47,673 research outputs found
Predicting Spatio-Temporal Time Series Using Dimension Reduced Local States
We present a method for both cross estimation and iterated time series
prediction of spatio temporal dynamics based on reconstructed local states, PCA
dimension reduction, and local modelling using nearest neighbour methods. The
effectiveness of this approach is shown for (noisy) data from a (cubic) Barkley
model, the Bueno-Orovio-Cherry-Fenton model, and the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky
model
Comparison of Gaussian process modeling software
Gaussian process fitting, or kriging, is often used to create a model from a
set of data. Many available software packages do this, but we show that very
different results can be obtained from different packages even when using the
same data and model. We describe the parameterization, features, and
optimization used by eight different fitting packages that run on four
different platforms. We then compare these eight packages using various data
functions and data sets, revealing that there are stark differences between the
packages. In addition to comparing the prediction accuracy, the predictive
variance--which is important for evaluating precision of predictions and is
often used in stopping criteria--is also evaluated
Optimal model-free prediction from multivariate time series
© 2015 American Physical Society.Forecasting a time series from multivariate predictors constitutes a challenging problem, especially using model-free approaches. Most techniques, such as nearest-neighbor prediction, quickly suffer from the curse of dimensionality and overfitting for more than a few predictors which has limited their application mostly to the univariate case. Therefore, selection strategies are needed that harness the available information as efficiently as possible. Since often the right combination of predictors matters, ideally all subsets of possible predictors should be tested for their predictive power, but the exponentially growing number of combinations makes such an approach computationally prohibitive. Here a prediction scheme that overcomes this strong limitation is introduced utilizing a causal preselection step which drastically reduces the number of possible predictors to the most predictive set of causal drivers making a globally optimal search scheme tractable. The information-theoretic optimality is derived and practical selection criteria are discussed. As demonstrated for multivariate nonlinear stochastic delay processes, the optimal scheme can even be less computationally expensive than commonly used suboptimal schemes like forward selection. The method suggests a general framework to apply the optimal model-free approach to select variables and subsequently fit a model to further improve a prediction or learn statistical dependencies. The performance of this framework is illustrated on a climatological index of El Niño Southern Oscillation
Optimal model-free prediction from multivariate time series
Forecasting a time series from multivariate predictors constitutes a
challenging problem, especially using model-free approaches. Most techniques,
such as nearest-neighbor prediction, quickly suffer from the curse of
dimensionality and overfitting for more than a few predictors which has limited
their application mostly to the univariate case. Therefore, selection
strategies are needed that harness the available information as efficiently as
possible. Since often the right combination of predictors matters, ideally all
subsets of possible predictors should be tested for their predictive power, but
the exponentially growing number of combinations makes such an approach
computationally prohibitive. Here a prediction scheme that overcomes this
strong limitation is introduced utilizing a causal pre-selection step which
drastically reduces the number of possible predictors to the most predictive
set of causal drivers making a globally optimal search scheme tractable. The
information-theoretic optimality is derived and practical selection criteria
are discussed. As demonstrated for multivariate nonlinear stochastic delay
processes, the optimal scheme can even be less computationally expensive than
commonly used sub-optimal schemes like forward selection. The method suggests a
general framework to apply the optimal model-free approach to select variables
and subsequently fit a model to further improve a prediction or learn
statistical dependencies. The performance of this framework is illustrated on a
climatological index of El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation.Comment: 14 pages, 9 figure
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