Modeling and predicting temporal patterns of web content changes

AbstractThe technologies aimed at Web content discovery, retrieval and management face the compelling need of coping with its highly dynamic nature coupled with complex user interactions. This paper analyzes the temporal patterns of the content changes of three major news websites with the objective of modeling and predicting their dynamics. It has been observed that changes are characterized by a time dependent behavior with large fluctuations and significant differences across hours and days. To explain this behavior, we represent the change patterns as time series. The trend and seasonal components of the observed time series capture the weekly and daily periodicity, whereas the irregular components take into account the remaining fluctuations. Models based on trigonometric polynomials and ARMA components accurately reproduce the dynamics of the empirical change patterns and provide extrapolations into the future to be used for forecasting

Modeling and predicting the popularity of online news based on temporal and content-related features

As the market of globally available online news is large and still growing, there is a strong competition between online publishers in order to reach the largest possible audience. Therefore an intelligent online publishing strategy is of the highest importance to publishers. A prerequisite for being able to optimize any online strategy, is to have trustworthy predictions of how popular new online content may become. This paper presents a novel methodology to model and predict the popularity of online news. We first introduce a new strategy and mathematical model to capture view patterns of online news. After a thorough analysis of such view patterns, we show that well-chosen base functions lead to suitable models, and show how the influence of day versus night on the total view patterns can be taken into account to further increase the accuracy, without leading to more complex models. Second, we turn to the prediction of future popularity, given recently published content. By means of a new real-world dataset, we show that the combination of features related to content, meta-data, and the temporal behavior leads to significantly improved predictions, compared to existing approaches which only consider features based on the historical popularity of the considered articles. Whereas traditionally linear regression is used for the application under study, we show that the more expressive gradient tree boosting method proves beneficial for predicting news popularity

A Dynamic Embedding Model of the Media Landscape

Information about world events is disseminated through a wide variety of news channels, each with specific considerations in the choice of their reporting. Although the multiplicity of these outlets should ensure a variety of viewpoints, recent reports suggest that the rising concentration of media ownership may void this assumption. This observation motivates the study of the impact of ownership on the global media landscape and its influence on the coverage the actual viewer receives. To this end, the selection of reported events has been shown to be informative about the high-level structure of the news ecosystem. However, existing methods only provide a static view into an inherently dynamic system, providing underperforming statistical models and hindering our understanding of the media landscape as a whole. In this work, we present a dynamic embedding method that learns to capture the decision process of individual news sources in their selection of reported events while also enabling the systematic detection of large-scale transformations in the media landscape over prolonged periods of time. In an experiment covering over 580M real-world event mentions, we show our approach to outperform static embedding methods in predictive terms. We demonstrate the potential of the method for news monitoring applications and investigative journalism by shedding light on important changes in programming induced by mergers and acquisitions, policy changes, or network-wide content diffusion. These findings offer evidence of strong content convergence trends inside large broadcasting groups, influencing the news ecosystem in a time of increasing media ownership concentration

Early Prediction of Movie Box Office Success based on Wikipedia Activity Big Data

Use of socially generated "big data" to access information about collective states of the minds in human societies has become a new paradigm in the emerging field of computational social science. A natural application of this would be the prediction of the society's reaction to a new product in the sense of popularity and adoption rate. However, bridging the gap between "real time monitoring" and "early predicting" remains a big challenge. Here we report on an endeavor to build a minimalistic predictive model for the financial success of movies based on collective activity data of online users. We show that the popularity of a movie can be predicted much before its release by measuring and analyzing the activity level of editors and viewers of the corresponding entry to the movie in Wikipedia, the well-known online encyclopedia.Comment: 13 pages, Including Supporting Information, 7 Figures, Download the dataset from: http://wwm.phy.bme.hu/SupplementaryDataS1.zi

Transforming Graph Representations for Statistical Relational Learning

Relational data representations have become an increasingly important topic due to the recent proliferation of network datasets (e.g., social, biological, information networks) and a corresponding increase in the application of statistical relational learning (SRL) algorithms to these domains. In this article, we examine a range of representation issues for graph-based relational data. Since the choice of relational data representation for the nodes, links, and features can dramatically affect the capabilities of SRL algorithms, we survey approaches and opportunities for relational representation transformation designed to improve the performance of these algorithms. This leads us to introduce an intuitive taxonomy for data representation transformations in relational domains that incorporates link transformation and node transformation as symmetric representation tasks. In particular, the transformation tasks for both nodes and links include (i) predicting their existence, (ii) predicting their label or type, (iii) estimating their weight or importance, and (iv) systematically constructing their relevant features. We motivate our taxonomy through detailed examples and use it to survey and compare competing approaches for each of these tasks. We also discuss general conditions for transforming links, nodes, and features. Finally, we highlight challenges that remain to be addressed