing these accelerated projects. This study conducted an extensive literature review of current accelerated methods, infrastructure prioritization practices, and institutional barriers. Interviews with professionals from the transportation industry, including both private and public services, were conducted. Significant input from the railroad industry was used to compare private and public transportation systems responses after disasters. The results of this survey were used to quantify the importance of the accelerate methods and prioritization criteria, and which are the barriers to implement a prioritization model. Lastly, a decision support tool for prioritizing needs for accelerated construction after disaster events, specifically hurricanes and flooding, which commonly affect Region 6, was developed using the data collected

Optimizing resilience decision-support for natural gas networks under uncertainty

2019 Summer.Includes bibliographical references.Community resilience in the aftermath of a hazard requires the functionality of complex, interdependent infrastructure systems become operational in a timely manner to support social and economic institutions. In the context of risk management and community resilience, critical decisions should be made not only in the aftermath of a disaster in order to immediately respond to the destructive event and properly repair the damage, but preventive decisions should to be made in order to mitigate the adverse impacts of hazards prior to their occurrence. This involves significant uncertainty about the basic notion of the hazard itself, and usually involves mitigation strategies such as strengthening components or preparing required resources for post-event repairs. In essence, instances of risk management problems that encourage a framework for coupled decisions before and after events include modeling how to allocate resources before the disruptive event so as to maximize the efficiency for their distribution to repair in the aftermath of the event, and how to determine which network components require preventive investments in order to enhance their performance in case of an event. In this dissertation, a methodology is presented for optimal decision making for resilience assessment, seismic risk mitigation, and recovery of natural gas networks, taking into account their interdependency with some of the other systems within the community. In this regard, the natural gas and electric power networks of a virtual community were modeled with enough detail such that it enables assessment of natural gas network supply at the community level. The effect of the industrial makeup of a community on its natural gas recovery following an earthquake, as well as the effect of replacing conventional steel pipes with ductile HDPE pipelines as an effective mitigation strategy against seismic hazard are investigated. In addition, a multi objective optimization framework that integrates probabilistic seismic risk assessment of coupled infrastructure systems and evolutionary algorithms is proposed in order to determine cost-optimal decisions before and after a seismic event, with the objective of making the natural gas network recover more rapidly, and thus the community more resilient. Including bi-directional interdependencies between the natural gas and electric power network, strategic decisions are pursued regarding which distribution pipelines in the gas network should be retrofitted under budget constraints, with the objectives to minimizing the number of people without natural gas in the residential sector and business losses due to the lack of natural gas in non-residential sectors. Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) is used in order to propagate uncertainties and Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) is adopted in order to capture uncertainties in the seismic hazard with an approach to preserve spatial correlation. A non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II) approach is utilized to solve the multi-objective optimization problem under study. The results prove the potential of the developed methodology to provide risk-informed decision support, while being able to deal with large-scale, interdependent complex infrastructure considering probabilistic seismic hazard scenarios

OPTIMIZATION MODELS AND METHODOLOGIES TO SUPPORT EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS AND POST-DISASTER RESPONSE

This dissertation addresses three important optimization problems arising during the phases of pre-disaster emergency preparedness and post-disaster response in time-dependent, stochastic and dynamic environments. The first problem studied is the building evacuation problem with shared information (BEPSI), which seeks a set of evacuation routes and the assignment of evacuees to these routes with the minimum total evacuation time. The BEPSI incorporates the constraints of shared information in providing on-line instructions to evacuees and ensures that evacuees departing from an intermediate or source location at a mutual point in time receive common instructions. A mixed-integer linear program is formulated for the BEPSI and an exact technique based on Benders decomposition is proposed for its solution. Numerical experiments conducted on a mid-sized real-world example demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm. The second problem addressed is the network resilience problem (NRP), involving an indicator of network resilience proposed to quantify the ability of a network to recover from randomly arising disruptions resulting from a disaster event. A stochastic, mixed integer program is proposed for quantifying network resilience and identifying the optimal post-event course of action to take. A solution technique based on concepts of Benders decomposition, column generation and Monte Carlo simulation is proposed. Experiments were conducted to illustrate the resilience concept and procedure for its measurement, and to assess the role of network topology in its magnitude. The last problem addressed is the urban search and rescue team deployment problem (USAR-TDP). The USAR-TDP seeks an optimal deployment of USAR teams to disaster sites, including the order of site visits, with the ultimate goal of maximizing the expected number of saved lives over the search and rescue period. A multistage stochastic program is proposed to capture problem uncertainty and dynamics. The solution technique involves the solution of a sequence of interrelated two-stage stochastic programs with recourse. A column generation-based technique is proposed for the solution of each problem instance arising as the start of each decision epoch over a time horizon. Numerical experiments conducted on an example of the 2010 Haiti earthquake are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach

A Decision-Framework for Building Portfolios Towards Enhanced Resilience and Sustainability of Communities Under Natural Hazards

In recent years, communities in the U.S. and other countries have experienced several catastrophic natural hazards (e.g. Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and the Christchurch Earthquake in 2011). The unproportioned social, political impact and economic loss from these events and the fact that such events will continue to occur have highlighted the vulnerability of typical communities, and more importantly, emphasized the significance of considering the performance of communities as a whole under extreme natural and man-made events over a long-time horizon. The physical built environment and the decision-making on them plays a critical role in determining the extent to which the community will perform immediately after the hazard events, the recovery trajectory afterward as well as the long-term financial health, environmental protection, and prosperity. Some communities in the U.S. began or about to implement large-scale, community-level engineering strategies. However, such strategies generally suffer from lacking quantitative support. While some studies have been done to explore the large-scale decision-making, they might be not sufficient to address the problem systematically. A uniform decision support framework for various strategies across different stages of infrastructure systems must be developed. This dissertation focuses on developing a risk-informed decision-making framework for building portfolios under the threat of natural hazards, with particular emphasis on exploring optimal strategies supporting the engineering enhancement measures in different stages of building portfolios over their lifetime. In this study, three categories of large-scale engineering strategies are discussed in depth: new construction, pre-hazard retrofitting, and post-hazard reconstruction that communities may adopt to enhance the performance of the residential building cluster, and thus the whole community in future hazards. Decision-making is explored under seismic and tornado hazards as examples and reveals that communities can and must make engineering decisions from the perspective of the resilience performance of communities and simultaneously consider the sustainability requirements (by employing the economic metric of life-cycle cost as an example). The study demonstrates that the resilience and sustainability goals could be achieved at the same time without compromising one or the other. The proposed decision-making framework could assist community leaders in designing mandatory/voluntary policies or financial incentives to let owners invest in an organized manner and collectively enable the community to achieve its pre-defined resilience and sustainability goals in the long-term