Multiobjective Tactical Planning under Uncertainty for Air Traffic Flow and Capacity Management

We investigate a method to deal with congestion of sectors and delays in the tactical phase of air traffic flow and capacity management. It relies on temporal objectives given for every point of the flight plans and shared among the controllers in order to create a collaborative environment. This would enhance the transition from the network view of the flow management to the local view of air traffic control. Uncertainty is modeled at the trajectory level with temporal information on the boundary points of the crossed sectors and then, we infer the probabilistic occupancy count. Therefore, we can model the accuracy of the trajectory prediction in the optimization process in order to fix some safety margins. On the one hand, more accurate is our prediction; more efficient will be the proposed solutions, because of the tighter safety margins. On the other hand, when uncertainty is not negligible, the proposed solutions will be more robust to disruptions. Furthermore, a multiobjective algorithm is used to find the tradeoff between the delays and congestion, which are antagonist in airspace with high traffic density. The flow management position can choose manually, or automatically with a preference-based algorithm, the adequate solution. This method is tested against two instances, one with 10 flights and 5 sectors and one with 300 flights and 16 sectors.Comment: IEEE Congress on Evolutionary Computation (2013). arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1309.391

Multiobjective Tactical Planning under Uncertainty for Air Traffic Flow and Capacity Management

International audienceWe investigate a method to deal with congestion of sectors and delays in the tactical phase of air traffic flow and capacity management. It relies on temporal objectives given for every point of the flight plans and shared among the controllers in order to create a collaborative environment. This would enhance the transition from the network view of the flow management to the local view of air traffic control. Uncertainty is modeled at the trajectory level with temporal information on the boundary points of the crossed sectors and then, we infer the probabilistic occupancy count. Therefore, we can model the accuracy of the trajectory prediction in the optimization process in order to fix some safety margins. On the one hand, more accurate is our prediction; more efficient will be the proposed solutions, because of the tighter safety margins. On the other hand, when uncertainty is not negligible, the proposed solutions will be more robust to disruptions. Furthermore, a multiobjective algorithm is used to find the tradeoff between the delays and congestion, which are antagonist in airspace with high traffic density. The flow management position can choose manually, or automatically with a preference-based algorithm, the adequate solution. This method is tested against two instances, one with 10 flights and 5 sectors and one with 300 flights and 16 sectors

Принципи управління безпекою потоків повітряного руху та пропускною здатністю в умовах невизначеності

Purpose: The aim of this study is to investigate the general principles of safety and capacity management in Aeronautical systems regarding air traffic flows operations under uncertainty conditions. In this work the theoretical framework assessing at the same time both the uncertainty model and flight plans model are proposed. Methods: To study features of safety of air traffic flows and capacity under uncertainty conditions were built the original probabilistic models including Bayesian Network for flight plan and air traffic control sector model based on Poisson Binomial Distribution. Results: We obtained models for safety management of air traffic flows and capacity under uncertainty conditions. We discussed appropriate approach for estimating the parameters of safety of air traffic flows and capacity under uncertainty and Markovian uncertainty model for the flight plan. Discussion: We developed the Bayesian Network for flight plan and air traffic control sector models for safety management of air traffic flows and capacity under uncertainty conditions.Целью данного исследования является изучение общих принципов управления безопасностью и пропускной способностью в аэронавигационных системах в отношении потоков воздушного движения в условиях неопределенности. В данной работе предложены теоретические основы совместной оценки модели неопределенности и модели планов полета. Методы исследования: Для изучения особенностей обеспечения безопасности потоков воздушного движения и пропускной способности в условиях неопределенности, были построены оригинальные вероятностные модели, включая байесовскую сеть для планов полетов и модель сектора воздушного движения на основе биномиального распределения Пуассона. Результаты: Были получены модели для управления безопасностью потоков воздушного движения и пропускной способности в условиях неопределенности. Рассмотрены соответствующий подход для оценки параметров безопасности потоков воздушного движения и пропускной способности в условиях неопределенности и Марковская модель неопределенности для плана полета. Обсуждение: Разработаны байесовская сеть для плана полета и модель сектора воздушного движения для управления безопасностью потоков воздушного движения и пропускной способности в условиях неопределенностиМета: Метою цього дослідження є вивчення загальних принципів управління безпекою та пропускною здатністю в аеронавігаційних системах щодо потоків повітряного руху в умовах невизначеності. У цій роботі запропоновано теоретичні основи спільної оцінки моделі невизначеності і моделі планів польоту. Методи дослідження: Для вивчення особливостей забезпечення безпеки потоків повітряного руху та пропускної здатності в умовах невизначеності було побудовано оригінальні імовірнісні моделі, включаючи Байєсову мережу для планів польотів і модель сектора повітряного руху на основі біноміального розподілу Пуассона. Результати: Було отримано моделі для управління безпекою потоків повітряного руху та пропускної здатності в умовах невизначеності. Розглянуто відповідний підхід для оцінки параметрів безпеки потоків повітряного руху та пропускної здатності в умовах невизначеності і Марковську модель невизначеності для плану польоту. Обговорення: Розроблено Баєсову мережу для плану польотів і модель сектора повітряного руху для управління безпекою потоків повітряного руху та пропускною здатністю в умовах невизначеності

Automated ATM system enabling 4DT-based operations

As part of the current initiatives aimed at enhancing safety, efficiency and environmental sustainability of aviation, a significant improvement in the efficiency of aircraft operations is currently pursued. Innovative Communication, Navigation, Surveillance and Air Traffic Management (CNS/ATM) technologies and operational concepts are being developed to achieve the ambitious goals for efficiency and environmental sustainability set by national and international aviation organizations. These technological and operational innovations will be ultimately enabled by the introduction of novel CNS/ATM and Avionics (CNS+A) systems, featuring higher levels of automation. A core feature of such systems consists in the real-time multi-objective optimization of flight trajectories, incorporating all the operational, economic and environmental aspects of the aircraft mission. This article describes the conceptual design of an innovative ground-based Air Traffic Management (ATM) system featuring automated 4-Dimensional Trajectory (4DT) functionalities. The 4DT planning capability is based on the multi-objective optimization of 4DT intents. After summarizing the concept of operations, the top-level system architecture and the key 4DT optimization modules, we discuss the segmentation algorithm to obtain flyable and concisely described 4DT. Simulation case studies in representative scenarios show that the adopted algorithms generate solutions consistently within the timeframe of online tactical rerouting tasks, meeting the set design requirements

OPTIMIZATION OF RAILWAY TRANSPORTATION HAZMATS AND REGULAR COMMODITIES

Transportation of dangerous goods has been receiving more attention in the realm of academic and scientific research during the last few decades as countries have been increasingly becoming industrialized throughout the world, thereby making Hazmats an integral part of our life style. However, the number of scholarly articles in this field is not as many as those of other areas in SCM. Considering the low-probability-and-high-consequence (LPHC) essence of transportation of Hazmats, on the one hand, and immense volume of shipments accounting for more than hundred tons in North America and Europe, on the other, we can safely state that the number of scholarly articles and dissertations have not been proportional to the significance of the subject of interest. On this ground, we conducted our research to contribute towards further developing the domain of Hazmats transportation, and sustainable supply chain management (SSCM), in general terms. Transportation of Hazmats, from logistical standpoint, may include all modes of transport via air, marine, road and rail, as well as intermodal transportation systems. Although road shipment is predominant in most of the literature, railway transportation of Hazmats has proven to be a potentially significant means of transporting dangerous goods with respect to both economies of scale and risk of transportation; these factors, have not just given rise to more thoroughly investigation of intermodal transportation of Hazmats using road and rail networks, but has encouraged the competition between rail and road companies which may indeed have some inherent advantages compared to the other medium due to their infrastructural and technological backgrounds. Truck shipment has ostensibly proven to be providing more flexibility; trains, per contra, provide more reliability in terms of transport risk for conveying Hazmats in bulks. In this thesis, in consonance with the aforementioned motivation, we provide an introduction into the hazardous commodities shipment through rail network in the first chapter of the thesis. Providing relevant statistics on the volume of Hazmat goods, number of accidents, rate of incidents, and rate of fatalities and injuries due to the incidents involving Hazmats, will shed light onto the significance of the topic under study. As well, we review the most pertinent articles while putting more emphasis on the state-of-the-art papers, in chapter two. Following the discussion in chapter 3 and looking at the problem from carrier company’s perspective, a mixed integer quadratically constraint problem (MIQCP) is developed which seeks for the minimization of transportation cost under a set of constraints including those associating with Hazmats. Due to the complexity of the problem, the risk function has been piecewise linearized using a set of auxiliary variables, thereby resulting in an MIP problem. Further, considering the interests of both carrier companies and regulatory agencies, which are minimization of cost and risk, respectively, a multiobjective MINLP model is developed, which has been reduced to an MILP through piecewise linearization of the risk term in the objective function. For both single-objective and multiobjective formulations, model variants with bifurcated and nonbifurcated flows have been presented. Then, in chapter 4, we carry out experiments considering two main cases where the first case presents smaller instances of the problem and the second case focuses on a larger instance of the problem. Eventually, in chapter five, we conclude the dissertation with a summary of the overall discussion as well as presenting some comments on avenues of future work

Computational Methods for Probabilistic Inference of Sector Congestion in Air Traffic Management

This article addresses the issue of computing the expected cost functions from a probabilistic model of the air traffic flow and capacity management. The Clenshaw-Curtis quadrature is compared to Monte-Carlo algorithms defined specifically for this problem. By tailoring the algorithms to this model, we reduce the computational burden in order to simulate real instances. The study shows that the Monte-Carlo algorithm is more sensible to the amount of uncertainty in the system, but has the advantage to return a result with the associated accuracy on demand. The performances for both approaches are comparable for the computation of the expected cost of delay and the expected cost of congestion. Finally, this study shows some evidences that the simulation of the proposed probabilistic model is tractable for realistic instances.Comment: Interdisciplinary Science for Innovative Air Traffic Management (2013

What cost reslience?

Air traffic management research lacks a framework for modelling the cost of resilience during disturbance. There is no universally accepted metric for cost resilience. The design of such a framework is presented and the modelling to date is reported. The framework allows performance assessment as a function of differential stakeholder uptake of strategic mechanisms designed to mitigate disturbance. Advanced metrics, cost- and non-cost-based, disaggregated by stakeholder subtypes, will be deployed. A new cost resilience metric is proposed

Optimizing key parameters of ground delay program with uncertain airport capacity

The Ground Delay Program (GDP) relies heavily on the capacity of the subject airport, which, due to its uncertainty, adds to the difficulty and suboptimality of GDP operation. This paper proposes a framework for the joint optimization of GDP key parameters including file time, end time, and distance. These parameters are articulated and incorporated in a GDP model, based on which an optimization problem is proposed and solved under uncertain airport capacity. Unlike existing literature, this paper explicitly calculates the optimal GDP file time, which could significantly reduce the delay times as shown in our numerical study. We also propose a joint GDP end-time-and-distance model solved with genetic algorithm. The optimization problem takes into account the GDP operational efficiency, airline and flight equity, and Air Traffic Control (ATC) risks. A simulation study with real-world data is undertaken to demonstrate the advantage of the proposed framework. It is shown that, in comparison with the current GDP in operation, the proposed solution reduces the total delay time, unnecessary ground delay, and unnecessary ground delay flights by 14.7%, 50.8%, and 48.3%, respectively. The proposed GDP strategy has the potential to effectively reduce the overall delay while maintaining the ATC safety risk within an acceptable level

On the generation of environmentally efficient flight trajectories

To achieve a sustainable future for air transport, the International Civil Aviation Organization has proposed goals for reductions in community noise impact, local air quality and climate impacting emissions. The goals are intended to be achieved through advances in engine design, aircraft design and through improvements in aircraft operational procedures. This thesis focuses on operational procedures, and considers how trajectory generation methods can be used to support flight and airspace planners in the planning and delivery of environmentally efficient flight operations. The problem of planning environmentally efficient trajectories is treated as an optimal control problem that is solved through the application of a direct method of trajectory optimisation combined with a stochastic Non Linear Programming (NLP) solver. Solving the problem in this manner allows decision makers to explore the relationships between how aircraft are operated and the consequent environmental impacts of the flights. In particular, this thesis describes a multi-objective optimisation methodology intended to support the planning of environmentally efficient climb and descent procedures. The method combines environmental, trajectory and NLP methods to generate Pareto fronts between several competing objectives. It is shown how Pareto front information can then be used to allow decision makers to make informed decisions about potential tradeoffs between different environmental goals. The method is demonstrated through its application to a number of real world, many objective procedure optimisation studies. The method is shown to support in depth analysis of the case study problems and was used to identify best balance procedure characteristics and procedures in an objective, data driven approach not achievable through existing methods. Driven by operator specific goals to reduce CO2 emissions, work in this thesis also looks at trajectory based flight planning of CO2 efficient trajectories. The results are used to better understand the impacts of ATM constraints and recommended procedures on both the energy management and fuel efficiency of flights. Further to this, it is shown how trajectory optimisation methods can be applied to the analysis of conventional assumptions on fuel efficient aircraft operations. While the work within is intended to be directly relevant to the current air traffic management system, both consideration and discussion is given over to the evolution and continued relevance of the work to the Single European Sky trajectory based concept of operation

Applications of stochastic modeling in air traffic management : Methods, challenges and opportunities for solving air traffic problems under uncertainty

In this paper we provide a wide-ranging review of the literature on stochastic modeling applications within aviation, with a particular focus on problems involving demand and capacity management and the mitigation of air traffic congestion. From an operations research perspective, the main techniques of interest include analytical queueing theory, stochastic optimal control, robust optimization and stochastic integer programming. Applications of these techniques include the prediction of operational delays at airports, pre-tactical control of aircraft departure times, dynamic control and allocation of scarce airport resources and various others. We provide a critical review of recent developments in the literature and identify promising research opportunities for stochastic modelers within air traffic management