Review and Comparison of Intelligent Optimization Modelling Techniques for Energy Forecasting and Condition-Based Maintenance in PV Plants

Within the field of soft computing, intelligent optimization modelling techniques include various major techniques in artificial intelligence. These techniques pretend to generate new business knowledge transforming sets of "raw data" into business value. One of the principal applications of these techniques is related to the design of predictive analytics for the improvement of advanced CBM (condition-based maintenance) strategies and energy production forecasting. These advanced techniques can be used to transform control system data, operational data and maintenance event data to failure diagnostic and prognostic knowledge and, ultimately, to derive expected energy generation. One of the systems where these techniques can be applied with massive potential impact are the legacy monitoring systems existing in solar PV energy generation plants. These systems produce a great amount of data over time, while at the same time they demand an important e ort in order to increase their performance through the use of more accurate predictive analytics to reduce production losses having a direct impact on ROI. How to choose the most suitable techniques to apply is one of the problems to address. This paper presents a review and a comparative analysis of six intelligent optimization modelling techniques, which have been applied on a PV plant case study, using the energy production forecast as the decision variable. The methodology proposed not only pretends to elicit the most accurate solution but also validates the results, in comparison with the di erent outputs for the di erent techniques

Computational model for evaluating the state of geomechanical systems during computing experiments

Purpose. To create a model allowing integration of the diverse features identified for the rock massif behavior by differentiation of various theories and real phenomena into a single information-analytical flow. Methods. System analysis of computational experiments’ results was based on the use of recursive calculation methodology for assessing accuracy of the obtained results with different methods of geometric and physical description applied to individual elements of simulation in the computational domain. Findings. Sample tables were obtained containing the acceptable values of weight characteristics for the various simulated elements in the generalized computational domain. A recursive algorithm for the analysis of the studied objects description’ efficiency in the solution of geomechanics problems by grid numerical methods was formulated and implemented as a computational module. The authors created a system for the assessment of the results obtained via computational experiment at the time of full-scale investigation, which provides a comprehensive analysis of changes in the rock massif state during the operation of the selected support system. The conditions of combining the design characteristics of the simulated support elements functioning in a single load-carrying system under dynamic redistribution of forces were obtained. Originality. The resulting generalized model of mine working and elements affecting its condition allows to determine most accurately the nature of changes in the stress-strain state of geotechnological system regardless of the originally a priori specified limitations. Practical implications. The unified approach can be used in the search for the optimal parameters of implementing combined working supports in the area of mining operations and beyond.Мета. Створити модель, що дозволяє інтегрувати все різноманіття виявлених особливостей поведінки гірського масиву шляхом диференціації різних теорій і реальних явищ у єдиний інформаційно-аналітичний потік. Методика. Системний аналіз результатів обчислювальних експериментів, що побудований на застосуванні рекурсивної методики оцінки розрахункової точності одержуваних результатів при різних методах геометричного й фізичного опису окремих елементів моделювання у розрахунковій області. Результати. Отримано типові таблиці, що містять припустимі величини вагових характеристик для різних елементів, які моделюються в узагальненій розрахунковій області. Сформульовано й реалізовано у вигляді розрахункового модуля рекурсивний алгоритм аналізу ефективності опису досліджуваних об’єктів при рішенні завдань геомеханіки сітковими чисельними методами. Створено систему оцінки одержуваних результатів обчислювального експерименту при проведенні натурних досліджень, яка забезпечує комплексний аналіз зміни стану породного масиву в ході експлуатації обраної системи кріплення. Отримано умови сполучення розрахункових характеристик елементів кріплення, які моделюються й функціонують у єдиній вантажонесучій системі при динамічному перерозподілі зусиль. Наукова новизна. Одержана узагальнена модель гірничої виробки й елементів, що впливають на її стан, гранично точно дозволяє визначати картину зміни напружено-деформованого стану геотехнологічної системи незалежно від початкових апріорі заданих обмежень. Практична значимість. Забезпечується можливість застосування уніфікованого підходу в пошуку оптимальних показників застосування комбінованих кріплень гірничих виробок, які знаходяться поза зоною й у зоні дії очисних робіт.Цель. Создать модель, позволяющую интегрировать все многообразие выявленных особенностей поведения горного массива путем дифференциации различных теорий и реальных явлений в единый информационно-аналитический поток. Методика. Системный анализ результатов вычислительных экспериментов, построенный на применении рекурсивной методики оценки расчетной точности получаемых результатов при различных методах геометрического и физического описания отдельных элементов моделирования в расчетной области. Результаты. Получены типовые таблицы, содержащие допустимые величины весовых характеристик для различных моделируемых элементов в обобщенной расчетной области. Сформулирован и реализован в виде расчетного модуля рекурсивный алгоритм анализа эффективности описания исследуемых объектов при решении задач геомеханики сеточными численными методами. Создана система оценки получаемых результатов вычислительного эксперимента при проведении натурных исследований обеспечивающая комплексный анализ изменения состояния породного массива в ходе эксплуатации выбранной системы крепления. Получены условия совмещения расчетных характеристик моделируемых элементов крепи функционирующих в единой грузонесущей системе при динамическом перераспределении усилий. Научная новизна. Полученная обобщенная модель горной выработки и элементов, влияющих на ее состояние, предельно точно позволяет определять картину изменения напряженно-деформированного состояния геотехнологической системы независимо от первоначально априори заданных ограничений. Практическая значимость. Обеспечивается возможность применения унифицированного подхода в поиске оптимальных показателей применения комбинированных крепей горных выработок находящихся вне зоны и в зоне действия очистных работ.This work would not have been possible without the support of “DTEK Energo” company. The studies were performed within the framework of the state-maintained scientific research topics. The authors express special gratitude to professors of the National Mining University – Volodymyr Bondarenko and Iryna Kovalevska – for the support in conducting the research

Smart Asset Management for Electric Utilities: Big Data and Future

This paper discusses about future challenges in terms of big data and new technologies. Utilities have been collecting data in large amounts but they are hardly utilized because they are huge in amount and also there is uncertainty associated with it. Condition monitoring of assets collects large amounts of data during daily operations. The question arises "How to extract information from large chunk of data?" The concept of "rich data and poor information" is being challenged by big data analytics with advent of machine learning techniques. Along with technological advancements like Internet of Things (IoT), big data analytics will play an important role for electric utilities. In this paper, challenges are answered by pathways and guidelines to make the current asset management practices smarter for the future.Comment: 13 pages, 3 figures, Proceedings of 12th World Congress on Engineering Asset Management (WCEAM) 201

Major challenges in prognostics: study on benchmarking prognostic datasets

Even though prognostics has been defined to be one of the most difficult tasks in Condition Based Maintenance (CBM), many studies have reported promising results in recent years. The nature of the prognostics problem is different from diagnostics with its own challenges. There exist two major approaches to prognostics: data-driven and physics-based models. This paper aims to present the major challenges in both of these approaches by examining a number of published datasets for their suitability for analysis. Data-driven methods require sufficient samples that were run until failure whereas physics-based methods need physics of failure progression

Advanced Techniques for Assets Maintenance Management

16th IFAC Symposium on Information Control Problems in Manufacturing INCOM 2018 Bergamo, Italy, 11–13 June 2018. Edited by Marco Macchi, László Monostori, Roberto PintoThe aim of this paper is to remark the importance of new and advanced techniques supporting decision making in different business processes for maintenance and assets management, as well as the basic need of adopting a certain management framework with a clear processes map and the corresponding IT supporting systems. Framework processes and systems will be the key fundamental enablers for success and for continuous improvement. The suggested framework will help to define and improve business policies and work procedures for the assets operation and maintenance along their life cycle. The following sections present some achievements on this focus, proposing finally possible future lines for a research agenda within this field of assets management

Comparison of Regional and Statewide Impacts on Salinity Mitigation in the Arkansas River Valley

The Arkansas River in Colorado has a major salinity problem, due to agricultural runoff caused by irrigation. It is necessary to see how on-farm net sales, regional and state employment and income levels are affected by alternative aquifer recharge rates. The positive impacts were greatest for the 40% recharge rate.Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Cost-Effectiveness of Water Conservation Measures: A Multi-level Analysis with Policy Implications

Groundwater in Spain, as in other arid or semiarid countries worldwide, has been intensely used for the expansion of irrigated agriculture. This booming development has induced a remarkable socioeconomic development in many rural areas but has produced far-reaching environmental problems. In the Spanish Western La Mancha Aquifer, the excessive, and sometimes illegal, water abstraction for irrigation agriculture has resulted in the Aquifer’s overexploitation and has been responsible of the degradation of the associated wetlands “Tablas de Daimiel”, an internationally reputed, Ramsarnominated aquatic ecosystem. To undertake this analysis, a mathematical programming model has been developed to simulate farmers’ behaviour and their responses to different water policy scenarios. Specifically, the policy simulations selected are: alternative water pricing schemes (uniform volumetric and block-rate water tariffs), water use quota systems and water rights market. Results show that controlling illegal water mining is a necessary condition but it is not sufficient to recover the aquifer. Consequently, other measures will be necessary for an effective water management in this area. Among these, the block-rate water pricing scheme seems the most cost-effective system to reach the goal of aquifer sustainability but will entail important income losses in several farms. Therefore, we cannot conclude that a unique water conservation policy instrument will be the best overall solution for all types of holdings that will respond to efficiency as well as to equity considerations. It seems reasonable to make a combination of the tools proposed, even including additional measures that promote an environmental protection and develop sustainable agricultural systems.Environmental degradation, water policies, cost-effectiveness analysis, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Formalization of the General Model of the Green Economy at the Regional Level

The paper focuses on the study of the problems of the economic and mathematical modeling of the green economy at the regional level. The purpose of the research is the development of economic and mathematical tools for the economic and ecological systems’ modeling at the regional level on the basis of the principles of green economy. The hypothesis of the research is based on the thesis that in the conditions of the exhaustion of natural resources and depletion of natural capital, the technogenic fields, production and consumption waste could be considered as a resource basis for modernization. Such factors’ use leads to the elimination of accumulated environmental damage and substitution of natural resources. The paper describes the approaches to the system modeling problem-solving in order to develop the green economy both in the country and its regions. The urgency of the transition to a green economy is confirmed by the theoretical and practical research on the cyclical development of the socio-eco-economic systems. A number of formalized models and methods for solving the current environmental and economic issues including the economic valuation of accumulated environmental damage, eco-economic assessment of the efficiency of natural resource substitution with resource-substitute are proposed as well as the choice of an optimal set of resources-substitutes taking into account the financial and natural resource constraints. The authors research the typical model of green growth considering the exhaustion of natural resources, technogenic resources deposits involving in economic circulation through the implementation of investment projects on the elimination of accumulated environmental damage. The results could be used in the different regions of Russia for the justification and implementation of investment projects within the framework of the federal target program “Elimination of accumulated environmental damage” in 2015–2026 years.The research has been supported by the Grant of the Russian Foundation for Humanities, Project №14–02–00235а