My Software has a Vulnerability, should I worry?

(U.S) Rule-based policies to mitigate software risk suggest to use the CVSS score to measure the individual vulnerability risk and act accordingly: an HIGH CVSS score according to the NVD (National (U.S.) Vulnerability Database) is therefore translated into a "Yes". A key issue is whether such rule is economically sensible, in particular if reported vulnerabilities have been actually exploited in the wild, and whether the risk score do actually match the risk of actual exploitation. We compare the NVD dataset with two additional datasets, the EDB for the white market of vulnerabilities (such as those present in Metasploit), and the EKITS for the exploits traded in the black market. We benchmark them against Symantec's threat explorer dataset (SYM) of actual exploit in the wild. We analyze the whole spectrum of CVSS submetrics and use these characteristics to perform a case-controlled analysis of CVSS scores (similar to those used to link lung cancer and smoking) to test its reliability as a risk factor for actual exploitation. We conclude that (a) fixing just because a high CVSS score in NVD only yields negligible risk reduction, (b) the additional existence of proof of concepts exploits (e.g. in EDB) may yield some additional but not large risk reduction, (c) fixing in response to presence in black markets yields the equivalent risk reduction of wearing safety belt in cars (you might also die but still..). On the negative side, our study shows that as industry we miss a metric with high specificity (ruling out vulns for which we shouldn't worry). In order to address the feedback from BlackHat 2013's audience, the final revision (V3) provides additional data in Appendix A detailing how the control variables in the study affect the results.Comment: 12 pages, 4 figure

Economic Factors of Vulnerability Trade and Exploitation

Cybercrime markets support the development and diffusion of new attack technologies, vulnerability exploits, and malware. Whereas the revenue streams of cyber attackers have been studied multiple times in the literature, no quantitative account currently exists on the economics of attack acquisition and deployment. Yet, this understanding is critical to characterize the production of (traded) exploits, the economy that drives it, and its effects on the overall attack scenario. In this paper we provide an empirical investigation of the economics of vulnerability exploitation, and the effects of market factors on likelihood of exploit. Our data is collected first-handedly from a prominent Russian cybercrime market where the trading of the most active attack tools reported by the security industry happens. Our findings reveal that exploits in the underground are priced similarly or above vulnerabilities in legitimate bug-hunting programs, and that the refresh cycle of exploits is slower than currently often assumed. On the other hand, cybercriminals are becoming faster at introducing selected vulnerabilities, and the market is in clear expansion both in terms of players, traded exploits, and exploit pricing. We then evaluate the effects of these market variables on likelihood of attack realization, and find strong evidence of the correlation between market activity and exploit deployment. We discuss implications on vulnerability metrics, economics, and exploit measurement.Comment: 17 pages, 11 figures, 14 table

Estimating ToE Risk Level using CVSS

Security management is about calculated risk and requires continuous evaluation to ensure cost, time and resource effectiveness. Parts of which is to make future-oriented, cost-benefit investments in security. Security investments must adhere to healthy business principles where both security and financial aspects play an important role. Information on the current and potential risk level is essential to successfully trade-off security and financial aspects. Risk level is the combination of the frequency and impact of a potential unwanted event, often referred to as a security threat or misuse. The paper presents a risk level estimation model that derives risk level as a conditional probability over frequency and impact estimates. The frequency and impact estimates are derived from a set of attributes specified in the Common Vulnerability Scoring System (CVSS). The model works on the level of vulnerabilities (just as the CVSS) and is able to compose vulnerabilities into service levels. The service levels define the potential risk levels and are modelled as a Markov process, which are then used to predict the risk level at a particular time

Web development evolution: the assimilation of web engineering security

In today’s e-commerce environment, information is an incredibly valuable asset. Surveys indicate that companies are suffering staggering financial losses due to web security issues. Analyzing the underlying causes of these security breaches shows that a significant proportion of them are caused by straightforward design errors in systems and not by failures in security mechanisms. There is significant research into security mechanisms but there is little research into the integration of these into software design processes, even those processes specifically designed for Web Engineering. Security should be designed into the application development process upfront through an independent flexible methodology that contains customizable components

Web development evolution: the assimilation of web engineering security

In today’s e-commerce environment, information is an incredibly valuable asset. Surveys indicate that companies are suffering staggering financial losses due to web security issues. Analyzing the underlying causes of these security breaches shows that a significant proportion of them are caused by straightforward design errors in systems and not by failures in security mechanisms. There is significant research into security mechanisms but there is little research into the integration of these into software design processes, even those processes specifically designed for Web Engineering. Security should be designed into the application development process upfront through an independent flexible methodology that contains customizable components