Is there a Moore's law for quantum computing?

There is a common wisdom according to which many technologies can progress according to some exponential law like the empirical Moore's law that was validated for over half a century with the growth of transistors number in chipsets. As a still in the making technology with a lot of potential promises, quantum computing is supposed to follow the pack and grow inexorably to maturity. The Holy Grail in that domain is a large quantum computer with thousands of errors corrected logical qubits made themselves of thousands, if not more, of physical qubits. These would enable molecular simulations as well as factoring 2048 RSA bit keys among other use cases taken from the intractable classical computing problems book. How far are we from this? Less than 15 years according to many predictions. We will see in this paper that Moore's empirical law cannot easily be translated to an equivalent in quantum computing. Qubits have various figures of merit that won't progress magically thanks to some new manufacturing technique capacity. However, some equivalents of Moore's law may be at play inside and outside the quantum realm like with quantum computers enabling technologies, cryogeny and control electronics. Algorithms, software tools and engineering also play a key role as enablers of quantum computing progress. While much of quantum computing future outcomes depends on qubit fidelities, it is progressing rather slowly, particularly at scale. We will finally see that other figures of merit will come into play and potentially change the landscape like the quality of computed results and the energetics of quantum computing. Although scientific and technological in nature, this inventory has broad business implications, on investment, education and cybersecurity related decision-making processes.Comment: 32 pages, 24 figure

The future of computing beyond Moore's Law.

Moore's Law is a techno-economic model that has enabled the information technology industry to double the performance and functionality of digital electronics roughly every 2 years within a fixed cost, power and area. Advances in silicon lithography have enabled this exponential miniaturization of electronics, but, as transistors reach atomic scale and fabrication costs continue to rise, the classical technological driver that has underpinned Moore's Law for 50 years is failing and is anticipated to flatten by 2025. This article provides an updated view of what a post-exascale system will look like and the challenges ahead, based on our most recent understanding of technology roadmaps. It also discusses the tapering of historical improvements, and how it affects options available to continue scaling of successors to the first exascale machine. Lastly, this article covers the many different opportunities and strategies available to continue computing performance improvements in the absence of historical technology drivers. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Numerical algorithms for high-performance computational science'

Interval model predictive control

6TH INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON ALGORITHMS AND ARCHITECTURES FOR REAL TIME CONTROL (6) (6.2000.PALMA DE MALLORCA. ESPAÑA)Model Predictive Control is one of the most popular control strategy in the process industry. One of the reason for this success can be attributed to the fact that constraints and uncertainties can be handled. There are many techniques based on interval mathematics that are used in a wide range of applications. These interval techniques can mean an important contribution to Model Predictive Control giving algorithms to achieve global optimization and constraint satisfaction

Technology Directions for the 21st Century, volume 1

For several decades, semiconductor device density and performance have been doubling about every 18 months (Moore's Law). With present photolithography techniques, this rate can continue for only about another 10 years. Continued improvement will need to rely on newer technologies. Transition from the current micron range for transistor size to the nanometer range will permit Moore's Law to operate well beyond 10 years. The technologies that will enable this extension include: single-electron transistors; quantum well devices; spin transistors; and nanotechnology and molecular engineering. Continuation of Moore's Law will rely on huge capital investments for manufacture as well as on new technologies. Much will depend on the fortunes of Intel, the premier chip manufacturer, which, in turn, depend on the development of mass-market applications and volume sales for chips of higher and higher density. The technology drivers are seen by different forecasters to include video/multimedia applications, digital signal processing, and business automation. Moore's Law will affect NASA in the areas of communications and space technology by reducing size and power requirements for data processing and data fusion functions to be performed onboard spacecraft. In addition, NASA will have the opportunity to be a pioneering contributor to nanotechnology research without incurring huge expenses

Network strategies for the new economy

In this paper we argue that the pace and scale of development in the information and communication technology industries (ICT) has had and continues to have major effects on the industry economics and competitive dynamics generally. We maintain that the size of changes in demand and supply conditions is forcing companies to make significant changes in the way they conceive and implement their strategies. We decompose the ICT industries into four levels, technology standards, supply chains, physical platforms, and consumer networks. The nature of these technologies and their cost characteristics coupled with higher degrees of knowledge specialisation is impelling companies to radical revisions of their attitudes towards cooperation and co-evolution with suppliers and customers. Where interdependencies between customers are particularly strong, we anticipate the possibility of winner-takes-all strategies. In these circumstances industry risks become very high and there will be significant consequences for competitive markets

Software Education for Changing Computing Technology

Software education has been dominated by procedural-based programming languages such as BASIC, FORTRAN and C, and before that, the assembly languages. The primary reason that this methodology has held such sway in education was that it allowed quick action for the first major users of computers. This approach was the most straight-forward means of utilizing hardware that, over the last 60 years, has gotten faster and more complex through smaller and more densely packed elements. However, traditional advances as described by Moore’s law are now reaching both physical and economic limits. Pure object-oriented programming approaches offer benefits for hardware that is highly parallel and that is of non-traditional design. This work describes the evolution of computational technology, explores features of pure object-oriented languages such as Squeak Smalltalk, and discusses proactive curricula options

How effectively can computers be used skilled tasks of professional librarianship?

Libraries are expensive and research libraries are particularly expensive. Even in the United States, few people can afford good access to primary scientific, medical, legal and scholarly information. Members of major universities have excellent library services. So do people who work in teaching hospitals, or for drug companies or rich law firms. Others have access to information only through the tedious, inefficient system of interlibrary lending. In less affluent countries the situation is worse; even the best universities cannot afford good libraries. Must access to scientific and professional information always be expensive, or is it possible that digital libraries might change this sad situation? The costs of a conventional research library fall into three main categories: facilities (which include buildings), library materials and staff. In digital libraries, the facilities costs are small, since digital libraries avoid the need for expensive buildings. Digital libraries require computers and networks, but these are relatively inexpensive, and the costs to users are shared with other services, such as electronic mail and word processing..

Nature's Way of Making Audacious Space Projects Viable

Building a starship within the next 100 years is an audacious goal. To be successful, we need sustained funding that may be difficult to maintain in the face of economic challenges that are poised to arise during these next 100 years. Our species' civilization has only recently reached the classification as (approximately) Type-I on the Kardashev scale; that is, we have spread out from one small locality to become a global species mastering the energy and resources of an entire planet. In the process we discovered the profound truth that the two-dimensional surface of our world is not flat, but has positive curvature and is closed so that its area and resources are finite. It should come as no surprise to a Type I civilization when its planet's resources dWindle; how could they not? Yet we have gone year by year, government by government, making little investment for the time when civilization becomes violent in the unwelcome contractions that must follow, when we are forced too late into the inevitable choice: to remain and diminish on an unhappy world; or to expand into the only dimension remaining perpendicularly outward from the surface into space. Then some day we may become a Type-II civilization, mastering the resources of an entire solar system. Our species cannot continue as we have on this planet for another 100 years. Doubtless it falls on us today, the very time we intended to start building a starship, to make the late choice. We wished this century to be filled with enlightenment and adventure; it could be an age of desperation and war. What a time to begin an audacious project in space! How will we maintain consistent funding for the next 100 years? Fortunately, saving a civilization, mastering a solar system, and doing other great things like building starships amount to mostly the same set of tasks. Recognizing what we must be about during the next 100 years will make it possible to do them all