Modelling transport energy demand : a socio-technical approach

Peer reviewedPostprin

Exploring strategic approaches towards a sustainable transport system

This paper undertakes a ‘backcasting’ analysis exploring strategic approaches for overalsystems sustainability in personal transport. Starting from a robust definition of sustainability for the personal transport sector, the research examines the impact of combinations of transport technologies and changes in travel behaviour in reducing CO2 emissions towards a sustainable level. In doing this a simple equation model is used. This is purposely simple to provide a tool developing understanding by anyone exploring transport’s sustainability challenges. It is concluded that technical measures in isolation are likely to be ineffective and politically problematic. Equally, even substantial modal shift from car to public transport cannot on its own attain the sustainability target. A combined strategy of both technical improvements and demand management addressing trip length, trip generation and modal share can deliver the necessary improvement, although the implementation of such a package remains politically challenging

Indicator model for benchmarking the transition to a low carbon urban mobility system: Application results from three Scandinavian cities

Cities today consume over 80% of the world’s energy and are responsible for 75% of the total GHG emissions. Over 80% of the population in Europe live in Urban areas. The mobility system, being at the heart of urban activities is responsible for the movement of people, goods and services and is responsible for attracting investments into cities. Playing such a key role in urban development, the sector contributed to over 25% of the GHG emissions from urban areas in Europe. The European Union has thus set out specific targets to decarbonize the mobility sector. With the increasing need for the transition to a low carbon mobility system, it has been identified that there is a need for a benchmarking model that is tested on sectoral frontrunners to enable performance evaluation and guide transitions. Being informed by this need, this study aims at the development of a benchmarking model based on the Avoid-Shift-Improve framework for the evaluation of a low carbon mobility system. The model has been developed based on specific measures targeted at addressing behavioural and technological change required in the mobility system to help aid the GHG emission reduction of urban mobility system have been identified. The model has been tested on the three Scandinavian capital cities of Stockholm, Copenhagen and Oslo, considered as sectoral forerunners due to their diverse activities to reduce GHG emissions from the mobility system. The results of the tests show that the model is able to predict the priorities of the city and the resultant low carbon mobility score is correlated positively with GHG emission reductions. The study also highlights the specific areas of improvement for the three cities and the different considerations that go into the selection of specific measures to improve the system

A Strategy For Reducing Emissions Of Greenhouse Gases From Personal Travel In Britain

The presence of 'greenhouse gases' in the atmosphere has a warming effect on the biosphere, making the world habitable for life. Human activities, particularly energy use and deforestation, are increasing the concentration of these gases, and in particular carbon dioxide (CO2). Many climatologists believe that the global temperature is beginning to rise as a result. The intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has recommended that emissions of CO2 be cut by 60 per cent in order to stabilise the atmospheric concentration of this gas and to minimise the resulting disruption to the world's climate. Transport is currently Britain's fastest growing source of carbon dioxide, the principal anthropogenic greenhouse gas. An assessment is made of the relative contributions to CO2 emissions of different forms of travel, and trends in energy use are surveyed. Emissions of CO2 from 'secondary' sources, such as vehicle production, are also examined. A computer model called SPACE is described, which was developed in order to assess CO2 emissions under different policy scenarios up to the year 2025. A 'business as usual' scenario predicts that emissions will rise substantially, mainly as a result of an ongoing rise in road traffic. This contrasts with the Government's stated aim of stabilising emissions of CO2 at the 1990 level by 2000. A modification of this scenario, in which technological improvements to vehicles are vigorously applied, shows a reduced growth in emissions. A third scenario then examines the effect of a combination of technological and demand management policies, and demonstrates a significant reduction in emissions. Scenario 3 adopts what are seen as fairly modest policy measures, making use of their synergistic effect. The main justification for this 'non-radical' approach is public and political acceptability. It is, however, recognised that most of the policy measures could be applied more vigorously if required If it is assumed that transport is allotted a less stringent target than other energy-consuming sectors, the reduction in emissions projected in Scenario 3 is consistent with the IPCC goal of atmospheric CO2 stabilisation. Data sets compiled as part of the SPACE model can be made available on request

Mobility and transport policy in Germany and France: time for change and... joint solutions?

This chapter is devoted to mobility in France and Germany. First, key mobility indicators for the two countries are presented. This shows that private motorised transport still dominates in both France and Germany. Despite many negative effects on the climate, but also on health and quality of life, no far-reaching measures have been adopted. Hopes are pinned on technological progress and the integration of electromobility. However, this will not solve the shortage of land in cities or the car-dependence of many (low-income) households in rural areas in France. Subsequently, an empirical example from Berlin is used to show how financial and time restrictions affect the willingness of car drivers to switch to alternative modes of transport. Financial measures have a greater influence than time-related measures. For the French example, regional disparities and social dependence on the car are considered more closely. Finally, the current policy initiatives of the two countries are presented in order to assess the potentials of the transport transition

Citywide Transportation Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventories: A Review of Selected Methodologies

Outlines the methodological issues in creating transportation emissions inventories and how they affect the results, reviews currently used methodologies, and explores ways to integrate inventories with climate policies to inform reduction strategies

Demand Drivers in the Emerging Market for Low Emission Vehicles in Scotland

Non peer reviewedPostprin

Gestão sustentável e segura de fluxos de passageiros no corredor suburbano Aveiro – Porto

In 2019 the transport sector was responsible for 25.8% of EU-27 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. While urban transport has received much attention from policy makers and the scientific community, intercity passenger transport has not received as much attention. In 2019, intercity trips accounted for 65% of the total kilometres travelled in Portugal and contributed to more than 55% of carbon dioxide (CO₂) and nitrogen oxide (NOᵪ) emissions. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected mobility due to people’s fear of infection and government restrictions and recommendations. The main objectives of this dissertation are to model the supply and demand of passenger transport in the suburban corridor between Aveiro and Porto, determination of the COVID-19 pandemic impact on travelling behaviour and mode choice for different socio-economic levels and travel purposes and estimate the emissions and the impact per passenger before and during the pandemic. An online survey was designed to understand travelling behaviour and preferences and how these factors changed towards the pandemic. Transport was modelled recurring to a logit model based on the utilities of each transport mode, which were calculated considering the mode choice, travel time, and travel cost of each alternative. The output of the transport modelling was the modal split. The impacts considered were CO₂, NOᵪ, PM₂﮳5, PM₁₀, VOC, NMVOC and CO emissions. The emission values were estimated using the fleet characteristics and average speed as input. Results from the survey show a 70% reduction in travel frequency during the pandemic, with teleworking and online classes being the main reasons for this decrease. Before the pandemic, 65% of trips were made by train and 31% by car. During the pandemic, these shares shifted to 37% and 60%, respectively, and 27% of participants stopped travelling. The logit model was revealed to be a helpful tool for transport modelling. However, the network characteristics, availability of transport modes and sample size limited the statistical significance and accuracy of the model. Air pollution costs decreased by about 53% during the pandemic, primarily due to a decrease in travel frequency.Em 2019, o sector dos transportes foi responsável por 25,8% das emissões de gases com efeito de estufa (GEE) da UE-27. Embora os transportes urbanos tenham recebido muita atenção dos decisores políticos e da comunidade científica, o transporte interurbano de passageiros não tem recebido tanta atenção. Em 2019, as viagens em estradas rurais e autoestradas representaram 65% do total de quilómetros percorridos em Portugal e contribuíram para mais de 55% das emissões de dióxido de carbono (CO₂) e óxidos de azoto (NOᵪ). A pandemia COVID-19 afetou negativamente a mobilidade devido ao medo de infeção das pessoas e restrições e recomendações governamentais. Os principais objetivos desta dissertação são modelar a oferta e a procura de transporte de passageiros no corredor suburbano entre Aveiro e Porto, a determinação do impacto da pandemia COVID-19 nos hábitos de deslocações e escolha de modo para diferentes níveis socioeconómicos e propósitos de deslocação e estimar as emissões e o impacto por passageiro por passageiro antes e durante a pandemia. Um inquérito online foi concebido para compreender os hábitos e preferências de transporte, e como estes fatores mudaram durante a pandemia. O transporte foi modelado recorrendo a um modelo logit baseado nas utilidades de cada modo de transporte, que foram calculados considerando a escolha do modo, o tempo de viagem e o custo de viagem de cada alternativa. O produto desta modelação de transportes foi a distribuição modal. Os impactos considerados foram as emissões de CO₂, NOᵪ, PM₂﮳5, PM₁₀, VOC, NMVOC e CO. As emissões foram estimadas utilizando como dados as características da frota e a velocidade média. Os resultados do inquérito mostram uma redução de 70% na frequência de deslocações durante a pandemia, sendo o teletrabalho e as aulas online as principais razões desta diminuição. Antes da pandemia, 65% das viagens eram feitas de comboio e 31% de carro. Durante a pandemia, estas percentagens mudaram para 37% e 60%, respetivamente, e 27% dos participantes deixaram de viajar. O modelo logit foi revelou-se uma ferramenta útil para a modelação de transporte. No entanto, as características da rede, a disponibilidade de modos de transporte e o tamanho da amostra limitaram a significância estatística e a precisão do modelo. Os custos da poluição atmosférica diminuíram cerca de 53% durante a pandemia, principalmente devido à diminuição da frequência de viagem.Mestrado em Engenharia Mecânic

An "acceptable" low carbon scenario for France: Participatory scenario design and economic assessment

The implementation of climate policies is often hindered by a lack of acceptability as well as the lack of long-term vision of stakeholders. Mitigation scenarios exercises allow the debate; however the scenario design process lacks transparency and stakeholders' (and citizens') involvement, which leads to a lack of credibility, legitimacy and ownership of mitigation scenarios. This paper presents a process for the collaborative design of an "acceptable" mitigation scenario through a public dialogue involving fifty stakeholders. Stakeholders selected the mitigation policies and measures they deemed acceptable. They significantly contributed to the development of the scenario methodology as well, by defining its specifications including data transparency, sensitivity analysis and the need to clarify certain types of economic and financial impacts for the evaluation of Factor 4 scenarios. The acceptable policies were integrated into the hybrid CGE model Imaclim-R France. This modeling platform, designed for the dialogue between modelers, stakeholders and experts, evaluates the social, economic and financial impact of climate policies. This attempt at a methodology exemplifies a collaborative scenario design, thereby proving that such a process can be implemented. The scenario based on the measures that stakeholders deemed acceptable reduce CO2 emissions by 68% by 2050 compared to 1990, which is a result close to the target of the Factor 4 (75%). The measures to reduce emissions are beneficial for employment and economic growth, except in the short term. They can also reduce rapidly and permanently the households' budget dedicated to energy services. Finally, the financial assessment of measures is positive throughout the period. This result is a solid foundation on which to build the acceptability of mitigation trajectories. Beyond the scenario, the methodological innovation offers the means to increase the involvement of stakeholders in decision-making.Cet article trouve son origine dans un double constat : le déficit d'acceptabilité des politiques climatiques d'une part et le déficit de crédibilité, de légitimité et d'appropriation des scénarios de réduction d'émission de gaz à effet de serre d'autre part. Pour répondre à ces limites, nous avons élaboré, au travers d'une concertation associant une cinquantaine de parties prenantes et une cinquantaine d'experts sectoriels, un processus de co-construction d'un scénario " acceptable " de réduction des émissions de CO2. Les parties prenantes ont sélectionné les politiques et les mesures qu'ils considèrent comme acceptables. Celles-ci ont également contribué largement à la méthodologie d'élaboration du scénario par la définition d'un cahier des charges qui inclut la nécessaire transparence des données, des tests de sensibilité et la nécessité d'expliciter certains types d'impacts économiques et financiers nécessaires à l'évaluation des trajectoires facteur 4. L'ensemble des politiques considérées comme acceptables est intégré dans le modèle technico-économique Imaclim-R France. Cette plateforme de modélisation adaptée au dialogue entre modélisateurs et partie prenantes ou experts, évalue les impacts sociaux, économiques et financiers de politiques climatiques. Cet exercice de co-construction de scénario fondé sur la concertation alimentant les paramètres d'un modèle technico-économique, fournit une preuve méthodologique par l'exemple qu'un tel processus peut être mis en place. Le scénario reposant sur les politiques et mesures que les parties prenantes considèrent comme acceptables permet de réduire de 68% les émissions de CO2 en 2050 par rapport à 1990, résultat proche de l'objectif de Facteur 4 (soit 75%). Les mesures de réduction des émissions, dont la plus emblématique est la taxe carbone, sont bénéfiques pour l'emploi et la croissance économique, sauf à court terme. Elles permettent en outre de réduire rapidement et durablement le budget des ménages dédié aux services énergétiques. Enfin, le bilan financier agrégé des mesures s'avère positif dès le début de la période. Ce résultat constitue un socle solide sur lequel construire l'acceptabilité des trajectoires Facteur 4