ESSAYS ON NUDGING CUSTOMERS’ BEHAVIORS: EVIDENCE FROM ONLINE GROCERY SHOPPING AND CROWDFUNDING

The dissertation consists of three essays that employ predictive analytics, structural modeling techniques and field experiments to understand and nudge customers’ behaviors in two types of online engagement platforms. The first one is customers’ purchase behaviors in an online grocery store and the other is customer’ contribution behaviors in a reward-based crowdfunding platform. In both contexts, we study how to actively nudge their behaviors. In Chapter 2, we investigates how, when dealing with products that are available in limited quantities, customers may be nudged to purchase them. Specifically, our main problem is to identify targeted customers to receive the limited number of coupons. We develop a Support Vector Machines (SVM) based approach to rank order customers. We conduct a field experiment in an online grocery store to evaluate how well the identified customers are nudged through information and/or couponing. We find that, in terms of the successful nudges, our SVM-based approach performed better than other approaches

Ranking to Learn and Learning to Rank: On the Role of Ranking in Pattern Recognition Applications

The last decade has seen a revolution in the theory and application of machine learning and pattern recognition. Through these advancements, variable ranking has emerged as an active and growing research area and it is now beginning to be applied to many new problems. The rationale behind this fact is that many pattern recognition problems are by nature ranking problems. The main objective of a ranking algorithm is to sort objects according to some criteria, so that, the most relevant items will appear early in the produced result list. Ranking methods can be analyzed from two different methodological perspectives: ranking to learn and learning to rank. The former aims at studying methods and techniques to sort objects for improving the accuracy of a machine learning model. Enhancing a model performance can be challenging at times. For example, in pattern classification tasks, different data representations can complicate and hide the different explanatory factors of variation behind the data. In particular, hand-crafted features contain many cues that are either redundant or irrelevant, which turn out to reduce the overall accuracy of the classifier. In such a case feature selection is used, that, by producing ranked lists of features, helps to filter out the unwanted information. Moreover, in real-time systems (e.g., visual trackers) ranking approaches are used as optimization procedures which improve the robustness of the system that deals with the high variability of the image streams that change over time. The other way around, learning to rank is necessary in the construction of ranking models for information retrieval, biometric authentication, re-identification, and recommender systems. In this context, the ranking model's purpose is to sort objects according to their degrees of relevance, importance, or preference as defined in the specific application.Comment: European PhD Thesis. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1601.06615, arXiv:1505.06821, arXiv:1704.02665 by other author

Ranking to Learn and Learning to Rank: On the Role of Ranking in Pattern Recognition Applications

The last decade has seen a revolution in the theory and application of machine learning and pattern recognition. Through these advancements, variable ranking has emerged as an active and growing research area and it is now beginning to be applied to many new problems. The rationale behind this fact is that many pattern recognition problems are by nature ranking problems. The main objective of a ranking algorithm is to sort objects according to some criteria, so that, the most relevant items will appear early in the produced result list. Ranking methods can be analyzed from two different methodological perspectives: ranking to learn and learning to rank. The former aims at studying methods and techniques to sort objects for improving the accuracy of a machine learning model. Enhancing a model performance can be challenging at times. For example, in pattern classification tasks, different data representations can complicate and hide the different explanatory factors of variation behind the data. In particular, hand-crafted features contain many cues that are either redundant or irrelevant, which turn out to reduce the overall accuracy of the classifier. In such a case feature selection is used, that, by producing ranked lists of features, helps to filter out the unwanted information. Moreover, in real-time systems (e.g., visual trackers) ranking approaches are used as optimization procedures which improve the robustness of the system that deals with the high variability of the image streams that change over time. The other way around, learning to rank is necessary in the construction of ranking models for information retrieval, biometric authentication, re-identification, and recommender systems. In this context, the ranking model's purpose is to sort objects according to their degrees of relevance, importance, or preference as defined in the specific application.Comment: European PhD Thesis. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1601.06615, arXiv:1505.06821, arXiv:1704.02665 by other author

Probabilistic Personalized Recommendation Models For Heterogeneous Social Data

Content recommendation has risen to a new dimension with the advent of platforms like Twitter, Facebook, FriendFeed, Dailybooth, and Instagram. Although this uproar of data has provided us with a goldmine of real-world information, the problem of information overload has become a major barrier in developing predictive models. Therefore, the objective of this The- sis is to propose various recommendation, prediction and information retrieval models that are capable of leveraging such vast heterogeneous content. More specifically, this Thesis focuses on proposing models based on probabilistic generative frameworks for the following tasks: (a) recommending backers and projects in Kickstarter crowdfunding domain and (b) point of interest recommendation in Foursquare. Through comprehensive set of experiments over a variety of datasets, we show that our models are capable of providing practically useful results for recommendation and information retrieval tasks

A Framework for Personalized Content Recommendations to Support Informal Learning in Massively Diverse Information WIKIS

Personalization has proved to achieve better learning outcomes by adapting to specific learners’ needs, interests, and/or preferences. Traditionally, most personalized learning software systems focused on formal learning. However, learning personalization is not only desirable for formal learning, it is also required for informal learning, which is self-directed, does not follow a specified curriculum, and does not lead to formal qualifications. Wikis among other informal learning platforms are found to attract an increasing attention for informal learning, especially Wikipedia. The nature of wikis enables learners to freely navigate the learning environment and independently construct knowledge without being forced to follow a predefined learning path in accordance with the constructivist learning theory. Nevertheless, navigation on information wikis suffer from several limitations. To support informal learning on Wikipedia and similar environments, it is important to provide easy and fast access to relevant content. Recommendation systems (RSs) have long been used to effectively provide useful recommendations in different technology enhanced learning (TEL) contexts. However, the massive diversity of unstructured content as well as user base on such information oriented websites poses major challenges when designing recommendation models for similar environments. In addition to these challenges, evaluation of TEL recommender systems for informal learning is rather a challenging activity due to the inherent difficulty in measuring the impact of recommendations on informal learning with the absence of formal assessment and commonly used learning analytics. In this research, a personalized content recommendation framework (PCRF) for information wikis as well as an evaluation framework that can be used to evaluate the impact of personalized content recommendations on informal learning from wikis are proposed. The presented recommendation framework models learners’ interests by continuously extrapolating topical navigation graphs from learners’ free navigation and applying graph structural analysis algorithms to extract interesting topics for individual users. Then, it integrates learners’ interest models with fuzzy thesauri for personalized content recommendations. Our evaluation approach encompasses two main activities. First, the impact of personalized recommendations on informal learning is evaluated by assessing conceptual knowledge in users’ feedback. Second, web analytics data is analyzed to get an insight into users’ progress and focus throughout the test session. Our evaluation revealed that PCRF generates highly relevant recommendations that are adaptive to changes in user’s interest using the HARD model with rank-based mean average precision (MAP@k) scores ranging between 100% and 86.4%. In addition, evaluation of informal learning revealed that users who used Wikipedia with personalized support could achieve higher scores on conceptual knowledge assessment with average score of 14.9 compared to 10.0 for the students who used the encyclopedia without any recommendations. The analysis of web analytics data show that users who used Wikipedia with personalized recommendations visited larger number of relevant pages compared to the control group, 644 vs 226 respectively. In addition, they were also able to make use of a larger number of concepts and were able to make comparisons and state relations between concepts

Collaborative-demographic hybrid for financial: product recommendation

Internship Report presented as the partial requirement for obtaining a Master's degree in Data Science and Advanced AnalyticsDue to the increased availability of mature data mining and analysis technologies supporting CRM processes, several financial institutions are striving to leverage customer data and integrate insights regarding customer behaviour, needs, and preferences into their marketing approach. As decision support systems assisting marketing and commercial efforts, Recommender Systems applied to the financial domain have been gaining increased attention. This thesis studies a Collaborative- Demographic Hybrid Recommendation System, applied to the financial services sector, based on real data provided by a Portuguese private commercial bank. This work establishes a framework to support account managers’ advice on which financial product is most suitable for each of the bank’s corporate clients. The recommendation problem is further developed by conducting a performance comparison for both multi-output regression and multiclass classification prediction approaches. Experimental results indicate that multiclass architectures are better suited for the prediction task, outperforming alternative multi-output regression models on the evaluation metrics considered. Withal, multiclass Feed-Forward Neural Networks, combined with Recursive Feature Elimination, is identified as the topperforming algorithm, yielding a 10-fold cross-validated F1 Measure of 83.16%, and achieving corresponding values of Precision and Recall of 84.34%, and 85.29%, respectively. Overall, this study provides important contributions for positioning the bank’s commercial efforts around customers’ future requirements. By allowing for a better understanding of customers’ needs and preferences, the proposed Recommender allows for more personalized and targeted marketing contacts, leading to higher conversion rates, corporate profitability, and customer satisfaction and loyalty