The trilateral nuclear dynamics in South Asia

A Dinâmica Nuclear Trilateral no Sul da Ásia Quando se abordam as questões nucleares no Sul da Ásia, a maioria dos investigadores tem a tendência para se focar somente na Índia e no Paquistão. Apesar de termos que reconhecer que os laços diplomáticos conturbados entre Islamabad e Nova Deli incluem uma problemática dimensão nuclear, factos demonstram que a China tem um papel central nesta dinâmica nuclear regional. De forma a compreender as dinâmicas nucleares entre estes três países, o artigo começa por abordar o enquadramento histórico destes programas de armas nucleares e os imperativos estratégicos subjacentes às suas origens. De seguida analisar-se-á a forma como estes programas se influenciam, formando uma dinâmica nuclear trilateral, com riscos para a estabilidade regional advindos deste ciclo de “ação-reação”.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Les dynamiques globales de recherche de puissance dans la mise en place d'un système de défense antimissile multidimensionnel et global

Les États-Unis développent présentement une multitude de systèmes de défense antimissile -le Patriot, le MEADS, le Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD), le Kinetic Energy lnterceptors (KEl), le Airborne laser (ABL), le THAAD et le Aegis-BMD -qui, une fois intégrés ensemble, formeront le Système de défense antimissile balistique (BMDS). Le BMDS est un système de systèmes (multidimensionnel) qui aura la capacité d'intercepter tous les types de missiles balistiques (portée courte, moyenne, intermédiaire et intercontinentale), et ce dans toutes les phases de vol (initiale, mi-parcours et terminale). En plus de développer leur propre système multidimensionnel, les Américains ont déjà stimulé la prolifération globale des systèmes composant le BMDS dans le but de rendre ce dernier global. D'abord, ils ont assuré la modernisation des nombreux systèmes radars conjoints partout sur la planète et ils vont déployer de nouveaux satellites pour assurer les fonctions du BMDS. Ensuite, ils ont mis en place des coopérations de développement et de production avec de nombreux alliés (Allemagne, Italie, Japon, Israël, etc.). Ceci assurera des bases régionales et globales de développement, de production et de prolifération des systèmes de défense antimissile sur quatre continents. Finalement, les États-Unis se sont déjà lancés dans la vente des systèmes, tel que le système Patriot et le Aegis-BMD. Ils ont déjà vendu ceux-ci à près de vingt pays alliés et amis partout sur la planète. Il est permis de croire que les autres systèmes seront aussi vendus partout sur le globe (dans l'éventualité où ils auront démontré une capacité initiale) et que le nombre de pays acquéreurs de défenses antimissiles continuera d'augmenter.\ud Toutefois, la mise en place d'un BMDS multidimensionnel et la prolifération des défenses antimissiles n'expliquent pas la véritable dynamique globale du BMDS ainsi planifié. L'effet global des défenses antimissiles se retrouve plutôt dans les caractéristiques de conception et l'utilisation qu'on fait de ces systèmes. En effet, la mobilité et l'interopérabilité sont des caractéristiques essentielles du développement des systèmes du BMDS. Ainsi, les pays détenteurs de défense antimissile seront continuellement pressés par le court temps de réaction disponible en cas d'attaque de missile balistique, ce qui les poussera à intercepter sans discrimination tous les missiles lancés vers les autres alliés et amis. Cette troisième caractéristique ajoutera alors l'élément final à la globalité du BMDS. Le BMDS global offrira alors une puissance accrue aux États-Unis, à leurs alliés et amis. Ils pourront alors utiliser le BMDS pour la défense passive ou la défense active de leurs troupes déployées, de leurs territoires et de leurs populations. Ainsi, nous sommes à l'aube de la mise en place d'un BMDS multidimensionnel et global qui augmentera significativement la puissance des États-Unis et de leurs alliés et amis. ______________________________________________________________________________ MOTS-CLÉS DE L’AUTEUR : Défense antimissile, États-Unis, Sécurité internationale, Prolifération

China Maritime Report No. 5: China\u27s Dreadnought? The PLA Navy\u27s Type 055 Cruiser and Its Implications for the Future Maritime Security Environment

China’s naval modernization, a process that has been underway in earnest for three decades, is now hitting its stride. The advent of the Type 055 cruiser firmly places the PLAN among the world’s very top naval services. This study, which draws upon a unique set of Chinese-language writings, offers the first comprehensive look at this new, large surface combatant. It reveals a ship that has a stealthy design, along with a potent and seemingly well-integrated sensor suite. With 112 VLS cells, moreover, China’s new cruiser represents a large magazine capacity increase over legacy surface combatants. Its lethality might also be augmented as new, cutting edge weaponry could later be added to the accommodating design. This vessel, therefore, provides very substantial naval capability to escort Chinese carrier groups, protect Beijing’s long sea lanes, and take Chinese naval diplomacy to an entirely new and daunting level. Even more significant perhaps, the Type 055 will markedly expand the range and firepower of the PLAN and this could substantially impact myriad potential conflict scenarios, from the Indian Ocean to the Korean Peninsula and many in between. This study of Type 055 development, moreover, does yield evidence that Chinese naval strategists are acutely aware of major dilemmas confronting the U.S. Navy surface fleet.https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cmsi-maritime-reports/1004/thumbnail.jp

Navy Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) Program: Background and Issues for Congress

This report discusses the Aegis ballistic missile defense (BMD) program. Under current Missile Defense Agency (MDA) and Navy plans, the number of BMD-capable Navy Aegis ships is schedule to grow from 20 at the end of FY2010 to 38 at the end of FY2015. This report discusses the concerns some have over BMD expansion, as well as BMD funding issues

Sea-Based Ballistic Missile Defense-- Background and Issues for Congress

This report discusses the changing role and finance of sea-based systems in U.S. ballistic missile defense (BMD). Decisions that Congress reaches on this issue could affect U.S. BMD capabilities and funding requirements; the size, capabilities, and operational patterns of the Navy and the other services; and the shipbuilding industrial base

Navy Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) Program: Background and Issues for Congress

This report provides background information and issues for Congress on the Aegis ballistic missile defense (BMD) program. Issues for Congress concerning the Aegis BMD program include whether to approve, reject, or modify MDA and Navy funding requests for the program, and whether to provide MDA or the Navy with additional direction concerning the program. Congress's decisions regarding the Aegis BMD program could substantially affect U.S. BMD capabilities and funding requirements, U.S. Navy ship force levels and operating patterns, and the defense industrial base

Navy Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) Program: Background and Issues for Congress

This report discusses the Aegis ballistic missile defense (BMD) program. Under current Missile Defense Agency (MDA) and Navy plans, the number of BMD-capable Navy Aegis ships is schedule to grow from 20 at the end of FY2010 to 38 at the end of FY2015. This report discusses the concerns some have over BMD expansion, as well as BMD funding issues

Sino-American strategic relations : a perceptual-psychological approach

The rise of China’s economic power and the end of US-Soviet rivalry has highlighted the importance of overall Sino-US relations and has made Sino-US interrelations in terms of security become more sophisticated and complicated. Although there obviously exist a number of issues in the Sino-US strategic relationship, my research takes two case studies for particular analysis. One issue, missile defense (MD), started during the presidency of Bill Clinton, but because of George W. Bush’s tough approach to China has become a critical issue in current Sino-US relations. The Taiwan issue is another crucial case study in my research. Because of limitations of time and length, I will concentrate my analysis on the run-up to the Taiwan straits mini-crisis in 1996 in which intensive interactions and changes in the foreign policies of both sides can be observed. By analyzing these two cases, more can be known about the complex nature of the contemporary Sino-US relationship. The psychological-perceptual approach, which borrows theories and concepts from psychology, has been one of the enduring and influential approaches in studying international relations. However, it is a new perspective for discussing the missile defense issue and the Taiwan crisis in 1996. The circular flow of how the stimulus from the United States affects the perception of China, then its attendant foreign policies towards the United States, which in turn affects the perception of the United States and its consequent foreign policy towards China on both the MD issue and the Taiwan crisis forms the main research framework in my thesis. Moreover, combining the attribution theory from psychology and the security dilemma theory from the traditional Realist paradigm gives us new perspectives in viewing the interactions between the United States and China. The missile defense issue showed that the linkage with the Taiwan issue remains important in changes in perception of the Chinese decision-makers. During the Clinton presidency, the joint effort of China and Russia resulted in the changes in perception of US decision-makers on the missile defense issue and to a large extent, caused the delay in the development of the national missile defense. Then during President Bush presidency, the possible selling of Aegis-equipped naval ships to Taiwan softened the stance of Chinese decision-makers on the MD issue, but the granting of a visa to Taiwanese President Chen caused the Chinese leadership to return to a tough stance on the MD issue. The Taiwan issue is nevertheless an important case in my research and particular focus is given to the background of the 1996 Taiwan straits crisis. The 1992 US arms sales to Taiwan started the process but the 1995 granting of a visa to Taiwanese President Lee was the prime stimulus that reinforced China’s hostile image of US decision-makers, which resulted in the changes in the foreign policies of the Chinese leadership. In turn, the Chinese military tests also shaped the perception of US decision-makers and hence US policies towards the Taiwan straits situation also changed. Decision-makers’ changes in perception and foreign policies led to the formation of the 1996 Taiwan straits crisis in consequence. Judging from my findings, the basic theoretical framework is useful in analyzing the dynamics of both issues, but nevertheless there needs to be some modification to my framework. In particular, my analysis shows that the existence of a stimulus with a “credible threat” is necessary to produce a change in core belief and in perception. Moreover, the two theories of the security dilemma and attribution match rather well with the origin and development of the two issues in certain aspects and hence the combination of the three could produce a more comprehensive analysis