Software quality and reliability prediction using Dempster -Shafer theory

As software systems are increasingly deployed in mission critical applications, accurate quality and reliability predictions are becoming a necessity. Most accurate prediction models require extensive testing effort, implying increased cost and slowing down the development life cycle. We developed two novel statistical models based on Dempster-Shafer theory, which provide accurate predictions from relatively small data sets of direct and indirect software reliability and quality predictors. The models are flexible enough to incorporate information generated throughout the development life-cycle to improve the prediction accuracy.;Our first contribution is an original algorithm for building Dempster-Shafer Belief Networks using prediction logic. This model has been applied to software quality prediction. We demonstrated that the prediction accuracy of Dempster-Shafer Belief Networks is higher than that achieved by logistic regression, discriminant analysis, random forests, as well as the algorithms in two machine learning software packages, See5 and WEKA. The difference in the performance of the Dempster-Shafer Belief Networks over the other methods is statistically significant.;Our second contribution is also based on a practical extension of Dempster-Shafer theory. The major limitation of the Dempsters rule and other known rules of evidence combination is the inability to handle information coming from correlated sources. Motivated by inherently high correlations between early life-cycle predictors of software reliability, we extended Murphy\u27s rule of combination to account for these correlations. When used as a part of the methodology that fuses various software reliability prediction systems, this rule provided more accurate predictions than previously reported methods. In addition, we proposed an algorithm, which defines the upper and lower bounds of the belief function of the combination results. To demonstrate its generality, we successfully applied it in the design of the Online Safety Monitor, which fuses multiple correlated time varying estimations of convergence of neural network learning in an intelligent flight control system

Fusion Approaches to Individual Tree Species Classification Using Multi-Source Remotely Sensed Data

Tree species information plays essential roles in urban ecological management and sustainable development, and thus tree species classification has been an active research topic over the years. This study investigated fusion approaches deployed with Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Random Forest (RF) algorithms to incorporating multispectral imagery (MSI), a very high spatial resolution panchromatic image (PAN), and Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data for five object-based tree species classification in an urban environment. The results demonstrated that 3D structural features contributed more to tree species with broad crowns, such as honey locust and Austrian pine, whereas textural features were more effective in differentiating trees in narrow crowns, such as spruce. Among all the possible classification schemes based on multi-source features in combinations, decision fusion achieved the best overall accuracies (0.86 for SVM and 0.84 for RF), slightly outperforming the feature fusion approach (0.85 for SVM and 0.83 for RF). Both fusion approaches significantly improved tree species classifications produced by MSI (0.7), PAN (0.74), and LiDAR (0.8) individually

Fusion Approaches to Individual Tree Species Classification Using Multi-Source Remotely Sensed Data

Tree species information plays essential roles in urban ecological management and sustainable development, and thus tree species classification has been an active research topic over the years. This study investigated fusion approaches deployed with Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Random Forest (RF) algorithms to incorporating multispectral imagery (MSI), a very high spatial resolution panchromatic image (PAN), and Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data for five object-based tree species classification in an urban environment. The results demonstrated that 3D structural features contributed more to tree species with broad crowns, such as honey locust and Austrian pine, whereas textural features were more effective in differentiating trees in narrow crowns, such as spruce. Among all the possible classification schemes based on multi-source features in combinations, decision fusion achieved the best overall accuracies (0.86 for SVM and 0.84 for RF), slightly outperforming the feature fusion approach (0.85 for SVM and 0.83 for RF). Both fusion approaches significantly improved tree species classifications produced by MSI (0.7), PAN (0.74), and LiDAR (0.8) individually

Automatic verification of road databases using multiple road models

[no abstract

Multi-Source Data Fusion for Cyberattack Detection in Power Systems

Cyberattacks can cause a severe impact on power systems unless detected early. However, accurate and timely detection in critical infrastructure systems presents challenges, e.g., due to zero-day vulnerability exploitations and the cyber-physical nature of the system coupled with the need for high reliability and resilience of the physical system. Conventional rule-based and anomaly-based intrusion detection system (IDS) tools are insufficient for detecting zero-day cyber intrusions in the industrial control system (ICS) networks. Hence, in this work, we show that fusing information from multiple data sources can help identify cyber-induced incidents and reduce false positives. Specifically, we present how to recognize and address the barriers that can prevent the accurate use of multiple data sources for fusion-based detection. We perform multi-source data fusion for training IDS in a cyber-physical power system testbed where we collect cyber and physical side data from multiple sensors emulating real-world data sources that would be found in a utility and synthesizes these into features for algorithms to detect intrusions. Results are presented using the proposed data fusion application to infer False Data and Command injection-based Man-in- The-Middle (MiTM) attacks. Post collection, the data fusion application uses time-synchronized merge and extracts features followed by pre-processing such as imputation and encoding before training supervised, semi-supervised, and unsupervised learning models to evaluate the performance of the IDS. A major finding is the improvement of detection accuracy by fusion of features from cyber, security, and physical domains. Additionally, we observed the co-training technique performs at par with supervised learning methods when fed with our features

Synergies between machine learning and reasoning - An introduction by the Kay R. Amel group

This paper proposes a tentative and original survey of meeting points between Knowledge Representation and Reasoning (KRR) and Machine Learning (ML), two areas which have been developed quite separately in the last four decades. First, some common concerns are identified and discussed such as the types of representation used, the roles of knowledge and data, the lack or the excess of information, or the need for explanations and causal understanding. Then, the survey is organised in seven sections covering most of the territory where KRR and ML meet. We start with a section dealing with prototypical approaches from the literature on learning and reasoning: Inductive Logic Programming, Statistical Relational Learning, and Neurosymbolic AI, where ideas from rule-based reasoning are combined with ML. Then we focus on the use of various forms of background knowledge in learning, ranging from additional regularisation terms in loss functions, to the problem of aligning symbolic and vector space representations, or the use of knowledge graphs for learning. Then, the next section describes how KRR notions may benefit to learning tasks. For instance, constraints can be used as in declarative data mining for influencing the learned patterns; or semantic features are exploited in low-shot learning to compensate for the lack of data; or yet we can take advantage of analogies for learning purposes. Conversely, another section investigates how ML methods may serve KRR goals. For instance, one may learn special kinds of rules such as default rules, fuzzy rules or threshold rules, or special types of information such as constraints, or preferences. The section also covers formal concept analysis and rough sets-based methods. Yet another section reviews various interactions between Automated Reasoning and ML, such as the use of ML methods in SAT solving to make reasoning faster. Then a section deals with works related to model accountability, including explainability and interpretability, fairness and robustness. Finally, a section covers works on handling imperfect or incomplete data, including the problem of learning from uncertain or coarse data, the use of belief functions for regression, a revision-based view of the EM algorithm, the use of possibility theory in statistics, or the learning of imprecise models. This paper thus aims at a better mutual understanding of research in KRR and ML, and how they can cooperate. The paper is completed by an abundant bibliography

Effective Fault Diagnosis in Chemical Plants By Integrating Multiple Methodologies

Ph.DDOCTOR OF PHILOSOPH

Predicting Short-Term Traffic Congestion on Urban Motorway Networks

Traffic congestion is a widely occurring phenomenon caused by increased use of vehicles on roads resulting in slower speeds, longer delays, and increased vehicular queueing in traffic. Every year, over a thousand hours are spent in traffic congestion leading to great cost and time losses. In this thesis, we propose a multimodal data fusion framework for predicting traffic congestion on urban motorway networks. It comprises of three main approaches. The first approach predicts traffic congestion on urban motorway networks using data mining techniques. Two categories of models are considered namely neural networks, and random forest classifiers. The neural network models include the back propagation neural network and deep belief network. The second approach predicts traffic congestion using social media data. Twitter traffic delay tweets are analyzed using sentiment analysis and cluster classification for traffic flow prediction. Lastly, we propose a data fusion framework as the third approach. It comprises of two main techniques. The homogeneous data fusion technique fuses data of same types (quantitative or numeric) estimated using machine learning algorithms. The heterogeneous data fusion technique fuses the quantitative data obtained from the homogeneous data fusion model and the qualitative or categorical data (i.e. traffic tweet information) from twitter data source using Mamdani fuzzy rule inferencing systems. The proposed work has strong practical applicability and can be used by traffic planners and decision makers in traffic congestion monitoring, prediction and route generation under disruption