Metrics to guide a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm for ordinal classification

Ordinal classification or ordinal regression is a classification problem in which the labels have an ordered arrangement between them. Due to this order, alternative performance evaluation metrics are need to be used in order to consider the magnitude of errors. This paper presents a study of the use of a multi-objective optimization approach in the context of ordinal classification. We contribute a study of ordinal classification performance metrics, and propose a new performance metric, the maximum mean absolute error (MMAE). MMAE considers per-class distribution of patterns and the magnitude of the errors, both issues being crucial for ordinal regression problems. In addition, we empirically show that some of the performance metrics are competitive objectives, which justify the use of multi-objective optimization strategies. In our case, a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm optimizes an artificial neural network ordinal model with different pairs of metric combinations, and we conclude that the pair of the mean absolute error (MAE) and the proposed MMAE is the most favourable. A study of the relationship between the metrics of this proposal is performed, and the graphical representation in the two-dimensional space where the search of the evolutionary algorithm takes place is analysed. The results obtained show a good classification performance, opening new lines of research in the evaluation and model selection of ordinal classifiers

Long-term traffic forecasting in optical networks using Machine Learning

Knowledge about future traffic in backbone optical networks may greatly improve a range of tasks that Communications Service Providers (CSPs) have to face. This work proposes a procedure for long-term traffic forecasting in optical networks. We formulate a long-term traffic forecasting problem as an ordinal classification task. Due to the optical networks’ (and other network technologies’) characteristics, traffic forecasting has been realized by predicting future traffic levels rather than the exact traffic volume. We examine different machine learning (ML) algorithms and compare them with time series algorithms methods. To evaluate the developed ML models, we use a quality metric, which considers the network resource usage. Datasets used during research are based on real traffic patterns presented by Internet Exchange Point in Seattle. Our study shows that ML algorithms employed for long-term traffic forecasting problem obtain high values of quality metrics. Additionally, the final choice of the ML algorithm for the forecasting task should depend on CSPs expectations

Long-term traffic forecasting in optical networks using Machine Learning

Knowledge about future traffic in backbone optical networks may greatly improve a range of tasks that Communications Service Providers (CSPs) have to face. This work proposes a procedure for long-term traffic forecasting in optical networks. We formulate a long-term traffic forecasting problem as an ordinal classification task. Due to the optical networks’ (and other network technologies’) characteristics, traffic forecasting has been realized by predicting future traffic levels rather than the exact traffic volume. We examine different machine learning (ML) algorithms and compare them with time series algorithms methods. To evaluate the developed ML models, we use a quality metric, which considers the network resource usage. Datasets used during research are based on real traffic patterns presented by Internet Exchange Point in Seattle. Our study shows that ML algorithms employed for long-term traffic forecasting problem obtain high values of quality metrics. Additionally, the final choice of the ML algorithm for the forecasting task should depend on CSPs expectations

An ordinal CNN approach for the assessment of neurological damage in Parkinson’s disease patients

3D image scans are an assessment tool for neurological damage in Parkinson’s disease (PD) patients. This diagnosis process can be automatized to help medical staff through Decision Support Systems (DSSs), and Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) are good candidates, because they are effective when applied to spatial data. This paper proposes a 3D CNN ordinal model for assessing the level or neurological damage in PD patients. Given that CNNs need large datasets to achieve acceptable performance, a data augmentation method is adapted to work with spatial data. We consider the Ordinal Graph-based Oversampling via Shortest Paths (OGO-SP) method, which applies a gamma probability distribution for inter-class data generation. A modification of OGO-SP is proposed, the OGO-SP- algorithm, which applies the beta distribution for generating synthetic samples in the inter-class region, a better suited distribution when compared to gamma. The evaluation of the different methods is based on a novel 3D image dataset provided by the Hospital Universitario ‘Reina Sofía’ (Córdoba, Spain). We show how the ordinal methodology improves the performance with respect to the nominal one, and how OGO-SP- yields better performance than OGO-SP

A mixture of experts model for predicting persistent weather patterns

Weather and atmospheric patterns are often persistent. The simplest weather forecasting method is the so-called persistence model, which assumes that the future state of a system will be similar (or equal) to the present state. Machine learning (ML) models are widely used in different weather forecasting applications, but they need to be compared to the persistence model to analyse whether they provide a competitive solution to the problem at hand. In this paper, we devise a new model for predicting low-visibility in airports using the concepts of mixture of experts. Visibility level is coded as two different ordered categorical variables: Cloud height and runway visual height. The underlying system in this application is stagnant approximately in 90% of the cases, and standard ML models fail to improve on the performance of the persistence model. Because of this, instead of trying to simply beat the persistence model using ML, we use this persistence as a baseline and learn an ordinal neural network model that refines its results by focusing on learning weather fluctuations. The results show that the proposal outperforms persistence and other ordinal autoregressive models, especially for longer time horizon predictions and for the runway visual height variable

Machine learning methods for binary and multiclass classification of melanoma thickness From dermoscopic images

Thickness of the melanoma is the most important factor associated with survival in patients with melanoma. It is most commonly reported as a measurement of depth given in millimeters (mm) and computed by means of pathological examination after a biopsy of the suspected lesion. In order to avoid the use of an invasive method in the estimation of the thickness of melanoma before surgery, we propose a computational image analysis system from dermoscopic images. The proposed feature extraction is based on the clinical findings that correlate certain characteristics present in dermoscopic images and tumor depth. Two supervised classification schemes are proposed: a binary classification in which melanomas are classified into thin or thick, and a three-class scheme (thin, intermediate, and thick). The performance of several nominal classification methods, including a recent interpretable method combining logistic regression with artificial neural networks (Logistic regression using Initial variables and Product Units, LIPU), is compared. For the three-class problem, a set of ordinal classification methods (considering ordering relation between the three classes) is included. For the binary case, LIPU outperforms all the other methods with an accuracy of 77.6%, while, for the second scheme, although LIPU reports the highest overall accuracy, the ordinal classification methods achieve a better balance between the performances of all classes

Partial order label decomposition approaches for melanoma diagnosis

Melanoma is a type of cancer that develops from the pigment-containing cells known as melanocytes. Usually occurring on the skin, early detection and diagnosis is strongly related to survival rates. Melanoma recognition is a challenging task that nowadays is performed by well trained dermatologists who may produce varying diagnosis due to the task complexity. This motivates the development of automated diagnosis tools, in spite of the inherent difficulties (intra-class variation, visual similarity between melanoma and non-melanoma lesions, among others). In the present work, we propose a system combining image analysis and machine learning to detect melanoma presence and severity. The severity is assessed in terms of melanoma thickness, which is measured by the Breslow index. Previous works mainly focus on the binary problem of detecting the presence of the melanoma. However, the system proposed in this paper goes a step further by also considering the stage of the lesion in the classification task. To do so, we extract 100 features that consider the shape, colour, pigment network and texture of the benign and malignant lesions. The problem is tackled as a five-class classification problem, where the first class represents benign lesions, and the remaining four classes represent the different stages of the melanoma (via the Breslow index). Based on the problem definition, we identify the learning setting as a partial order problem, in which the patterns belonging to the different melanoma stages present an order relationship, but where there is no order arrangement with respect to the benign lesions. Under this assumption about the class topology, we design several proposals to exploit this structure and improve data preprocessing. In this sense, we experimentally demonstrate that those proposals exploiting the partial order assumption achieve better performance than 12 baseline nominal and ordinal classifiers (including a deep learning model) which do not consider this partial order. To deal with class imbalance, we additionally propose specific over-sampling techniques that consider the structure of the problem for the creation of synthetic patterns. The experimental study is carried out with clinician-curated images from the Interactive Atlas of Dermoscopy, which eases reproducibility of experiments. Concerning the results obtained, in spite of having augmented the complexity of the classification problem with more classes, the performance of our proposals in the binary problem is similar to the one reported in the literature

Partial order label decomposition approaches for melanoma diagnosis

Melanoma is a type of cancer that develops from the pigment-containing cells known as melanocytes. Usually occurring on the skin, early detection and diagnosis is strongly related to survival rates. Melanoma recognition is a challenging task that nowadays is performed by well trained dermatologists who may produce varying diagnosis due to the task complexity. This motivates the development of automated diagnosis tools, in spite of the inherent difficulties (intra-class variation, visual similarity between melanoma and non-melanoma lesions, among others). In the present work, we propose a system combining image analysis and machine learning to detect melanoma presence and severity. The severity is assessed in terms of melanoma thickness, which is measured by the Breslow index. Previous works mainly focus on the binary problem of detecting the presence of the melanoma. However, the system proposed in this paper goes a step further by also considering the stage of the lesion in the classification task. To do so, we extract 100 features that consider the shape, colour, pigment network and texture of the benign and malignant lesions. The problem is tackled as a five-class classification problem, where the first class represents benign lesions, and the remaining four classes represent the different stages of the melanoma (via the Breslow index). Based on the problem definition, we identify the learning setting as a partial order problem, in which the patterns belonging to the different melanoma stages present an order relationship, but where there is no order arrangement with respect to the benign lesions. Under this assumption about the class topology, we design several proposals to exploit this structure and improve data preprocessing. In this sense, we experimentally demonstrate that those proposals exploiting the partial order assumption achieve better performance than 12 baseline nominal and ordinal classifiers (including a deep learning model) which do not consider this partial order. To deal with class imbalance, we additionally propose specific over-sampling techniques that consider the structure of the problem for the creation of synthetic patterns. The experimental study is carried out with clinician-curated images from the Interactive Atlas of Dermoscopy, which eases reproducibility of experiments. Concerning the results obtained, in spite of having augmented the complexity of the classification problem with more classes, the performance of our proposals in the binary problem is similar to the one reported in the literature