Integrated Systems Health Management as an Enabler for Condition Based Maintenance and Autonomic Logistics

Health monitoring systems have demonstrated the ability to detect potential failures in components and predict how long until a critical failure is likely to occur. Implementing these systems on fielded structures, aircraft, or other vehicles is often a struggle to prove cost savings or operational improvements beyond improved safety. A system architecture to identify how the health monitoring systems are integrated into fielded aircraft is developed to assess cost, operations, maintenance, and logistics trade-spaces. The efficiency of a health monitoring system is examined for impacts to the operation of a squadron of cargo aircraft revealing sensitivity to and tolerance for false alarms as a key factor in total system performance. The research focuses on the impacts of system-wide changes to several key metrics: materiel availability, materiel reliability, ownership cost, and mean downtime. Changes to theses system-wide variables include: diagnostic and prognostic error, false alarm sensitivity, supply methods and timing, maintenance manning, and maintenance repair window. Potential cost savings in maintenance and logistics processes are identified as well as increases in operational availability. The result of this research is the development of a tool to conduct trade-space analyses on the effects of health monitoring techniques on system performance and operations and maintenance costs

Expert Elicitation for Reliable System Design

This paper reviews the role of expert judgement to support reliability assessments within the systems engineering design process. Generic design processes are described to give the context and a discussion is given about the nature of the reliability assessments required in the different systems engineering phases. It is argued that, as far as meeting reliability requirements is concerned, the whole design process is more akin to a statistical control process than to a straightforward statistical problem of assessing an unknown distribution. This leads to features of the expert judgement problem in the design context which are substantially different from those seen, for example, in risk assessment. In particular, the role of experts in problem structuring and in developing failure mitigation options is much more prominent, and there is a need to take into account the reliability potential for future mitigation measures downstream in the system life cycle. An overview is given of the stakeholders typically involved in large scale systems engineering design projects, and this is used to argue the need for methods that expose potential judgemental biases in order to generate analyses that can be said to provide rational consensus about uncertainties. Finally, a number of key points are developed with the aim of moving toward a framework that provides a holistic method for tracking reliability assessment through the design process.Comment: This paper commented in: [arXiv:0708.0285], [arXiv:0708.0287], [arXiv:0708.0288]. Rejoinder in [arXiv:0708.0293]. Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/088342306000000510 in the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Maintenance Strategies Design and Assessment Using a Periodic Complexity Approach

People become more dependent on various devices, which do deteriorate over time and their operation becomes more complex. This leads to higher unexpected failure chance, which causes inconvenience, cost, time, and even lives. Therefore, an efficient maintenance strategy that reduces complexity should be established to ensure the system performs economically as designed without interruption. In the current research, a comprehensive novel approach is developed for designing and evaluating maintenance strategies that effectively reduce complexity in a cost efficient way with maximum availability and quality. A proper maintenance strategy application needs a rigorous failure definition. A new complexity based mathematical definition of failure is introduced that is able to model all failure types. A complexity-based metric, complication rate , is introduced to measure functionality degradation and gradual failure. Maintenance reduces the system complexity by system resetting via introducing periodicity. A metric for measuring the amount of periodicity introduced by maintenance strategy is developed. Developing efficient maintenance strategies that improve system performance criteria, requires developing the mathematical relationships between maintenance and quality, availability, and cost. The first relation relating the product quality to maintenance policy is developed using the virtual age concept. The aging intensity function is then deployed to develop the relation between maintenance and availability. The relation between maintenance and cost is formulated by investigating the maintenance effect on each cost element. The final step in maintenance policy design is finding the optimum periodicity level. Two approaches are investigated; weighted sum integrated with AHP and a comfort zones approach. Comfort zones is a new developed physical programming based optimization heuristic that captures designer preferences and limitations without substantial efforts in tweaking or calculating weights. A mining truck case study is presented to explain the application of the developed maintenance design approach and compare its results to the traditional reward renewal theory. It is shown that the developed approach is more capable of designing a maintenance policy that reduces complexity and simultaneously improves some other performance measures. This research explains that considering complexity reduction in maintenance policy design improves system functionality, and it can be achieved by simple industrially applicable approach

Effective Measurement of Reliability of Repairable USAF Systems

The USAF generally does not know the reliability of its fielded repairable systems. The reported metric, Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF), is too lagging to be actionable in the best case, and is not representative of actual system reliability in the worst case. This thesis investigates the statistical techniques for measurement and analysis of the reliability of fielded repairable systems, which are very different than nonrepairables. To frame the investigation, a comparison is made between the generally accepted definitions and metrics and those used across the US Air Force (USAF). Reliability can be analyzed in four context areas: reliability prediction of nonrepairable and repairable items and reliability measurement of nonrepairable and repairable items. This research is focused on the latter. An algorithmic process for effective measurement of reliability of fielded repairable USAF systems, based on recurrent event analysis, is proposed and demonstrated using a non-parametric approach on USAF maintenance data. The approach provides a new capability that can identify even short term changes in system Rate of Occurrence of Failure (ROCOF), which can identify daily or hourly trends across the fleet subsystems. This new approach is compared to USAF calculations of MTBF over the same period

Modeling Preventive Maintenance in Complex Systems

This thesis presents an explicit consideration of the impacts of modeling decisions on the resulting maintenance planning. Incomplete data is common in maintenance planning, but is rarely considered explicitly. Robust optimization aims to minimize the impact of uncertainty--here, in contrast, I show how its impact can be explicitly quantified. Doing so allows decision makers to determine whether it is worthwhile to invest in reducing uncertainty about the system or the effect of maintenance. The thesis consists of two parts. Part I uses a case study to show how incomplete data arises and how the data can be used to derive models of a system. A case study based on the US Navy\u27s DDG-51 class of ships illustrates the approach. Analysis of maintenance effort and cost against time suggests that significant effort is expended on numerous small unscheduled maintenance tasks. Some of these corrective tasks are likely the result of deferring maintenance, and, ultimately decreasing the ship reliability. I use a series of graphical tests to identify the underlying failure characteristics of the ship class. The tests suggest that the class follows a renewal process, and can be modeled as a single unit, at least in terms of predicting system lifetime. Part II considers the impact of uncertainty and modeling decisions on preventive maintenance planning. I review the literature on multi-unit maintenance and provide a conceptual discussion of the impact of deferred maintenance on single and multi-unit systems. The single-unit assumption can be used without significant loss of accuracy when modeling preventive maintenance decisions, but leads to underestimating reliability and hence ultimately performance impacts in multi-unit systems. Next, I consider the two main approaches to modeling maintenance impact, Type I and Type II Kijima models and investigate the impact of maintenance level, maintenance interval, and system quality on system lifetime. I quantify the net present value obtained of the system under different maintenance strategies and show how modeling decisions and uncertainty affect how closely the actual system and maintenance policy approach the maximum net present value. Incorrect assumptions about the impact of maintenance on system aging have the most cost, while assumptions about design quality and maintenance level have significant but smaller impact. In these cases, it is generally better to underestimate quality, and to overestimate maintenance level

Resilience, Reliability, and Recoverability (3Rs)

Recent natural and human-made disasters, mortgage derivatives crises, and the need for stable systems in different areas have renewed interest in the concept of resilience, especially as it relates to complex industrial systems with mechanical failures. This concept in the engineering systems (infrastructure) domain could be interpreted as the probability that system conditions exceed an irrevocable tipping point. But the probability in this subject covers the different areas that different approaches and indicators can evaluate. In this context, reliability engineering is used the reliability (uptime) and recoverability (downtime) indicators (or performance indicators) as the most useful probabilistic tools for performance measurement. Therefore, our research penalty area is the resilience concept in combination with reliability and recoverability. It must be said that the resilience evaluators must be considering a diversity of knowledge sources. In this thesis, the literature review points to several important implications for understanding and applying resilience in the engineering area and The Arctic condition. Indeed, we try to understand the application and interaction of different performance-based resilience concepts. In this way, a collection of the most popular performance-based resilience analysis methods with an engineering perspective is added as a state-of-the-art review. The performance indicators studies reveal that operational conditions significantly affect the components, industry activities, and infrastructures performance in various ways. These influential factors (or heterogeneity) can broadly be studied into two groups: observable and unobservable risk factors in probability analysis of system performance. The covariate-based models (regression), such as proportional hazard models (PHM), and their extent are the most popular methods for quantifying observable and unobservable risk factors. The report is organized as follows: After a brief introduction of resilience, chapters 2,3 priorly provide a comprehensive statistical overview of the reliability and recoverability domain research by using large scientific databases such as Scopus and Web of Science. As the first subsection, a detailed review of publications in the reliability and recoverability assessment of the engineering systems in recent years (since 2015) is provided. The second subsection of these chapters focuses on research done in the Arctic region. The last subsection presents covariate-based reliability and recoverability models. Finally, in chapter 4, the first part presents the concept and definitions of resilience. The literature reviews four main perspectives: resilience in engineering systems, resilience in the Arctic area, the integration of “Resilience, Reliability, and Recoverability (3Rs)”, and performance-based resilience models

Application of RAM to Facility/Laboratory Design

Reliability, Availability, and Maintainability (RAM) studies are extensively used for mission critical systems (e.g., weapons systems) to predict the RAM parameters at the preliminary design phase. A RAM methodology is presented for predicting facility/laboratory inherent availability (i.e., availability that only considers the steady-state effects of design) at the preliminary design phase in support of Department of Energy (DOE) Order 430.1A (Life Cycle Asset Management) and DOE Order 420.1B (Facility Safety). The methodology presented identifies the appropriate system-level reliability and maintainability metrics and discusses how these metrics are used in a fault tree analysis for predicting the facility/laboratory inherent availability. The inherent availability predicted is compared against design criteria to determine if changes to the facility/laboratory preliminary design are necessary to meet the required availability objective in the final design

Modèles de fiabilité et de maintenance prédictive de systèmes sujets à des défaillances interactives

RÉSUMÉ: L’interaction des défaillances est une thématique qui prend une ampleur considérable dans le monde de la recherche industrielle moderne. Les systèmes sont de plus en plus complexes et leurs fonctionnements et défaillances sur le long terme sont sujets à diverses sources d’influence internes et externes. Les actifs physiques en particulier sont soumis à l’impact du temps, de l’environnement et du rythme de leur utilisation. Connaître ces sources d’influence n’est pas suffisant car il importe de comprendre quelles sont les relations qui les lient afin de planifier de façon efficiente la maintenance des actifs. En effet, cette dernière peut s’avérer très couteuse et sa mauvaise planification peut conduire à l’utilisation de systèmes dangereux pouvant engendrer des évènements catastrophiques. La fiabilité est un vaste domaine. Elle propose une large panoplie de modèles mathématiques qui permettent de prédire le fonctionnement et les défaillances des actifs physiques. Ceci dit, les concepts des modèles les plus appliqués à ce jour se basent sur des hypothèses parfois simplistes et occultent bien souvent certaines relations de dépendances qui régissent un système. L’interaction des défaillances dans le cadre des dépendances stochastiques est abordée par de nombreux travaux de recherches. Par contre, la compréhension et l’implémentation de ces travaux demeurent un défi pour les spécialistes en maintenance qui ont besoin de modèles réalistes pour une maintenance préventive efficace. Cette thèse traite de la fiabilité et la maintenance prédictive des actifs physiques en exploitation et sujets à divers modes de défaillance interactifs. Elle établit avant tout l’importance d’accorder une attention particulière à l’interaction des défaillances dans le domaine de la fiabilité et de la maintenance. Dans une revue de littérature, les concepts et les méthodes de modélisation et d’optimisation en fiabilité et en maintenance préventive sont présentés. Les divers types de dépendances dans un système sont discutés. Un cas d’application, à savoir celui des ponceaux en béton, est proposé. Les travaux entrepris par la suite fournissent avant tout un cadre pour la modélisation de la fiabilité incluant l’interaction des défaillances. A cette fin, une étude comparative des modèles existants les plus pertinents est effectuée de points de vue conceptuel, méthodologique et applicatif. Le cadre étant défini, un modèle basé sur les chocs extrêmes et les chaînes de Markov est construit afin de valoriser le caractère séquentiel des défaillances interactives. Cette proposition est améliorée pour prendre en compte la dégradation du système. Une stratégie de maintenance prédictive est conséquemment développée. Toutes ces approches sont appliquées à un ensemble de ponceaux en béton observés sur plusieurs années. Cela permet d’expliquer les dépendances entre l’occurrence de déplacements et l’occurrence de fissures dans une structure. Tous ces concepts et résultats sont finalement discutés afin de déterminer des perspectives réalistes pour une étude approfondie de l’interactivité d’un point de vue fiabiliste et dans un but stratégique pour la planification de la maintenance.----------ABSTRACT: Failure interaction is a subject gaining growing attention in the world of modern industrial research. Systems are becoming increasingly complex. Their life cycles are subject to various internal and external influences. Physical assets in particular are impacted by time, environment and usage. Knowing these sources of influence is not enough. Indeed, it is important to understand the relationships between them in order to plan effectively for the maintenance of assets. Maintenance can be quite expensive. Thus, poor planning can lead to dangerous systems that could cause catastrophic events. Reliability engineering offers a wide range of mathematical models to predict failures. That being said, the concepts of the most widely applied models in the industry are often based on simplistic assumptions and tend to overlook certain dependencies within a system. Failure interaction in the context of stochastic dependencies is largely addressed in the literature. However, understanding and implementing the proposed approaches remains a challenge for maintenance specialists that need realistic models for efficient maintenance planning. This thesis focuses on the reliability and predictive maintenance of physical assets subject to interactive failure modes. First of all, it emphasizes the importance of paying particular attention to failure interaction. In a literature review, the concepts and methods for modeling and optimizing reliability and preventive maintenance are presented. The diverse dependencies in a system are discussed. A case study is proposed, namely concrete culverts. Subsequently, the research provides a framework for modeling reliability that integrates the interaction of failures. To this end, the most relevant models in the literature are comparatively studied from a conceptual, methodological and applicative point of view. In the defined framework, a model based on extreme shocks and Markov processes is built in order to represent the sequential nature of interactive failures. This approach is extended to take into account the natural degradation of a system. A predictive maintenance strategy is consequently developed. All these models are applied to a set of concrete culverts observed over several years. The dependences between the occurrence of displacements and the occurrence of cracks in a structure are explained through these approaches. Finally, these concepts and results are discussed in order to determine realistic perspectives for in-depth studies of the impact of failure interaction on reliability and for strategic maintenance plannin