What drives export performance of firms in Eastern and Western Poland?

We use a unique firm-level survey dataset that draws from the EFIGE (European Firms In Global Economy) questionnaire, to unveil differences in factors driving export performance in structurally most diverse areas of Poland. While conventional results about the role of size, foreign ownership and innovation activity are confirmed at the aggregate level, the picture breaks down when Western and Eastern macroregions are extracted. Our results suggest that the common perception of a more developed West (Poland “A”) and a backward East (Poland “B”) might be outdated. Rather, firms in both regions seem to follow distinct strategies and have dissimilar success factors for competing internationally. Interestingly, export performance in the East is found to benefit from family ties in business, but also product innovation and non-price competitiveness. In the West, it is in turn associated mostly with size and foreign ownership. Overall, our results on the one hand add support to the ‘New’ new trade theory and ‘New’ new economic geography’s premises related to the importance of microeconomic factors and, on the other, shed a new light on the pattern of regional development in Poland. We also discuss some implications for policy makers and managers and suggest directions of further research.National Science Centre, grant no. DEC-2011/03/D/HS4/0195

Seismic activity and market efficiency : A case study of 2023 Turkish earthquakes

The occurrence of earthquakes presents a significant challenge, often resulting in high casual-ties and extensive damage. Beyond the immediate humanitarian impact, earthquakes also have far-reaching consequences for financial markets, which is seen as the barometer for economic resilience. In 2023, Türkiye experienced two earthquakes with magnitudes of 7.7 Mw and 7.6 Mw, occurring in close proximity causing a high number of casualties and eco-nomic damage. The literature remains divided on the precise effects of earthquakes on stock markets, with some studies suggesting significant negative impacts, while others find no statistically signifi-cant effects. Against this backdrop, this thesis seeks to investigate the impacts of the 2023 earthquakes on the Turkish stock market. Employing an event study methodology, the analy-sis focuses on sectoral indices and individual stock returns constituting the market index. The findings of this study reveal that while the earthquakes did not yield statistically significant results on the event day, subsequent days witnessed fluctuating effects, with returns fluctu-ating between positive and negative. Consequently, cumulative abnormal returns also failed to demonstrate statistical significance. However, studying at the sectoral level demonstrated a different picture. The results also showed that while many sectors experienced negative impacts initially, the dispersion of these effects throughout the event window was evident. Notably, sectors such as basic ma-terials and non-metal products exhibited statistically significant positive abnormal returns. On the other hand, the insurance sector emerged as particularly vulnerable, bearing statistically significant negative impacts. In conclusion, this thesis underscores the complex interplay between seismic events and financial markets, emphasizing the importance of sectoral analysis in understanding market dynamics during crises. While the overall market response may lack statistical significance, the differential impacts across sectors provide valuable insights for policymakers and inves-tors alike. Also, further research and refinement of methodologies are essential for deepen-ing our understanding of the relationship between earthquakes and financial markets

Understanding and assessing coal mining impacts : a multifaceted study of acid mine drainage on water resources in the Santa Catarina coal region, Southern Brazil

Esta pesquisa explora os complexos processos de contaminação de recursos hídricos pela Drenagem Ácida de Minas (DAM) na região de mineração de carvão do estado de Santa Catarina, Brasil. O objetivo da pesquisa é não somente compreender os processos subjacentes que contribuem para este importante problema ambiental, mas também avaliar criticamente as estratégias atuais de recuperação ambiental e desenvolver modelos eficazes de monitoramento. A investigação inicial é direcionada para entender a eficácia das estratégias atuais de recuperação ambiental implementadas na região. Através do monitoramento da qualidade da água e avaliação do impacto das antigas atividades de mineração nos recursos hídricos locais, o estudo apresenta uma imagem mista. O método de recuperação ambiental foi eficiente na neutralização da acidez da água na maioria dos recursos hídricos superficiais da área. No entanto, não foi eficaz na neutralização do curso d'água a jusante, sugerindo que a qualidade da água continua comprometida em termos de pH e acidez. Esta herança da mineração de carvão na região ressalta a necessidade de mais trabalho para remediar completamente os impactos desta atividade. Este estudo define as bases para as investigações subsequentes, estabelecendo um contexto mais amplo para entender os mecanismos de contaminação e recuperação na região. Com base nesse entendimento, o segundo estudo busca estabelecer o background geoquímico natural dos recursos hídricos superficiais da região afetada. Distinguir entre concentrações de elementos de ocorrência natural e aquelas resultantes de atividades antropogênicas é fundamental para avaliar a extensão da contaminação e a eficácia dos métodos de recuperação. Esta investigação revela que os valores de referência geoquímicos naturais na região desviam dos valores esperados estabelecidos pela legislação brasileira para alguns parâmetros. A formação geológica única e a dinâmica hidrológica da região resultam em concentrações naturalmente mais altas de certos elementos químicos nos corpos d'água, elucidando uma informação crítica para avaliar com precisão os impactos ambientais e informar estratégias de mitigação. O terceiro estudo analisa os impactos da DAM na qualidade da água. Através da análise de parâmetros físico-químicos de amostras de água coletadas de rios e córregos afetados, é avaliada a extensão e a gravidade do impacto da DAM. O estudo revela a gravidade do impacto da DAM, refletida nas notáveis superações das concentrações máximas de elementos em relação aos respectivos valores de background geoquímico. Por exemplo, os níveis máximos de Fe, Mn e Al excederam seus valores de referência em 830, 632 e 31.600 vezes, respectivamente. Isso não apenas destaca os impactos duradouros da mineração de carvão nos recursos hídricos, mas também ressalta a necessidade de monitoramento e avaliação contínuos da qualidade da água dos recursos hídricos da região. O quarto estudo busca desvendar as correlações significativas entre os parâmetros típicos de monitoramento da DAM na região carbonífera de Santa Catarina. Ao investigar o comportamento geoquímico dos elementos na presença de DAM, como pH, potencial redox e concentrações de ferro, manganês e alumínio, várias correlações fortes são descobertas. Essas correlações estão intimamente relacionadas à solubilidade, especiação e mobilidade de metais pesados na água, revelando os mecanismos hidroquímicos relacionados à contaminação por DAM. Com esse entendimento mais aprofundado da interação entre os parâmetros geoquímicos, é desenvolvido um novo modelo de regressão para possibilitar o monitoramento eficaz e contínuo da DAM nas águas superficiais da região. Esse modelo tem potencial para ser uma ferramenta valiosa, podendo fornecer dados em tempo real sobre a qualidade da água e facilitando uma resposta rápida às mudanças na dinâmica da DAM. Além disso, o desenvolvimento desse modelo resulta em uma estratégia de monitoramento mais econômica, uma contribuição para a gestão dos recursos hídricos na região. Em conclusão, esta pesquisa avança nossa compreensão científica dos impactos ambientais das atividades de mineração de carvão na região sul de Santa Catarina, Brasil. Ao elucidar os mecanismos de contaminação por DAM e a eficácia das estratégias de recuperação na mitigação desses impactos, ela destaca a necessidade crucial de monitoramento regular e abrangente dos recursos hídricos em áreas afetadas pela mineração. Apesar das melhorias na qualidade dos recursos hídricos superficiais devido aos esforços de recuperação, a pesquisa ressalta a necessidade de ações adicionais para amenizar os impactos da DAM nos recursos hídricos. Além disso, a pesquisa enfatiza a importância de compreender o contexto geoquímico local para uma avaliação mais precisa da extensão e gravidade dos impactos da DAM. Os insights obtidos desta pesquisa não apenas têm relevância para a região de Santa Catarina, mas também para outras áreas que lidam com as consequências ambientais das atividades de mineração de carvão. Espera-se que as descobertas desta pesquisa estimulem mais investigações científicas nessa área crucial e informem abordagens mais eficazes para a recuperação ambiental. A jornada para um futuro sustentável para a região de mineração de carvão de Santa Catarina é longa e desafiadora e que só será alcançada por meio de pesquisa contínua e compromisso de todos os entes envolvido neste processo.This research delves into the complex processes of water resource contamination by Acid Mine Drainage (AMD) in the coal mining regions of Santa Catarina, Brazil. The objective of the research is not only to understand and communicate the underlying processes contributing to this pressing environmental issue, but also to evaluate current environmental reclamation strategies and develop effective monitoring models. The initial investigation is targeted towards understanding the efficacy of current environmental reclamation strategies implemented in the region. Through water quality monitoring and gauging the impact of past mining activities on local water resources, the study paints a mixed picture. The environmental reclaiming method was efficient in neutralizing water acidity in most of the surface water resources of the area. However, it was not effective in neutralizing the downstream water course, suggesting that the water quality remains compromised in terms of pH and acidity. This legacy of the region's coal mining history underscores the need for further work to fully remediate the impacts of past mining activities. This finding lays the groundwork for the subsequent investigations, setting a broader context for understanding the mechanisms of contamination and reclamation in the region. Building on this understanding, the second study dives into establishing the natural geochemical baseline of the impacted region. Distinguishing between naturally occurring element concentrations and those resulting from anthropogenic activities is critical in evaluating the extent of contamination and effectiveness of reclamation methods. This investigation reveals that the natural geochemical background values in the region deviate from the expected values established by Brazilian legislation. The unique geological formation and hydrological dynamics of the region result in naturally higher concentrations of certain chemical elements in the water bodies, elucidating a critical piece of information for accurately assessing environmental impacts and informing mitigation strategies. The third study takes a closer look at the impacts of AMD on water quality. Through the analysis of physicochemical parameters of water samples collected from affected rivers and streams, the extent and severity of AMD impact is assessed. The study reveals the severity of AMD's impact, which is reflected in the remarkable exceedances of maximum element concentrations over their respective background values. For example, the maximum levels of Fe, Mn, and Al exceeded their background values by 830, 632, and 31,600 times, respectively. This not only highlights the enduring impacts of coal mining on water resources but also underscores the need for continuous and comprehensive monitoring and assessment of water quality. The fourth study seeks to unravel the significant correlations between typical monitoring parameters of AMD in the coal region of Santa Catarina. Investigating the geochemical behavior of elements in the presence of AMD, such as pH, redox potential, and concentrations of iron, manganese, and aluminum, several strong correlations are uncovered. These correlations are related to the solubility, speciation, and mobility of heavy metals in the water, presenting the hydrochemical mechanisms associated with AMD contamination. With this understanding of the interaction between geochemical parameters, a new regression model is developed to enable continuous monitoring of AMD in the region's surface water. This model can be an effective tool, providing real-time data on water quality and facilitating rapid response to changes in AMD dynamics. In addition, the development of this model presents a more cost-effective monitoring strategy, a contribution to water resource management in the region. In conclusion, this research Thesis advances our scientific understanding of the environmental impacts of coal mining activities in the Santa Catarina region of Brazil. By interpreting the mechanisms of AMD contamination and the effectiveness of reclamation strategies in mitigating these impacts, it shines a spotlight on the critical need for regular monitoring of water resources in mining-impacted areas. Despite improvements in the quality of surface water resources due to reclamation efforts, the research highlights the need for further action to alleviate the impacts of AMD on water resources. Moreover, the research call attention to the importance of understanding the local geochemical background for a more accurate assessment of the extent and severity of AMD impacts. The insights gleaned from this research not only hold relevance for the Santa Catarina region but also for other areas dealing with the environmental consequences of coal mining activities. It is hoped that the results of this research will stimulate further scientific investigations in this area and inform more effective approaches to environmental reclamation. The journey towards a sustainable future for the Santa Catarina coal mining region is long and challenging and will only be achieved through continuous research and the commitment of all those involved in this process

Major Changes in Cyclical Behavior

Various structural, institutional, and policy changes have contributed to the evolution of business cycles, since World War II business expansions have been much longer and contractions much shorter than before. Over nearly 200 years of U.S. history expansions have been long relative to contractions when prices had upward secular trends, and shorter when price trends were down. The rising price trend since the 1930's fits this pattern, although we find no association between the rate of inflation during each business cycle and the relative duration of the phases. Shifts in the industrial composition of employment, in labor-force participation, and in the distribution of personal income have all contributed to the post-1945 moderation of cyclical amplitudes. The variability of economic change was low by historical standards in both 1948-69 and 1969-81, although the inflation rate was much higher and real growth on the average lower after 1969. The recent long-term inflation is attributable mainly to the new persistence of upward price movements in business cycle contractions rather than to more rapid price increases during expansions. But prices have always been sensitive to the degree of severity of business contractions, and they still are. The same is true of short-terminterest rates, although they became more sensitive during 1949-82 than before. Despite the deep changes in the economy, many basic characteristics of the business cycle remain unchanged, notably the timing relationships among groups of leading and lagging indicators.

On the recent slowdown in productivity growth in advanced economies

After two and a half decades of prosperous postwar development, western industrialised countries recently experienced a slowdown of economic growth and productivity advance together with an increase in the rates of inflation and unemployment. The deep recession of 1974/75 has uncovered fundamental structural weaknesses; since then, the advanced economies have not regained the momentum of the 1960s. In this paper, we shall attempt to contribute to a better understanding of this malaise. But as our comparative advantage is not in growth-accounting and as we do not believe that we can single out one or two specific causes, we shall merely aim at forming an idea (perhaps only a rather vague one) which might be further developed into a paradigm or research programme (in Lakatos? sense).

Heart and Minds: A Social Model of U.S. Productivity Growth

macroeconomics, product growth

The companies financial architecture and the market values: is there an interlinkage ? The case of Bucharest Stock Exchange

Nowadays there is a large debate on whether the financial information proves any relevance for the investors´ prediction of the securities market values/stock prices. The paper focuses, besides reviewing some important literature concerning this issue, on an empirical analysis taking into consideration 44 companies listed on Bucharest Stock Exchange based on pool data linear regressions. It is true that the most recent research state that there is an important evidence of a deterioration of the relationship between accounting information and stock prices. Although, the main findings of this paper consist in that there are certain aspects which should be further examined for a more reliable conceptual approach. In addition, it concludes that - even in the case of an emergent capital market as Bucharest Stock Exchange - it can be found mixed evidences to support the importance of financial information in portfolio’ management decisions. In a sense or another, the paper state overall that the financial information matter for market determination of financial assets’ values.capital markets, financial information, financial assets’ valuation

Human mining activity across the ages determines the genetic structure of modern brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) populations.

PublishedJournal ArticleHumans have exploited the earth's metal resources for thousands of years leaving behind a legacy of toxic metal contamination and poor water quality. The southwest of England provides a well-defined example, with a rich history of metal mining dating to the Bronze Age. Mine water washout continues to negatively impact water quality across the region where brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) populations exist in both metal-impacted and relatively clean rivers. We used microsatellites to assess the genetic impact of mining practices on trout populations in this region. Our analyses demonstrated that metal-impacted trout populations have low genetic diversity and have experienced severe population declines. Metal-river trout populations are genetically distinct from clean-river populations, and also from one another, despite being geographically proximate. Using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), we dated the origins of these genetic patterns to periods of intensive mining activity. The historical split of contemporary metal-impacted populations from clean-river fish dated to the Medieval period. Moreover, we observed two distinct genetic populations of trout within a single catchment and dated their divergence to the Industrial Revolution. Our investigation thus provides an evaluation of contemporary population genetics in showing how human-altered landscapes can change the genetic makeup of a species.Environment AgencyWest Country Rivers TrustUniversity of Exete

Predictability and underreaction in industry-level returns: Evidence from commodity markets

This paper finds significant evidence that commodity log price changes can predict industry-level returns for horizons of up to six trading weeks (30 days). We find that for the 1985-2010 period, 40 out of 49 U.S. industries can be predicted by at least one commodity. Our findings are consistent with Hong and Stein’s (1999) “underreaction hypothesis.” Unlike prior literature, we pinpoint the length of underreaction by employing daily data. We provide a comprehensive examination of the return linkages among 25 commodities and 49 industries. This provides a more detailed investigation of underreaction and investor inattention hypotheses than most related literature. Finally, we implement data-mining robust methods to assess the statistical significance of industry returns reactions to commodity log price changes, with precious metals (such as gold) featuring most prominently. While our results indicate modest out-of-sample forecast ability, they confirm evidence that commodity data can predict equity returns more than four trading weeks ahead