Scalable Approach to Uncertainty Quantification and Robust Design of Interconnected Dynamical Systems

Development of robust dynamical systems and networks such as autonomous aircraft systems capable of accomplishing complex missions faces challenges due to the dynamically evolving uncertainties coming from model uncertainties, necessity to operate in a hostile cluttered urban environment, and the distributed and dynamic nature of the communication and computation resources. Model-based robust design is difficult because of the complexity of the hybrid dynamic models including continuous vehicle dynamics, the discrete models of computations and communications, and the size of the problem. We will overview recent advances in methodology and tools to model, analyze, and design robust autonomous aerospace systems operating in uncertain environment, with stress on efficient uncertainty quantification and robust design using the case studies of the mission including model-based target tracking and search, and trajectory planning in uncertain urban environment. To show that the methodology is generally applicable to uncertain dynamical systems, we will also show examples of application of the new methods to efficient uncertainty quantification of energy usage in buildings, and stability assessment of interconnected power networks

From Uncertainty Data to Robust Policies for Temporal Logic Planning

We consider the problem of synthesizing robust disturbance feedback policies for systems performing complex tasks. We formulate the tasks as linear temporal logic specifications and encode them into an optimization framework via mixed-integer constraints. Both the system dynamics and the specifications are known but affected by uncertainty. The distribution of the uncertainty is unknown, however realizations can be obtained. We introduce a data-driven approach where the constraints are fulfilled for a set of realizations and provide probabilistic generalization guarantees as a function of the number of considered realizations. We use separate chance constraints for the satisfaction of the specification and operational constraints. This allows us to quantify their violation probabilities independently. We compute disturbance feedback policies as solutions of mixed-integer linear or quadratic optimization problems. By using feedback we can exploit information of past realizations and provide feasibility for a wider range of situations compared to static input sequences. We demonstrate the proposed method on two robust motion-planning case studies for autonomous driving

Development of an automated aircraft subsystem architecture generation and analysis tool

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to present a new computational framework to address future preliminary design needs for aircraft subsystems. The ability to investigate multiple candidate technologies forming subsystem architectures is enabled with the provision of automated architecture generation, analysis and optimization. Main focus lies with a demonstration of the frameworks workings, as well as the optimizers performance with a typical form of application problem. Design/methodology/approach – The core aspects involve a functional decomposition, coupled with a synergistic mission performance analysis on the aircraft, architecture and component levels. This may be followed by a complete enumeration of architectures, combined with a user defined technology filtering and concept ranking procedure. In addition, a hybrid heuristic optimizer, based on ant systems optimization and a genetic algorithm, is employed to produce optimal architectures in both component composition and design parameters. The optimizer is tested on a generic architecture design problem combined with modified Griewank and parabolic functions for the continuous space. Findings – Insights from the generalized application problem show consistent rediscovery of the optimal architectures with the optimizer, as compared to a full problem enumeration. In addition multi-objective optimization reveals a Pareto front with differences in component composition as well as continuous parameters. Research limitations/implications – This paper demonstrates the frameworks application on a generalized test problem only. Further publication will consider real engineering design problems. Originality/value – The paper addresses the need for future conceptual design methods of complex systems to consider a mixed concept space of both discrete and continuous nature via automated methods

Relating Objective and Subjective Performance Measures for AAM-based Visual Speech Synthesizers

We compare two approaches for synthesizing visual speech using Active Appearance Models (AAMs): one that utilizes acoustic features as input, and one that utilizes a phonetic transcription as input. Both synthesizers are trained using the same data and the performance is measured using both objective and subjective testing. We investigate the impact of likely sources of error in the synthesized visual speech by introducing typical errors into real visual speech sequences and subjectively measuring the perceived degradation. When only a small region (e.g. a single syllable) of ground-truth visual speech is incorrect we find that the subjective score for the entire sequence is subjectively lower than sequences generated by our synthesizers. This observation motivates further consideration of an often ignored issue, which is to what extent are subjective measures correlated with objective measures of performance? Significantly, we find that the most commonly used objective measures of performance are not necessarily the best indicator of viewer perception of quality. We empirically evaluate alternatives and show that the cost of a dynamic time warp of synthesized visual speech parameters to the respective ground-truth parameters is a better indicator of subjective quality

Symbolic Models for Stochastic Switched Systems: A Discretization and a Discretization-Free Approach

Stochastic switched systems are a relevant class of stochastic hybrid systems with probabilistic evolution over a continuous domain and control-dependent discrete dynamics over a finite set of modes. In the past few years several different techniques have been developed to assist in the stability analysis of stochastic switched systems. However, more complex and challenging objectives related to the verification of and the controller synthesis for logic specifications have not been formally investigated for this class of systems as of yet. With logic specifications we mean properties expressed as formulae in linear temporal logic or as automata on infinite strings. This paper addresses these complex objectives by constructively deriving approximately equivalent (bisimilar) symbolic models of stochastic switched systems. More precisely, this paper provides two different symbolic abstraction techniques: one requires state space discretization, but the other one does not require any space discretization which can be potentially more efficient than the first one when dealing with higher dimensional stochastic switched systems. Both techniques provide finite symbolic models that are approximately bisimilar to stochastic switched systems under some stability assumptions on the concrete model. This allows formally synthesizing controllers (switching signals) that are valid for the concrete system over the finite symbolic model, by means of mature automata-theoretic techniques in the literature. The effectiveness of the results are illustrated by synthesizing switching signals enforcing logic specifications for two case studies including temperature control of a six-room building.Comment: 25 pages, 4 figures. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1302.386