5,827 research outputs found
Conflict and Computation on Wikipedia: a Finite-State Machine Analysis of Editor Interactions
What is the boundary between a vigorous argument and a breakdown of
relations? What drives a group of individuals across it? Taking Wikipedia as a
test case, we use a hidden Markov model to approximate the computational
structure and social grammar of more than a decade of cooperation and conflict
among its editors. Across a wide range of pages, we discover a bursty war/peace
structure where the systems can become trapped, sometimes for months, in a
computational subspace associated with significantly higher levels of
conflict-tracking "revert" actions. Distinct patterns of behavior characterize
the lower-conflict subspace, including tit-for-tat reversion. While a fraction
of the transitions between these subspaces are associated with top-down actions
taken by administrators, the effects are weak. Surprisingly, we find no
statistical signal that transitions are associated with the appearance of
particularly anti-social users, and only weak association with significant news
events outside the system. These findings are consistent with transitions being
driven by decentralized processes with no clear locus of control. Models of
belief revision in the presence of a common resource for information-sharing
predict the existence of two distinct phases: a disordered high-conflict phase,
and a frozen phase with spontaneously-broken symmetry. The bistability we
observe empirically may be a consequence of editor turn-over, which drives the
system to a critical point between them.Comment: 23 pages, 3 figures. Matches published version. Code for HMM fitting
available at http://bit.ly/sfihmm ; time series and derived finite state
machines at bit.ly/wiki_hm
Generalized Species Sampling Priors with Latent Beta reinforcements
Many popular Bayesian nonparametric priors can be characterized in terms of
exchangeable species sampling sequences. However, in some applications,
exchangeability may not be appropriate. We introduce a {novel and
probabilistically coherent family of non-exchangeable species sampling
sequences characterized by a tractable predictive probability function with
weights driven by a sequence of independent Beta random variables. We compare
their theoretical clustering properties with those of the Dirichlet Process and
the two parameters Poisson-Dirichlet process. The proposed construction
provides a complete characterization of the joint process, differently from
existing work. We then propose the use of such process as prior distribution in
a hierarchical Bayes modeling framework, and we describe a Markov Chain Monte
Carlo sampler for posterior inference. We evaluate the performance of the prior
and the robustness of the resulting inference in a simulation study, providing
a comparison with popular Dirichlet Processes mixtures and Hidden Markov
Models. Finally, we develop an application to the detection of chromosomal
aberrations in breast cancer by leveraging array CGH data.Comment: For correspondence purposes, Edoardo M. Airoldi's email is
[email protected]; Federico Bassetti's email is
[email protected]; Michele Guindani's email is
[email protected] ; Fabrizo Leisen's email is
[email protected]. To appear in the Journal of the American
Statistical Associatio
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Situating multimodal learning analytics
The digital age has introduced a host of new challenges and opportunities for the learning sciences community. These challenges and opportunities are particularly abundant in multimodal learning analytics (MMLA), a research methodology that aims to extend work from Educational Data Mining (EDM) and Learning Analytics (LA) to multimodal learning environments by treating multimodal data. Recognizing the short-term opportunities and longterm challenges will help develop proof cases and identify grand challenges that will help propel the field forward. To support the field's growth, we use this paper to describe several ways that MMLA can potentially advance learning sciences research and touch upon key challenges that researchers who utilize MMLA have encountered over the past few years
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