Use of a Bayesian belief network to predict the impacts of commercializing non-timber forest products on livelihoods

Commercialization of non-timber forest products (NTFPs) has been widely promoted as a means of sustainably developing tropical forest resources, in a way that promotes forest conservation while supporting rural livelihoods. However, in practice, NTFP commercialization has often failed to deliver the expected benefits. Progress in analyzing the causes of such failure has been hindered by the lack of a suitable framework for the analysis of NTFP case studies, and by the lack of predictive theory. We address these needs by developing a probabilistic model based on a livelihood framework, enabling the impact of NTFP commercialization on livelihoods to be predicted. The framework considers five types of capital asset needed to support livelihoods: natural, human, social, physical, and financial. Commercialization of NTFPs is represented in the model as the conversion of one form of capital asset into another, which is influenced by a variety of socio-economic, environmental, and political factors. Impacts on livelihoods are determined by the availability of the five types of assets following commercialization. The model, implemented as a Bayesian Belief Network, was tested using data from participatory research into 19 NTFP case studies undertaken in Mexico and Bolivia. The model provides a novel tool for diagnosing the causes of success and failure in NTFP commercialization, and can be used to explore the potential impacts of policy options and other interventions on livelihoods. The potential value of this approach for the development of NTFP theory is discussed

Critical Dynamics of a Two-dimensional Superfluid near a Non-Thermal Fixed Point

Critical dynamics of an ultracold Bose gas far from equilibrium is studied in two spatial dimensions. Superfluid turbulence is created by quenching the equilibrium state close to zero temperature. Instead of immediately re-thermalizing, the system approaches a meta-stable transient state, characterized as a non-thermal fixed point. A focus is set on the vortex density and vortex-antivortex correlations which characterize the evolution towards the non-thermal fixed point and the departure to final (quasi-)condensation. Two distinct power-law regimes in the vortex-density decay are found and discussed in terms of a vortex binding-unbinding transition and a kinetic description of vortex scattering. A possible relation to decaying turbulence in classical fluids is pointed out. By comparing the results to equilibrium studies of a two-dimensional Bose gas, an intuitive understanding of the location of the non-thermal fixed point in a reduced phase space is developed.Comment: 11 pages, 13 figures; PRA versio

Non Timber Forest Products and Biodiversity Conservation - A Study of Tribals in a Protected Area in India

This study analyses the economics of Non Timber Forest Products (NTFPs) and the economic values appropriated by tribals in a protected area in India. Using primary data covering a cross section of tribals in the Nagarhole National Park (NNP), South India the stud y notes that the economic values appropriated by the tribals are quite high. Even after including external costs (i.e. wildlife damages costs and defensive expenditures to protect against wildlife attacks) the Net Present Value of NTFP benefits derived by the tribal households was over Rs 30,378 per household (at 12% discount rate for cash flows summed over 25 years). Interestingly when the external costs borne by third parties (i.e., coffee growers) are taken into account the net NTFP benefits turned negative. In other words, although from the NTFP extractors viewpoint NTFP extraction is a viable activity, from the society's viewpoint this is not so. The estimated net NTFP benefits from NNP after including the external costs borne by NTFP extractors was estimated at between USD 33.5 to 167.5 per ha per year using alternate assumptions regarding the park's catchment area. The tribals have a positive attitude towards biodiversity conservation. Asked to justify and rank the reasons why biodiversity needs to be conserved, the tribals emphasized its livelihood and ecosystem fun ctions. Using contingent valuation method, the study notes that those with income from coffee estates and forest employment, and those residing in the core zone of the national park are less willing to accept compensation and relocate outside the national park. The study suggests improving the incentive structure in order to obtain the support and participation of tribals in biodiversity conservation strategies.Non Timber Forest Products, Biodiversity Conservation, Net Present Values, External Costs, Contingent Valuation Method, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Livelihood gains and ecological costs of NTFP dependence: assessing the roles of dependence, ecological knowledge and market structure in three contrasting human and ecological settings in south India

Non-timber forest products (NTFPs) constitute the single largest determinant of livelihoods for scores of forest fringe communities and poor people in the tropics. In India over 50 million people are believed to be directly dependent upon NTFPs for their subsistence. However, such human dependence on NTFPs for livelihood gains (win) has most frequently been at a certain ecological cost (lose). If livelihoods are to be maintained, the existing ‘win-lose’ settings have to be steered to a ‘win-win’ mode, otherwise, there could be severe erosion of the biological resources and loss of livelihoods (‘lose-lose’). Examining the dependence of forest fringe communities on NTFPs at three sites in south India with contrasting human and ecological settings, three key factors (extent of dependence on NTFPs, indigenous ecological knowledge and market organization) are likely to constrain reaching the win-win situation. How these factors shape the ecological cost of harvesting NTFPs at the three sites is examined. Within the parameter space of these factors, it is possible to predict outcomes and associations that will conform to win-win or win-lose situations. Empirical data derived from the three study sites demonstrate the causality of the observed associations. The key for long-term livelihood gains lies in reducing the ecological cost. Certain interventions and recommendations that could optimize the balance between livelihood gains and ecological cost are proposed

Universal dynamics on the way to thermalisation

It is demonstrated how a many-body system far from thermal equilibrium can exhibit universal dynamics in passing a non-thermal fixed point. As an example, the process of Bose-Einstein (BE) condensation of a dilute cold gas is considered. If the particle flux into the low-energy modes, induced, e.g., by a cooling quench, is sufficiently strong, the Bose gas develops a characteristic power-law single-particle spectrum $n(k)\sim k^{-5}$, and critical slowing down in time occurs. The fixed point is shown to be marked by the creation and dilution of tangled vortex lines. Alternatively, for a weak cooling quench and particle flux, the condensation process runs quasi adiabatically, passing by the fixed point in far distance, and signatures of critical scaling remain absent.Comment: 5+2 pages, 8 figure

Linking local people's perception of wildlife and conservation to livelihood and poaching alleviation : a case study of the Dja biosphere reserve, Cameroon

This Paper examines how people's livelihoods and perceptions of wildlife are related to self-reported poaching (here defined as commercial bushmeat hunting) in 25 villages at the northern buffer zone of the Dja Biosphere Reserve, East Cameroon. Using a six-point Likert scale questionnaire among 263 households interviewed form March to June 2017, the following hypothesis were tested: (1) Households with positive perceptions of wildlife are less involved in poaching; (2) Positive perceptions of wildlife are linked to sustainable livelihood improvement of households; and (3) Sustainable livelihood improvement of households leads to poaching alleviation. The study area has been the site since 2010 for a community-centered conservation Program that aims to improve local peoples livelihoods (through the creation of income sources based on cocoa-based agroforestry and Non Timber Forest Products (NTFPs) Valorization) and their perceptions of wildlife (mainly through awareness raising and wildlife education) and therefore divert them from poaching. The main findings of the study indicates that positive perceptions of wildlife are linked to lower levels of poaching. Similarly, positive perception of wildlife was positively related to Livelihood improvement of the respondents. However, livelihood improvement alone did not predict poaching alleviation though we reported a significant difference in poaching frequencies of cocoa and non-cocoa producers with the firsts less involved in poaching. The findings of this study recommend more holistic approaches of biodiversity conservation that integrate simultaneously perception and livelihood improvement

Community Dependence on Non-timber Forest Products - A Household Analysis and its Implication for Forest Conservation

This study explores the factors determining the dependence of local people on protected area of forest based on household analysis of a Protected Area from Kerala. The findings confirm the hypothesis that alternative income source would greatly reduce the dependence and hence ease the conflict between local people interests and forest management in conservation activities. This study raised certain issues in the institutional mechanism of marketing and management of non-wood forest products. The price spread highlighted the large difference between sellers (gatherers) price and final retail price. Ensuring a fair share to the local people in the final value added and bringing together traditional knowledge of the villager and the commercial ventures making the final product for efficient sharing of benefits would act as incentives for the gatherers to extract the product in a sustainable way and also to cooperate willingly in the conservation activities.forest products, sustainable management, community livelihood

Community dependence on non-timber forest products: A Household analysis and its implication for forest conservation

This study explores the factors determining the dependence of local people on protected area of forest based on household analysis of a Protected Area from Kerala. The findings confirm the hypothesis that alternative income source would greatly reduce the dependence and hence ease the conflict between local people interests and forest management in conservation activities. This study raised certain issues in the institutional mechanism of marketing and management of non-wood forest products. The price spread highlighted the large difference between sellers (gatherer's) price and final retail price. Ensuring a fair share to the local people in the final value added and bringing together traditional knowledge of the villager and the commercial ventures making the final product for efficient sharing of benefits would act as incentives for the gatherers to extract the product in a sustainable way and also to cooperate willingly in the conservation activities.forest products, sustainable management, community livelihood