CBR and MBR techniques: review for an application in the emergencies domain

The purpose of this document is to provide an in-depth analysis of current reasoning engine practice and the integration strategies of Case Based Reasoning and Model Based Reasoning that will be used in the design and development of the RIMSAT system. RIMSAT (Remote Intelligent Management Support and Training) is a European Commission funded project designed to: a.. Provide an innovative, 'intelligent', knowledge based solution aimed at improving the quality of critical decisions b.. Enhance the competencies and responsiveness of individuals and organisations involved in highly complex, safety critical incidents - irrespective of their location. In other words, RIMSAT aims to design and implement a decision support system that using Case Base Reasoning as well as Model Base Reasoning technology is applied in the management of emergency situations. This document is part of a deliverable for RIMSAT project, and although it has been done in close contact with the requirements of the project, it provides an overview wide enough for providing a state of the art in integration strategies between CBR and MBR technologies.Postprint (published version

Neuro-fuzzy knowledge processing in intelligent learning environments for improved student diagnosis

In this paper, a neural network implementation for a fuzzy logic-based model of the diagnostic process is proposed as a means to achieve accurate student diagnosis and updates of the student model in Intelligent Learning Environments. The neuro-fuzzy synergy allows the diagnostic model to some extent "imitate" teachers in diagnosing students' characteristics, and equips the intelligent learning environment with reasoning capabilities that can be further used to drive pedagogical decisions depending on the student learning style. The neuro-fuzzy implementation helps to encode both structured and non-structured teachers' knowledge: when teachers' reasoning is available and well defined, it can be encoded in the form of fuzzy rules; when teachers' reasoning is not well defined but is available through practical examples illustrating their experience, then the networks can be trained to represent this experience. The proposed approach has been tested in diagnosing aspects of student's learning style in a discovery-learning environment that aims to help students to construct the concepts of vectors in physics and mathematics. The diagnosis outcomes of the model have been compared against the recommendations of a group of five experienced teachers, and the results produced by two alternative soft computing methods. The results of our pilot study show that the neuro-fuzzy model successfully manages the inherent uncertainty of the diagnostic process; especially for marginal cases, i.e. where it is very difficult, even for human tutors, to diagnose and accurately evaluate students by directly synthesizing subjective and, some times, conflicting judgments

Use of COTS functional analysis software as an IVHM design tool for detection and isolation of UAV fuel system faults

This paper presents a new approach to the development of health management solutions which can be applied to both new and legacy platforms during the conceptual design phase. The approach involves the qualitative functional modelling of a system in order to perform an Integrated Vehicle Health Management (IVHM) design – the placement of sensors and the diagnostic rules to be used in interrogating their output. The qualitative functional analysis was chosen as a route for early assessment of failures in complex systems. Functional models of system components are required for capturing the available system knowledge used during various stages of system and IVHM design. MADe™ (Maintenance Aware Design environment), a COTS software tool developed by PHM Technology, was used for the health management design. A model has been built incorporating the failure diagrams of five failure modes for five different components of a UAV fuel system. Thus an inherent health management solution for the system and the optimised sensor set solution have been defined. The automatically generated sensor set solution also contains a diagnostic rule set, which was validated on the fuel rig for different operation modes taking into account the predicted fault detection/isolation and ambiguity group coefficients. It was concluded that when using functional modelling, the IVHM design and the actual system design cannot be done in isolation. The functional approach requires permanent input from the system designer and reliability engineers in order to construct a functional model that will qualitatively represent the real system. In other words, the physical insight should not be isolated from the failure phenomena and the diagnostic analysis tools should be able to adequately capture the experience bases. This approach has been verified on a laboratory bench top test rig which can simulate a range of possible fuel system faults. The rig is fully instrumented in order to allow benchmarking of various sensing solution for fault detection/isolation that were identified using functional analysis

Aided diagnosis of structural pathologies with an expert system

Sustainability and safety are social demands for long-life buildings. Suitable inspection and maintenance tasks on structural elements are needed for keeping buildings safely in service. Any malfunction that causes structural damage could be called pathology by analogy between structural engineering and medicine. Even the easiest evaluation tasks require expensive training periods that may be shortened with a suitable tool. This work presents an expert system (called Doctor House or DH) for diagnosing pathologies of structural elements in buildings. DH differs from other expert systems when it deals with uncertainty in a far easier but still useful way and it is capable of aiding during the initial survey 'in situ', when damage should be detected at a glance. DH is a powerful tool that represents complex knowledge gathered from bibliography and experts. Knowledge codification and uncertainty treatment are the main achievements presented. Finally, DH was tested and validated during real surveys.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

A literature review of expert problem solving using analogy

We consider software project cost estimation from a problem solving perspective. Taking a cognitive psychological approach, we argue that the algorithmic basis for CBR tools is not representative of human problem solving and this mismatch could account for inconsistent results. We describe the fundamentals of problem solving, focusing on experts solving ill-defined problems. This is supplemented by a systematic literature review of empirical studies of expert problem solving of non-trivial problems. We identified twelve studies. These studies suggest that analogical reasoning plays an important role in problem solving, but that CBR tools do not model this in a biologically plausible way. For example, the ability to induce structure and therefore find deeper analogies is widely seen as the hallmark of an expert. However, CBR tools fail to provide support for this type of reasoning for prediction. We conclude this mismatch between experts’ cognitive processes and software tools contributes to the erratic performance of analogy-based prediction

Tools for modelling support and construction of optimization applications

We argue the case for an open systems approach towards modelling and application support. We discuss how the 'usability' and 'skills' analysis naturally leads to a viable strategy for integrating application construction with modelling tools and optimizers. The role of the implementation environment is also seen to be critical in that it is retained as a building block within the resulting system

Continuous Improvement Through Knowledge-Guided Analysis in Experience Feedback

Continuous improvement in industrial processes is increasingly a key element of competitiveness for industrial systems. The management of experience feedback in this framework is designed to build, analyze and facilitate the knowledge sharing among problem solving practitioners of an organization in order to improve processes and products achievement. During Problem Solving Processes, the intellectual investment of experts is often considerable and the opportunities for expert knowledge exploitation are numerous: decision making, problem solving under uncertainty, and expert configuration. In this paper, our contribution relates to the structuring of a cognitive experience feedback framework, which allows a flexible exploitation of expert knowledge during Problem Solving Processes and a reuse such collected experience. To that purpose, the proposed approach uses the general principles of root cause analysis for identifying the root causes of problems or events, the conceptual graphs formalism for the semantic conceptualization of the domain vocabulary and the Transferable Belief Model for the fusion of information from different sources. The underlying formal reasoning mechanisms (logic-based semantics) in conceptual graphs enable intelligent information retrieval for the effective exploitation of lessons learned from past projects. An example will illustrate the application of the proposed approach of experience feedback processes formalization in the transport industry sector

Expert systems and finite element structural analysis - a review

Finite element analysis of many engineering systems is practised more as an art than as a science . It involves high level expertise (analytical as well as heuristic) regarding problem modelling (e .g. problem specification,13; choosing the appropriate type of elements etc .), optical mesh design for achieving the specified accuracy (e .g . initial mesh selection, adaptive mesh refinement), selection of the appropriate type of analysis and solution13; routines and, finally, diagnosis of the finite element solutions . Very often such expertise is highly dispersed and is not available at a single place with a single expert. The design of an expert system, such that the necessary expertise is available to a novice to perform the same job even in the absence of trained experts, becomes an attractive proposition. 13; In this paper, the areas of finite element structural analysis which require experience and decision-making capabilities are explored . A simple expert system, with a feasible knowledge base for problem modelling, optimal mesh design, type of analysis and solution routines, and diagnosis, is outlined. Several efforts in these directions, reported in the open literature, are also reviewed in this paper

Integrated Solution Support System for Water Management

Solving water management problems involves technical, social, economic, political and legal challenges and thus requires an integrated approach involving people from different backgrounds and roles. The integrated approach has been given a prominent role within the European Union¿s Water Framework Directive (WFD). The WFD requires an integrated approach in water management to achieve good ecological status of all water bodies. It consists amongst others of the following main planning stages: describing objectives, assessing present state, identifying gaps between objectives and present state, developing management plan, implementing measures and evaluating their impacts. The directive prescribes broad participation and consultation to achieve its objectives. Besides the obvious desktop software, such an integrated approach can benefit from using a variety of support tools. In addition to tools for specific tasks such as numerical models and questionnaires, knowledge bases on options and process support tools may be utilized. Water stress, defined as the lack of water of appropriate quality is one issue related to, but not specifically addressed by the WFD. However, like in the WFD, a participatory approach could be used to mitigate water stress. Similarly various tools can or need to be used in such a complex process. In the AquaStress Integrated project the Integrated Solution Support System (I3S ¿ I-triple-S) is developed. One of the cornerstones of the approach taken in AquaStress is that organizing available knowledge provides sufficient information to improve the possibility to make a water stress mitigation process truly end-user driven, meaning that dedicated local information is only collected after specific need is expressed by the stakeholders in the process. The novelty of the I3S lies in the combination of such knowledge stored in knowledge-bases, with adaptable workflow management facilities and with specific task-oriented tools ¿ all originating from different sources. This paper describes the I3S

Using Event Calculus to Formalise Policy Specification and Analysis

As the interest in using policy-based approaches for systems management grows, it is becoming increasingly important to develop methods for performing analysis and refinement of policy specifications. Although this is an area that researchers have devoted some attention to, none of the proposed solutions address the issues of analysing specifications that combine authorisation and management policies; analysing policy specifications that contain constraints on the applicability of the policies; and performing a priori analysis of the specification that will both detect the presence of inconsistencies and explain the situations in which the conflict will occur. We present a method for transforming both policy and system behaviour specifications into a formal notation that is based on event calculus. Additionally it describes how this formalism can be used in conjunction with abductive reasoning techniques to perform a priori analysis of policy specifications for the various conflict types identified in the literature. Finally, it presents some initial thoughts on how this notation and analysis technique could be used to perform policy refinement