Optimization of maintenances following proof tests for the final element of a safety-instrumented system

2019 The Authors Safety-instrumented systems (SISs) have been widely installed to prevent accidental events and mitigate their consequences. Mechanical final elements of SISs often become vulnerable with time due to degradations, but the particulars in SIS operations and assessment impede the adaption of state-of-art research results on maintenances into this domain. This paper models the degradation of SIS final element as a stochastic process. Based on the observed information during a proof test, it is essential to determine an optimal maintenance strategy by choosing a preventive maintenance (PM) or corrective maintenance (CM), as well deciding what degree of mitigation of degradation is enough in case of a PM. When the reasonable initiation situation of a PM and the optimal maintenance degree are identified, lifetime cost of the final element can be minimized while keeping satisfying the integrity level requirement for the SIS. A numerical example is introduced to illustrate how the presenting methods are used to examine the effects of maintenance strategies on cost and the average probability of failure on demands (PFDavg) of a SIS. Intervals of the upcoming tests thus can be updated to provide maintenance crews with more clues on cost-effective tests without weakening safety

A review of physics-based models in prognostics: application to gears and bearings of rotating machinery

Health condition monitoring for rotating machinery has been developed for many years due to its potential to reduce the cost of the maintenance operations and increase availability. Covering aspects include sensors, signal processing, health assessment and decision-making. This article focuses on prognostics based on physics-based models. While the majority of the research in health condition monitoring focuses on data-driven techniques, physics-based techniques are particularly important if accuracy is a critical factor and testing is restricted. Moreover, the benefits of both approaches can be combined when data-driven and physics-based techniques are integrated. This article reviews the concept of physics-based models for prognostics. An overview of common failure modes of rotating machinery is provided along with the most relevant degradation mechanisms. The models available to represent these degradation mechanisms and their application for prognostics are discussed. Models that have not been applied to health condition monitoring, for example, wear due to metal–metal contact in hydrodynamic bearings, are also included due to its potential for health condition monitoring. The main contribution of this article is the identification of potential physics-based models for prognostics in rotating machinery

Expert Elicitation for Reliable System Design

This paper reviews the role of expert judgement to support reliability assessments within the systems engineering design process. Generic design processes are described to give the context and a discussion is given about the nature of the reliability assessments required in the different systems engineering phases. It is argued that, as far as meeting reliability requirements is concerned, the whole design process is more akin to a statistical control process than to a straightforward statistical problem of assessing an unknown distribution. This leads to features of the expert judgement problem in the design context which are substantially different from those seen, for example, in risk assessment. In particular, the role of experts in problem structuring and in developing failure mitigation options is much more prominent, and there is a need to take into account the reliability potential for future mitigation measures downstream in the system life cycle. An overview is given of the stakeholders typically involved in large scale systems engineering design projects, and this is used to argue the need for methods that expose potential judgemental biases in order to generate analyses that can be said to provide rational consensus about uncertainties. Finally, a number of key points are developed with the aim of moving toward a framework that provides a holistic method for tracking reliability assessment through the design process.Comment: This paper commented in: [arXiv:0708.0285], [arXiv:0708.0287], [arXiv:0708.0288]. Rejoinder in [arXiv:0708.0293]. Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/088342306000000510 in the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Reliability modelling of redundant safety systems without automatic diagnostics incorporating common cause failures and process demand

Sriramula’s work within the Lloyd’s Register Foundation Centre for Safety and Reliability Engineering at the University of Aberdeen is supported by Lloyd’s Register Foundation. The Foundation helps to protect life and property by supporting engineering-related education, public engagement and the application of re-search.Peer reviewedPostprin

Genetic Algorithm Optimization Model for Determining the Probability of Failure on Demand of the Safety Instrumented System

A more accurate determination for the Probability of Failure on Demand (PFD) of the Safety Instrumented System (SIS) contributes to more SIS realiability, thereby ensuring more safety and lower cost. IEC 61508 and ISA TR.84.02 provide the PFD detemination formulas. However, these formulas suffer from an uncertaity issue due to the inclusion of uncertainty sources, which, including high redundant systems architectures, cannot be assessed, have perfect proof test assumption, and are neglegted in partial stroke testing (PST) of impact on the system PFD. On the other hand, determining the values of PFD variables to achieve the target risk reduction involves daunting efforts and consumes time. This paper proposes a new approach for system PFD determination and PFD variables optimization that contributes to reduce the uncertainty problem. A higher redundant system can be assessed by generalizing the PFD formula into KooN architecture without neglecting the diagnostic coverage factor (DC) and common cause failures (CCF). In order to simulate the proof test effectiveness, the Proof Test Coverage (PTC) factor has been incorporated into the formula. Additionally, the system PFD value has been improved by incorporating PST for the final control element into the formula. The new developed formula is modelled using the Genetic Algorithm (GA) artificial technique. The GA model saves time and effort to examine system PFD and estimate near optimal values for PFD variables. The proposed model has been applicated on SIS design for crude oil test separator using MATLAB. The comparison between the proposed model and PFD formulas provided by IEC 61508 and ISA TR.84.02 showed that the proposed GA model can assess any system structure and simulate industrial reality. Furthermore, the cost and associated implementation testing activities are reduced

Experimental Tests of Particle Flow Calorimetry

Precision physics at future colliders requires highly granular calorimeters to support the Particle Flow Approach for event reconstruction. This article presents a review of about 10 - 15 years of R\&D, mainly conducted within the CALICE collaboration, for this novel type of detector. The performance of large scale prototypes in beam tests validate the technical concept of particle flow calorimeters. The comparison of test beam data with simulation, of e.g.\ hadronic showers, supports full detector studies and gives deeper insight into the structure of hadronic cascades than was possible previously.Comment: 55 pages, 83 figures, to appear in Reviews of Modern physic

A model for availability growth with application to new generation offshore wind farms

A model for availability growth is developed to capture the effect of systemic risk prior to construction of a complex system. The model has been motivated by new generation offshore wind farms where investment decisions need to be taken before test and operational data are available. We develop a generic model to capture the systemic risks arising from innovation in evolutionary system designs. By modelling the impact of major and minor interventions to mitigate weaknesses and to improve the failure and restoration processes of subassemblies, we are able to measure the growth in availability performance of the system. We describe the choices made in modelling our particular industrial setting using an example for a typical UK Round III offshore wind farm. We obtain point estimates of the expected availability having populated the simulated model using appropriate judgemental and empirical data. We show the relative impact of modelling systemic risk on system availability performance in comparison with estimates obtained (Lesley Walls) from typical system availability modelling assumptions used in offshore wind applications. While modelling growth in availability is necessary for meaningful decision support in developing complex systems such as offshore wind farms, we also discuss the relative value of explicitly articulating epistemic uncertainties

A Risk Aspect of Periodic Testing on Pressure Relief Valves

A pressure relief valve (PSV) is a key safety barrier to prevent the catastrophic rupture of pressure equipment in a process plant. The safety function of a PSV is to open and relieve the pressure when the equipment pressure exceeds the predefined set point. To achieve the desired availability of the PSV function, periodic function testing is regularly performed to confirm the correct functioning of a PSV. If a fault of the PSV function is detected by a function test, the PSV is repaired to a functioning state. For this reason, the interval between function tests has a direct influence on the probability of failure on demand (PFD) of the PSV function. On the other hand, unwanted leakage can occur due to human errors made during the preparation prior to a test and the reinstatement after the test. Such leakage is not desired due to the potential for being ignited and causing a major accident, but this aspect is often not considered in the availability assessment of PSVs. Therefore, this paper suggests a multi-phase Markov approach that can estimate the PFD of a PSV as well as the frequency of the leaks induced by the periodic tests. The suggested approach may be suitable for supporting the decision about the test interval for a PSV, considering both reliability and risk effect of extending the function test interval.publishedVersio