Climate change and disaster impact reduction

Based on papers presented at the 'UK - South Asia Young Scientists and Practitioners Seminar on Climate Change and Disaster Impact Reduction' held at Kathmandu, Nepal on 5-6 June, 2008

Earth Observation Science and Applications for Risk Reduction and Enhanced Resilience in Hindu Kush Himalaya Region

This open access book is a consolidation of lessons learnt and experiences gathered from our efforts to utilise Earth observation (EO) science and applications to address environmental challenges in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region. It includes a complete package of knowledge on service life cycles including multi-disciplinary topics and practically tested applications for the HKH. It comprises 19 chapters drawing from a decade’s worth of experience gleaned over the course of our implementation of SERVIR-HKH – a joint initiative of NASA, USAID, and ICIMOD – to build capacity on using EO and geospatial technology for effective decision making in the region. The book highlights SERVIR’s approaches to the design and delivery of information services – in agriculture and food security; land cover and land use change, and ecosystems; water resources and hydro-climatic disasters; and weather and climate services. It also touches upon multidisciplinary topics such as service planning; gender integration; user engagement; capacity building; communication; and monitoring, evaluation, and learning. We hope that this book will be a good reference document for professionals and practitioners working in remote sensing, geographic information systems, regional and spatial sciences, climate change, ecosystems, and environmental analysis. Furthermore, we are hopeful that policymakers, academics, and other informed audiences working in sustainable development and evaluation – beyond the wider SERVIR network and well as within it – will greatly benefit from what we share here on our applications, case studies, and documentation across cross-cutting topics

The Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment

This open access volume is the first comprehensive assessment of the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region. It comprises important scientific research on the social, economic, and environmental pillars of sustainable mountain development and will serve as a basis for evidence-based decision-making to safeguard the environment and advance people’s well-being. The compiled content is based on the collective knowledge of over 300 leading researchers, experts and policymakers, brought together by the Hindu Kush Himalayan Monitoring and Assessment Programme (HIMAP) under the coordination of the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD). This assessment was conducted between 2013 and 2017 as the first of a series of monitoring and assessment reports, under the guidance of the HIMAP Steering Committee: Eklabya Sharma (ICIMOD), Atiq Raman (Bangladesh), Yuba Raj Khatiwada (Nepal), Linxiu Zhang (China), Surendra Pratap Singh (India), Tandong Yao (China) and David Molden (ICIMOD and Chair of the HIMAP SC). This First HKH Assessment Report consists of 16 chapters, which comprehensively assess the current state of knowledge of the HKH region, increase the understanding of various drivers of change and their impacts, address critical data gaps and develop a set of evidence-based and actionable policy solutions and recommendations. These are linked to nine mountain priorities for the mountains and people of the HKH consistent with the Sustainable Development Goals. This book is a must-read for policy makers, academics and students interested in this important region and an essentially important resource for contributors to global assessments such as the IPCC reports. ; Constitutes the first comprehensive assessment of the Hindu Kush Himalaya region, providing an authoritative overview of the region Assembles the collective knowledge of over 300 leading researchers, practitioners, experts, and policymakers Combines the current state of knowledge of the Hindu Kush Himalaya region in one volume Offers Open Access to a set of practically oriented policy recommendation

Citizen Science: Reducing Risk and Building Resilience to Natural Hazards

Natural hazards are becoming increasingly frequent within the context of climate change—making reducing risk and building resilience against these hazards more crucial than ever. An emerging shift has been noted from broad-scale, top-down risk and resilience assessments toward more participatory, community-based, bottom-up approaches. Arguably, non-scientist local stakeholders have always played an important role in risk knowledge management and resilience building. Rapidly developing information and communication technologies such as the Internet, smartphones, and social media have already demonstrated their sizeable potential to make knowledge creation more multidirectional, decentralized, diverse, and inclusive (Paul et al., 2018). Combined with technologies for robust and low-cost sensor networks, various citizen science approaches have emerged recently (e.g., Haklay, 2012; Paul et al., 2018) as a promising direction in the provision of extensive, real-time information for risk management (as well as improving data provision in data-scarce regions). It can serve as a means of educating and empowering communities and stakeholders that are bypassed by more traditional knowledge generation processes. This Research Topic compiles 13 contributions that interrogate the manifold ways in which citizen science has been interpreted to reduce risk against hazards that are (i) water-related (i.e., floods, hurricanes, drought, landslides); (ii) deep-earth-related (i.e., earthquakes and volcanoes); and (iii) responding to global environmental change such as sea-level rise. We have sought to analyse the particular failures and successes of natural hazards-related citizen science projects: the objective is to obtain a clearer understanding of “best practice” in a citizen science context

Conceptual development of an early warning system for glacial lake outburst floods in central Asia: Pilot site modelling for disaster risk reduction

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are a common and dangerous glacial hazard which threatens millions of people in high mountainous regions worldwide. The availability of an early warning system (EWS) for GLOFs can alleviate the impact in case of an event. In Central Asia, devastating GLOF events caused fatalities and infrastructure damage in the past. This thesis aims to develop a conceptual EWS for GLOFs at the pilot site of the Aksay and Ala-Archa valleys in Kyrgyzstan, Central Asia. Utilizing an internationally recognized four-component framework for EWSs—risk knowledge, monitoring and warning, dissemination and communication, and response capability—the study offers a multi-faceted approach to Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) in the region. Based on the possibility of a moraine-dam breach, different worst-case scenarios are developed with peak discharges between 300 m3/s and 900 m3/s that are used in a steady flow simulation within the hydrological modelling tool HEC-RAS to simulate the flooding extent of a GLOF. The study identifies GLOF hotspots and assesses the exposure and vulnerability of infrastructure and residential areas, estimating the GLOF danger of 251 to 407 residents along the Ala-Archa river channel. Based on the risk assessments, the study proposes an EWS including monitoring of the glacial lake and a detection and warning system. The system emphasizes redundancy, cost-effectiveness, includes suggestions for two types of detection sensors and the use of air and electrical horns for warnings. The study further proposes practical dissemination and communication strategies, and outlines response capability necessities including an emergency response plan. The thesis concludes by highlighting areas for future research, including community involvement, technical implementation, and dam vulnerability assessments, to further refine and possibly implement the conceptual EWS

Landscape, Livelihoods and Risk: Community Vulnerability to Landslides in Nepal

The occurrence of fatal landslides in Nepal is increasing with time, faster than the effects of monsoonal variations. Possible explanations for the trends observed include: land-use change, population growth, and the development of transport infrastructure. However, to date, there is little evidence to support these postulated causes and very little research into the nature of landslide vulnerability in the Nepalese context. This research takes an interdisciplinary approach to examine, and where necessary, challenge a series of assumptions made regarding landslide vulnerability in Nepal with a view to developing a better understanding of social vulnerability and its underlying causes. Firstly, a bottom up livelihoods based approach is adopted to examine the following research questions: (1) Who is vulnerable to landslide hazard?; (2) Why do people occupy landslide prone areas?; and (3) How do ‘at risk’ rural communities perceive and respond to landslide hazard and risk? In so doing, this thesis approaches the question of landslide vulnerability from the perspective of the vulnerable people themselves. Secondly, the research explores how scientists and policy experts view landslide risk management in Nepal and how policy is subsequently informed and shaped. The findings highlight the impact of infrastructure projects in rural Nepal. Within the Upper Bhote Koshi Valley clear transitions in settlement patterns and rural livelihoods (and thus the occupation of landslide prone areas) have been seen over time. For the majority of households, their decision to occupy these areas is driven by the economic and social benefits associated with the road. Landslide risk therefore emerges not just from societal marginalisation but also from situations of relative prosperity. The findings suggest that occupants of landslide prone areas have a good understanding of landslide hazard and its associated risk. However, these risks are contextualised in relation to other social concerns. The significance of the findings for landslide policy and practice are addressed along with different actors’ views of landslide risk management in Nepal

Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) Hazard Mitigation at Himalayan Region, Nepal

Glacier retreat is a strong indicator of climate change and global warming. The anthropogenic changes in the Earth's atmosphere are mostly to blame for the climate extremes and their consequences in the last few decades. The Himalayan region is no exclusion to the trend. As glaciers begin to retreat, the glacial lake starts to fill or form behind the natural moraine or ice dam in the glaciers. The sudden release of the water, known as the Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF), can release a large amount of water and sediment. There have been various destructive GLOFs recorded in Nepal since the 1960s. It is vital to understand the GLOF dynamics, geomorphology and historical events to mitigate the GLOF hazards in the region. An advanced approach based on remote sensing data and empirical evidence is more suitable to tackle these issues. This research investigated 11 among 30 past events recorded in the HKH region (Nepal) to establish the causes and triggering factors that led to the catastrophic failure, which helped establish the vulnerability assessment of these glacial lakes. This eventually led to creating a GLOF vulnerability assessment framework that is unique and useful to the communities. This research concluded that 40% of the GLOF events was due to the moraine dam failure. In the retrospective approach, 5 out of 11 glacial lakes scored a very high total vulnerability score (TVR), which suffered catastrophic events in the past. The TVR of the currently existing 21 potential dangerous glacial lakes (PDGL) in Nepal was also conducted using the proposed assessment framework that concluded the 7 very high, 4 high, 5 medium, and the rest are low. Hence, this assessment tool's reliability is very high. This research also concluded that there should integrated approach to climate change adaptation and hazard mitigations in the region