An integrated model platform for the economic assessment of agricultural policies in the European Union

A number of economic models have been applied to analyse the Common Agricultural Policy. The partial equilibrium models CAPRI, ESIM, AGLINK, AGMEMOD and CAPSIM and the general equilibrium models GLOBE and GTAP are currently integrated in a modelling platform for Agro-Economic Policy Analysis in the premises of the Joint Research Centre in Seville in close collaboration with Directorate- General for Agriculture and Rural Development. Each of the models included has a specific focus, enlarging the capacity for complex policy analysis within this platform. This can be done by comparing the results of different models or by linking them, where several methodological options are available. This paper gives some insights on current applications in the field of model integration for agricultural policy analysis.European Commission, Common Agricultural Policy, economic models, quantitative analysis, Agricultural and Food Policy, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

A framework for integrity assessment of multiscale energy infrastructures

The climate change phenomena represent a global issue that could significantly impact on world economic and social systems. During last decades, several international bodies and institutions (like the IPCC) developed scientific techniques to analyse the causes and effects of these phenomena, their evolution over time and possible future scenarios. According to these studies, in order to face climate change and air pollutant emissions issues several targets have been hypothesized and proposed. In particular, the ones related to the Paris Agreement (COP21) can be mentioned. These goals require, in the mid/long-term, significant changes in the structure of the energy systems at global level, aiming at achieving their substantial decarbonisation through the so-called “energy transition”. The implementation of this transition could be obtained by means of different pathways. In particular, two extreme options can be identified. On one side, a wide electrification of final uses, coupled with power generation from renewables and long-distance transmission through global interconnections. On the other, small-scale energy systems based on electricity, heat and gas produced by renewables sources, characterized by power generation from wind, solar photovoltaic and small hydro and with a relevant role played by storage systems. It can be expected that the future configuration of the global energy systems will be a mix of these extreme solutions. In every case, however, a crucial role will be played by the infrastructures for supplying, transmitting and distributing energy. For this reason, the integrity of these infrastructures – at all spatial levels (transnational gas and oil pipelines, maritime routes, power lines, district heating networks, etc.) – is a key factor for ensuring the long-term energy transition strategies. The integrity measures the capability of a given infrastructure to perform its function according to what is requested and to be properly managed from several points of view, including safety, environmental protection, maintainability, productivity, etc. Therefore, it is a concept more general than “security”, as it is multi-dimensional. Furthermore, the integrity is directly related to the development of infrastructures. The evolution of the current energy systems in the sense of the energy transition needs to plan the infrastructures architecture according to criteria that have to be not only technological, but also able to consider all the possible issues that can threat their integrity. In a long-term perspective, these issues should not be investigated through ex-post analyses, but they should be taken into account as much as possible in the design phase. Starting from this, the main goal of the doctoral project has been the identification of a multiscale approach for assessing the integrity of energy infrastructures. A two-dimensional scheme has been proposed, considering different spatial scales (energy corridors, transmission/distribution infrastructures, local networks) and kind of threats (natural, accidental, intentional) and assessing the impacts on the integrity dimensions (technological, geopolitical, environmental, economic) In particular, five case studies have been considered, covering all the considered spatial scales with respect to different integrity dimensions and threats. They focused on the geopolitical supply security, the resilience of distribution infrastructures, the effects of renewables penetration, the reliability of district heating networks and the impact of innovative vectors on the security. The obtained results showed that this multidimensional approach can be useful in defining guidelines for the integrity assessment and the development of energy infrastructure under a holistic perspective, in order to support the policy decision-making about strategical investments and their prioritization, planning, management, and identification and ranking of criticalities

Half a billion simulations: evolutionary algorithms and distributed computing for calibrating the SimpopLocal geographical model

Multi-agent geographical models integrate very large numbers of spatial interactions. In order to validate those models large amount of computing is necessary for their simulation and calibration. Here a new data processing chain including an automated calibration procedure is experimented on a computational grid using evolutionary algorithms. This is applied for the first time to a geographical model designed to simulate the evolution of an early urban settlement system. The method enables us to reduce the computing time and provides robust results. Using this method, we identify several parameter settings that minimise three objective functions that quantify how closely the model results match a reference pattern. As the values of each parameter in different settings are very close, this estimation considerably reduces the initial possible domain of variation of the parameters. The model is thus a useful tool for further multiple applications on empirical historical situations

Assessment of underlying capacity mechanism studies for Greece

The increased electricity production from variable sources in the EU combined with the overall decline in demand in recent years, have raised concerns about the security of electricity supply, in general, and in particular about generation adequacy and flexibility, prompting some Member States to consider new public interventions, the so-called capacity remuneration mechanisms. This work presents a review of the underlying capacity mechanism studies for Greece based on European best practices to highlight the latest developments and current trends.JRC.C.3-Energy Security, Distribution and Market

ERIGrid Holistic Test Description for Validating Cyber-Physical Energy Systems

Smart energy solutions aim to modify and optimise the operation of existing energy infrastructure. Such cyber-physical technology must be mature before deployment to the actual infrastructure, and competitive solutions will have to be compliant to standards still under development. Achieving this technology readiness and harmonisation requires reproducible experiments and appropriately realistic testing environments. Such testbeds for multi-domain cyber-physical experiments are complex in and of themselves. This work addresses a method for the scoping and design of experiments where both testbed and solution each require detailed expertise. This empirical work first revisited present test description approaches, developed a newdescription method for cyber-physical energy systems testing, and matured it by means of user involvement. The new Holistic Test Description (HTD) method facilitates the conception, deconstruction and reproduction of complex experimental designs in the domains of cyber-physical energy systems. This work develops the background and motivation, offers a guideline and examples to the proposed approach, and summarises experience from three years of its application.This work received funding in the European Community’s Horizon 2020 Program (H2020/2014–2020) under project “ERIGrid” (Grant Agreement No. 654113)

Competitive Benchmarking: An IS Research Approach to Address Wicked Problems with Big Data and Analytics

Wicked problems like sustainable energy and financial market stability are societal challenges that arise from complex socio-technical systems in which numerous social, economic, political, and technical factors interact. Understanding and mitigating them requires research methods that scale beyond the traditional areas of inquiry of Information Systems (IS) “individuals, organizations, and markets” and that deliver solutions in addition to insights. We describe an approach to address these challenges through Competitive Benchmarking (CB), a novel research method that helps interdisciplinary research communities to tackle complex challenges of societal scale by using different types of data from a variety of sources such as usage data from customers, production patterns from producers, public policy and regulatory constraints, etc. for a given instantiation. Further, the CB platform generates data that can be used to improve operational strategies and judge the effectiveness of regulatory regimes and policies. We describe our experience applying CB to the sustainable energy challenge in the Power Trading Agent Competition (Power TAC) in which more than a dozen research groups from around the world jointly devise, benchmark, and improve IS-based solutions