Business Sector Profiles for Cambridge, York and Norwich. Historic Cities Project Task 4

The Historic Cities project is examining the potential impacts of transport demand management strategies on several case study 'historic' cities in England. These cities are York, Cambridge and Norwich, all of which have the following characteristics; they are cities which pre-date motorised transport, and thus tend to have city centres dominated by narrow streets; - they are all members of the Historic Towns Forum; - they have a high architectural and historic heritage, and attract many tourists each year; - they have severe congestion and congestion related problems; - the city authorities are faced with the problems of maintaining the environmental quality of the city, while allowing the most efficient use of the transport infrastructure. The Historic Cities project is examining how transport restraint policies, particularly parking, pricing and road-space reallocation, can contribute to the last bullet above. It is examining this via a series of surveys and modelling of the city traffic patterns under different policies. The main 'tasks' (work packages) are as follows; 1 Travel choices; using a stated preference experiment on mode choices from various traffic demand policies; 2 Traffic effects; Modelling of policies in the various cities using network traffic models; 3 Environmental effects; using the outputs from (2) 4 Urban economy effects; using a survey of businesses 5 Public attitudes; using a survey of resident's attitudes and anticipated responses; Task 4 in the Historic Cities project is examining the perceived and predicted effects on the urban economy from four transport instruments that attempt to restrain car use. It is thought that a major barrier to the implementation of these projects is their detrimental impacts on the local economy. This task examines whether this hypothesis is correct by examining the impacts on, and attitudes of, businesses in the case study cities. This paper presents background information on the cities, building up a business profile of each. The data sources are mostly published information, although city specific business databases were analysed to obtain a cross classification of the business profile. This is the first of a series of Working Papers on Task 4. The next Working Paper will outline the survey of firms that was undertaken, its initial results. It will use the business sector profile to determine how generally representative the samples are of the cities business sectors

Transport Modelling During Preparation of General Plans in Big Cities: Reasons and Challenges

Rapidly growing mobility of people in European cities attaches greater importance to the sustainable developmentconcept. The dynamics of European cities are however different. Cites such as Lithuanian, Slovakian and Polishones will rapidly increase traffic flows and car ownership at fast pace. Also in most of Western Europe, even if at lowerrates, private mobility is increasing. In some cities, however, car use and car ownership are finally decreasing, alsothanks to policies implemented. Of course, an increase of traffic flows poses problems in terms of street space, pollutionand liveability of cities. Sustainable integration of all kinds of transport into the urban development process is one ofthe most effective actions in the hands of city planners. The coordination between the planning of residential and businessdevelopment areas and the expansion of public transport and its hierarchical integration is however a difficult butnecessary exercise. Transport modelling tools, in particular, need important advancements to integrate transport andland use in simulations. This article analyses the main challenges in the use of transport models to support the constructionof city plans by means of two case studies of Milan and Vilnius. The analysis deals both with traditional aspects,such as the proper simulation of multimodal choices, the level of detail of zoning, the issues associated to the simulationof traffic management policies. Then, we will focus on two aspects still open: the integration of transport modelling andeconomic assessment or ranking of actions, and the inclusion of land use changes in the modelling

Book Review

To write a book with such a special subject as City Logistics is not an easy venture. But Taniguchi, Thompson, Yamada and van Duin succeeded to submit a scientifically sound report of this subject, where the main stress is centred on the modelling of city logistics. The book shows clearly, that freight transport and especially urban freight transport, which up to now is generally dealt by the road transport system, leads more and more to traffic problems in cities

Traffic Forecasts Ignoring Induced Demand: a Shaky Fundament for Cost-Benefit Analyses

Although the phenomenon of induced traffic has been theorized for more than 60 years and is now widely accepted among transport researchers, the traffic-generating effects of road capacity expansion are still often neglected in transport modelling. Such omission can lead to serious bias in the assessments of environmental impacts as well as the economic viability of proposed road projects, especially in situations where there is a latent demand for more road capacity. This has been illustrated in the present paper by an assessment of travel time savings, environmental impacts and the economic performance of a proposed road project in Copenhagen with and without short-term induced traffic included in the transport model. The available transport model was not able to include long-term induced traffic resulting from changes in land use and in the level of service of public transport. Even though the model calculations included only a part of the induced traffic, the difference in cost-benefit results compared to the model excluding all induced traffic was substantial. The results show lower travel time savings, more adverse environmental impacts and a considerably lower benefit-cost ratio when induced traffic is partly accounted for than when it is ignored. By exaggerating the economic benefits of road capacity increase and underestimating its negative effects, omission of induced traffic can result in overallocation of public money on road construction and correspondingly less focus on other ways of dealing with congestion and environmental problems in urban areas

Traffic forecasts ignoring induced demand:a shaky fundament for cost-benefit analyses

Although the phenomenon of induced traffic has been theorized for more than 60 years and is now widely accepted among transport researchers, the traffic-generating effects of road capacity expansion are still often neglected in transport modelling. Such omission can lead to serious bias in the assessments of environmental impacts as well as the economic viability of proposed road projects, especially in situations where there is a latent demand for more road capacity. This has been illustrated in the present paper by an assessment of travel time savings, environmental impacts and the economic performance of a proposed road project in Copenhagen with and without short-term induced traffic included in the transport model. The available transport model was not able to include long-term induced traffic resulting from changes in land use and in the level of service of public transport. Even though the model calculations included only a part of the induced traffic, the difference in cost-benefit results compared to the model excluding all induced traffic was substantial. The results show lower travel time savings, more adverse environmental impacts and a considerably lower benefit-cost ratio when induced traffic is partly accounted for than when it is ignored. By exaggerating the economic benefits of road capacity increase and underestimating its negative effects, omission of induced traffic can result in overallocation of public money on road construction and correspondingly less focus on other ways of dealing with congestion and environmental problems in urban areas

National Multi-Modal Travel Forecasts. Literature Review: Aggregate Models

This paper reviews the current state-of-the-art in the production of National Multi-Modal Travel Forecasts. The review concentrates on the UK travel market and the various attempts to produce a set of accurate, coherent and credible forecasts. The paper starts by a brief introduction to the topic area. The second section gives a description of the background to the process and the problems involved in producing forecasts. Much of the material and terminology in the section, which covers modelling methodologies, is from Ortúzar and Willumsen (1994). The paper then goes on to review the forecasting methodology used by the Department of Transport (DoT) to produce the periodic National Road Traffic Forecasts (NRTF), which are the most significant set of travel forecasts in the UK. A brief explanation of the methodology will be given. The next section contains details of how other individuals and organisations have used, commented on or attempted to enhance the DoT methodology and forecasts. It will be noted that the DoT forecasts are only concerned with road traffic forecasts, with other modes (rail, air and sea) only impacting on these forecasts when there is a transfer to or from the road transport sector. So the following sections explore the attempts to produce explicit travel and transportation forecasts for these other modes. The final section gathers together a set of issues which are raised by this review and might be considered by the project

National Multi-Modal Travel Forecasts. Literature Review: Aggregate Models

This paper reviews the current state-of-the-art in the production of National Multi-Modal Travel Forecasts. The review concentrates on the UK travel market and the various attempts to produce a set of accurate, coherent and credible forecasts. The paper starts by a brief introduction to the topic area. The second section gives a description of the background to the process and the problems involved in producing forecasts. Much of the material and terminology in the section, which covers modelling methodologies, is from Ortúzar and Willumsen (1994). The paper then goes on to review the forecasting methodology used by the Department of Transport (DoT) to produce the periodic National Road Traffic Forecasts (NRTF), which are the most significant set of travel forecasts in the UK. A brief explanation of the methodology will be given. The next section contains details of how other individuals and organisations have used, commented on or attempted to enhance the DoT methodology and forecasts. It will be noted that the DoT forecasts are only concerned with road traffic forecasts, with other modes (rail, air and sea) only impacting on these forecasts when there is a transfer to or from the road transport sector. So the following sections explore the attempts to produce explicit travel and transportation forecasts for these other modes. The final section gathers together a set of issues which are raised by this review and might be considered by the project

Institutional and organizational features of cross-border cargo traffic in the post-soviet space integration terms. Part I

The article covers the technical, technological, institutional, and organizational barriers of cross-border transportation of cargo. The study uses an institutional approach as a methodological alternative to other approaches. The study touches on institutional and organizational problems of border crossing checkpoints arrangement, the consequences of the application of unified transport documents and the introduction of electronic communication forms. Particular attention is paid to the analysis of demonstrative actions and the daily practice of reducing the time of customs procedures and reducing transaction costs of cross-border cargo traffic. Herewith it is indicated that the most effective way to improve the efficiency of cross-border transportation of cargo suggests simultaneous implementation of technical and institutional innovations. Emphasis is placed on identifying the institutional and organizational features of the international road transportation of cargo, in particular, the problems of the evolution of the guaranteed customs duties payment institute, the permission system in the implementation of cross-border cargo traffic. The fact that the state support of national entrepreneurs requires a mechanism to ensure the parity of Russian and foreign carriers, at least in the field of cargo transportation for state needs, with the involvement of credit resources of government-linked banks is highlighted. It is underlined that the first step towards improving the institutional environment of international road transportation should envisage the elimination of all informal (shadow) relations in this sphere. The article identifies institutional features of cargo transportation in specific areas such as deliveries by road to China through Kazakhstan, and the challenges and prospects for the use and development of transit potential of Kaliningrad Region. The article shows institutional and organizational characteristics of combined transportation in cross-border traffic. The article concludes that the development of cross-border transportation of cargo and the implementation of transport and transit potential of EAEU member states may and should become a powerful source of income for business entities, budgets of all levels and households, as well as the driving force of industrial and technological upgrading and institutional and organizational evolution of economic systems of the countries and integration associations.The article has been prepared with the support of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (Project № 15-06-06939 a «Modelling the cyclical evolution of mutual influence of the national transport system and the state of the markets of goods (services), labor and capital in terms of integration and global instability»)

Application of Trip Generation Models for Urban Transport Planning In a Data Scarce Developing Country City: The Case of Dar es Salaam

With the increase in travel demand and traffic management problems in many developingcountries cities, travel demand forecasting models are being employed increasingly tomake informed decisions about the operational improvements to the existing transportationsystem and the design and performance of future transportation systems. The mainadvantage of using travel demand forecasting models for such purposes is that they arecapable of capturing the interactive effects of different components of the system understudy. However, for some time now there have been concerns about the application oftransport planning models in developing countries. The concerns have been mainly inrelation to the variables, coefficients and models borrowed from developed countries. Thispaper first discusses the characteristics of transport problems in developing cities andprovides a review of trip generation modelling approaches. Then, the discussion extendsfurther to cover available data for urban transport planning and trip generation modelsthat have found application in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. The paper concludes byhighlighting how available data sources and trip generation modelling approach can beimproved to cope with the dynamic conditions in Dar es Salaam

Analisis Sistem Jaringan Transportasi di Kampus UGM

ABSTRAK Gadjah Mada University is situated in the urban agglomeration of Yogyakarta, and the campus is divided by a main busy road, i.e. Kaliurang Street. The university has, therefore, a great problem in traffic management. The aim of this research is to identify the traffic problems, including the road performance, traffic characteristics, public transport, parking, and also the internal policies to manage the traffic flow by the gate system UGM area. Surveys were carried out within the campus, such as geometric, traffic, and parking surveys. Interview surveys were also carried out to know the aspiration of road users. The results indicate that there are some junctions and roundabout in UGM that should be improved, such as geometric improvement. The result of the transport modelling analysis slums that the gate system has a big impact in main road traffic, i.e. Kaliurang Street. The result of simulating and analysing of the scenario shows that opening the gate in Puma Budaya Intersection could divert the traffic into Pancasila Street (UGM Boulevard) and also decrease the degree of saturation at Mirota Intersection. This scenario has also positive impact to minimise traffic conflict at intersection. This conclusion is also supported by interview survey, which shows that 66% of road users are agree to close the gate but only during the off peak periods (in the evening and at night), 22,5% of them are disagree to close, and 11,5% of them are agree to close permanently. The interview of public bus users and non-users shows that the students of UGM, who use buses are about 42%. The main reason of using buses is cheap (62%). The users claim that bus service is less and very less (71%). The non-users claim that buses have disturbed them (91%). The parking interview survey shows that the largest mode is motorcycles. According to the users, the main parking problem is the insufficient space for parking. The standard of parking area could be estimated by following equation: Y = 179,152 + 7,698 x 10 X i , ,R2 = 0,976 , where Y = parking space unit, and XI = the number of lecturers, employees and students. Key words: transportation, transport modelling, traffic, bus, parkin