Predicting potential distribution and identifying priority areas for conservation of the Yellow-tailed Woolly Monkey (Lagothrix flavicauda) in Peru

Species distribution models (SDMs) provide conservationist with spatial distributions estimations of priority species. Lagothrix flavicauda (Humboldt, 1812), commonly known as the Yellow-tailed Woolly Monkey, is one of the largest primates in the New World. This species is endemic to the montane forests of northern Peru, in the departments of Amazonas, San Martín, Huánuco, Junín, La Libertad, and Loreto at elevation from1,000 to 2,800 m. It is classified as “Critically Endangered” (CR) by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) as well as by Peruvian legislation. Furthermore, it is listed in Appendix I of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES). Research on precise estimates of its potential distribution are scare. Therefore, in this study we modeled the potential distribution area of this species in Peru, the model was generated using the MaxEnt algorithm, along with 80 georeferenced occurrence records and 28 environmental variables. The total distribution (high, moderate, and low) for L. flavicauda is 29,383.3 km2, having 3,480.7 km2 as high potential distribution. In effect, 22.64 % (6,648.49 km2) of the total distribution area of L. flavicauda is found within Natural Protected Areas (NPAs), with the following categories representing the largest areas of distribution: Protected Forests (1,620.41 km2), Regional Conservation Areas (1,976.79 km2), and Private Conservation Areas (1,166.55 km2). After comparing the predicted distribution with the current NPAs system, we identified new priority areas for the conservation of the species. We, therefore, believe that this study will contribute significantly to the conservation of L. flavicauda in Peru

Mapping the Potential Distribution of Oak Wilt (Ceratocystis fagacearum) in East Central and Southeast Minnesota Using Maxent

Forest diseases and pathogens can cause significant damage to an ecosystem. Understanding where they are going to occur and what variables are important in their distribution can stave off the detrimental effects they have on established and at risk ecosystems. With the advancement of spatial analysis and remote sensing technology, these diseases can now be managed through modeling. Modeling allows researchers to determine the extent of the disease, which variables lead to the increase in infection centers, and predict the distribution of the disease. This study used Maxent, a presence-only species distribution model (SDM), to map the potential probability distribution of the invasive forest pathogen oak wilt (Ceratocystis fagacearum) in eastern and southeastern Minnesota. The model related oak wilt occurrence data with environmental variables including climate, topography, land cover, soil, and population density. Results showed areas with the highest probability of oak wilt occur within and surrounding the Minneapolis/St. Paul metropolitan area. The jackknife test of variable importance indicated land cover and soil type as the most important variables contributing to the prediction of the distribution. Multiple methods of analysis showed the model performed better than random at predicting the occurrence of oak wilt. This study shows Maxent has the potential to be an accurate tool in the early detection and management of forest diseases

Predicting the distribution of European Hop Hornbeam: application of MaxEnt algorithm and climatic suitability models

peer reviewedOstrya carpinifolia Scop. (European Hop Hornbeam) is a native tree in Europe as a species of the Betulaceae family. European Hop Hornbeam has a significant value for the European flora, and assessing the effects of climate change on habitats of species is essential for its sustainability. With this point of view, the main aim of the research was to predict the present and future potential distribution of European Hop Hornbeam across Europe. ‘‘IPSL-CM6A-LR’’ climate change model, ninety-six occurrence data, and seven bioclimatic variables were used to predict potential distribution areas with MaxEnt 3.4.1 program. This study applied a change analysis by comparing the present predicted potential distribution of European Hop Hornbeam with the future predicted potential distribution under the 2041–2060 and 2081–2100 SSP2 4.5 and SSP5 8.5 climate change scenarios. Study results indicated that the sum of suitable and highly suitable areas of European Hop Hornbeam is calculated to be 1,136,706 km2 for the current potential distribution. On the contrary, 2,107,187 km2 of highly suitable and suitable areas will be diminished in the worst case by 2100. The most affected bioclimatic variable is BIO 19 (Precipitation of Coldest Quarter), considering the prediction of the species distribution. These findings indicated that the natural ecosystems of the Mediterranean region will shift to northern areas. This study represented a reference for creating a strategy for the protection and conservation of the species in the future

Impact of climate changes in the suitable areas for Coffea arabica L. production in Mozambique: Agroforestry as an alternative management system to strengthen crop sustainability

Climate changes (CC) are a main global phenomenon, with a worldwide impact on natural and agricultural ecosystems. The objective of this study was to analyse the potential impact of future CC on the suitability of areas for rainfed coffee growth, both at the Mozambique national scale and in the Gorongosa Mountain, under Agroforestry (AFS) and Full Sun (FS) management systems. The latter study site is part of the Gorongosa National Park (PNG), one of the most biodiverse places and an outstanding case of successful ecosystem restoration, including the rainforest from Gorongosa Mountain. Additionally, coffee cultivation in PNG under AFS is part of a strategy to strengthen the socio-economic sustainability of the local population, and the recovery of biodiversity in a degraded tropical rainforest ecosystem. Future climate assessments were elaborated through bioclimatic and biophysical variables (Elevation), with Coffea arabica L. being modeled under the current conditions and four global climate models (GCMs) using four Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). Isothermality, annual precipitation, and altitude were the most important variables influencing suitable areas in Mozambique. The analysis revealed that currently suitable areas where C. arabica is grown in Mozambique will be negatively affected under future scenarios (SSP126 to SSP585) in both systems (AFS and FS), although with clear worst impacts for FS. Under AFS, suitable areas will be reduced between about half and two-thirds by 2041–2060, and up to 91% by 2081–2100 (depending on scenarios) at the whole country level. Additionally, in Gorongosa Mountain, almost all scenarios point to a 30% reduction of the suitable area by 2041–2060, reaching 50% by 2081–2100, both in SSP126 and SSP245 scenarios. In sharp contrast, at the whole country level, the FS system is projected to be unsuitable for most of Mozambique, with area losses close to or above two-thirds already in 2021–2040, and greater than 80% by 2061–2080. Under this system, the projections were even more dramatic, pointing to a total absence of adequate areas at Gorongosa Mountain already by 2021–2040. Overall, our study provides clear evidence that the implementation of AFS greatly reduces CC deleterious impacts, being crucial to guarantee the sustainability of the coffee crop in the near future.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Agroforestry as an alternative management system to strengthen crop sustainability

Funding Information: This work was supported by national funds of Camões – Instituto da Cooperação e da Língua (Portugal), Agência Brasileira de Cooperação (Brazil), and Parque Nacional da Gorongosa (Mozambique), through the project GorongosaCafé (TriCafé), as well as through Portuguese national funds from Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, I.P. (FCT), through the grants SFRH/BD/135357/2017 (C. Cassamo), and the Scientific Employment Stimulus - Individual Call (CEEC Individual) - 2021.01107.CEECIND/CP1689/CT0001 (I. Marques), and to the research units UIDB/00239/2020 (CEF), UIDB/00329/2020 (CE3C) and UIDP/04035/2020 (GeoBioTec). Funding from CNPq, Brazil (F. Partelli) is also greatly acknowledged. Funding Information: This work was supported by national funds of Camões – Instituto da Cooperação e da Língua (Portugal), Agência Brasileira de Cooperação (Brazil), and Parque Nacional da Gorongosa (Mozambique), through the project GorongosaCafé (TriCafé), as well as through Portuguese national funds from Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia , I.P. (FCT), through the grants SFRH/BD/135357/2017 (C. Cassamo), and the Scientific Employment Stimulus - Individual Call (CEEC Individual) - 2021.01107.CEECIND/CP1689/CT0001 (I. Marques), and to the research units UIDB/00239/2020 (CEF), UIDB/00329/2020 (CE3C) and UIDP/04035/2020 (GeoBioTec). Funding from CNPq , Brazil (F. Partelli) is also greatly acknowledged. Publisher Copyright: © 2023 The AuthorsClimate changes (CC) are a main global phenomenon, with a worldwide impact on natural and agricultural ecosystems. The objective of this study was to analyse the potential impact of future CC on the suitability of areas for rainfed coffee growth, both at the Mozambique national scale and in the Gorongosa Mountain, under Agroforestry (AFS) and Full Sun (FS) management systems. The latter study site is part of the Gorongosa National Park (PNG), one of the most biodiverse places and an outstanding case of successful ecosystem restoration, including the rainforest from Gorongosa Mountain. Additionally, coffee cultivation in PNG under AFS is part of a strategy to strengthen the socio-economic sustainability of the local population, and the recovery of biodiversity in a degraded tropical rainforest ecosystem. Future climate assessments were elaborated through bioclimatic and biophysical variables (Elevation), with Coffea arabica L. being modeled under the current conditions and four global climate models (GCMs) using four Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). Isothermality, annual precipitation, and altitude were the most important variables influencing suitable areas in Mozambique. The analysis revealed that currently suitable areas where C. arabica is grown in Mozambique will be negatively affected under future scenarios (SSP126 to SSP585) in both systems (AFS and FS), although with clear worst impacts for FS. Under AFS, suitable areas will be reduced between about half and two-thirds by 2041–2060, and up to 91% by 2081–2100 (depending on scenarios) at the whole country level. Additionally, in Gorongosa Mountain, almost all scenarios point to a 30% reduction of the suitable area by 2041–2060, reaching 50% by 2081–2100, both in SSP126 and SSP245 scenarios. In sharp contrast, at the whole country level, the FS system is projected to be unsuitable for most of Mozambique, with area losses close to or above two-thirds already in 2021–2040, and greater than 80% by 2061–2080. Under this system, the projections were even more dramatic, pointing to a total absence of adequate areas at Gorongosa Mountain already by 2021–2040. Overall, our study provides clear evidence that the implementation of AFS greatly reduces CC deleterious impacts, being crucial to guarantee the sustainability of the coffee crop in the near future.publishersversionpublishe

Selección de hábitat en la culebra bastarda (Malpolon Monspessulanus Hermann, 1809) aplicando modelos de mapeo espacio-temporal de enfermedades

El actual escenario de cambio global supone un reto para la conservación tanto de las especies como de sus respectivos ecosistemas. Los modelos de distribución de especies son una herramienta muy valiosa que ha demostrado ser un buen recurso para obtener información sobre la relación entre los factores ambientales y la presencia de una especie, utilizando únicamente registros de presencia y/o ausencia y datos de variables ambientales. El objetivo de este estudio es analizar la distribución de la culebra bastarda (Malpolon monspessulanus) en el Centro de Quintos de Mora utilizando el modelo de mapeo espacio-temporal de enfermedades, un nuevo modelo en el mundo de la ecología. Los resultados obtenidos establecen la precipitación mensual, la presencia de bosque mixto, la máxima pendiente y el tiempo como variables significativas con impacto positivo en la distribución de la especie, y la mínima pendiente, la presencia de bosques de frondosas y los espacios con escasa vegetación como variables con impacto negativo. La influencia de estas variables climáticas y biofísicas del territorio estudiado, junto a la ecología de la especie, han dado lugar a una distribución desigual a lo largo del Centro de Quintos de Mora, con una predisposición de la especie por ocupar los territorios que componen las formaciones montañosas al norte y sur, comparado con el territorio prácticamente llano comprendido entre ambas.The current scenario of global change poses a challenge for the conservation of both species and their respective ecosystems. Species distribution models are a very valuable tool that has proven to be a good resource for obtaining information on the relationship between environmental factors and the presence of a species, using only records of presence and/or absence and data on environmental variables. The objective of this study is to analyze the distribution of the Montpellier’s snake (Malpolon monspessulanus) in the Quintos de Mora Center using the spatio-temporal disease mapping model, a new model in the world of ecology. The results obtained establish monthly precipitation, presence of mixed forest, maximum slope and time as significant variables with positive impact on the distribution of the species, and minimum slope, presence of hardwood forests and sparsely vegetated areas as variables with negative impact. The influence of these climatic and biophysical variables of the territory studied, together with the ecology of the species, have resulted in an uneven distribution throughout the Quintos de Mora Center, with a predisposition of the species to occupy the territories that make up the mountainous formations to the north and south, compared to the practically flat territory between the two.Máster Universitario en Restauración de Ecosistemas (M194

Understanding the Ecological Role, Population Dynamics, and Geographic Distribution of \u3ci\u3eManihot Walkerae\u3c/i\u3e

Walker’s Manihot, Manihot walkerae Croizat (Euphorbiaceae), is an endangered plant that is endemic to the Tamaulipan thornscrub ecoregion. Understanding M. walkerae’s geographic distribution, populations, and species interactions can provide essential information for the development of sound conservation strategies. To this aim, I asked the following questions: 1) What is the potential geographic distribution for M. walkerae? and, will it be affected by climate change? 2) Using global and regional extinction risk assessments, what is the extinction risk category for M. walkerae after incorporating species distribution models? 3) What do natural history observations reveal about M. walkerae’s population composition, and insect interactions? These questions were answered using species distribution modeling, both IUCN and Mexican Risk Assessment methods, and natural history observations. The results of this work could be used to establish national and international strategies to conserve this endangered species

Impacto das alterações climáticas, expansão humana e expansão do setor eólico na área de distribuição de aves no Nordeste do Brasil

Relatório de estágio de mestrado, Ecologia e Gestão Ambiental, Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências, 2019A biodiversidade encontra-se ameaçada pelas atividades humanas e pelas alterações climáticas. Muitos países têm reunido esforços no combate às alterações climáticas, nomeadamente no aumento da utilização de energias renováveis. A energia eólica é uma das fontes de energia renovável com maior crescimento mundial, mas tem também impactos negativos sobre a vida selvagem. Para além da mortalidade por colisão com aerogeradores, a perda de habitat é também reconhecida como um impacto negativo do Setor Eólico, mas permanece pouco estudado. Neste trabalho estudou-se o impacto da expansão do Setor Eólico, da expansão das áreas urbanas e das alterações climáticas sobre a área de distribuição de espécies 27 espécies de aves sensíveis aos impactos do setor no Nordeste do Brasil, uma região com uma enorme diversidade de avifauna, suscetível às alterações climáticas, onde o Setor Eólico está em expansão e com população humana em crescimento. Foi aplicada uma metodologia espacialmente explícita para avaliar este impacto através da modelação da distribuição destas espécies de aves sensíveis, no presente e em 2050, considerando um cenário específico de alterações climáticas. Criou-se um cenário de expansão humana com base em previsões do crescimento da população humana no Brasil até 2050. Criou-se também um cenário de expansão do Setor Eólico até 2050 recorrendo a previsões de crescimento da potência instalada no Nordeste do Brasil. A área ocupada pelas 27 espécies de aves sensíveis irá aumentar em 2050 no cenário de alterações climáticas considerado. A percentagem de área do Nordeste do Brasil ocupada pelas espécies passará de 58% para cerca de 91%, de acordo com os modelos climáticos obtidos. No futuro, 79% do Nordeste terá um aumento do número de espécies presentes, 12% um decréscimo e 9% manterá o número de espécies presentes. A expansão da área de distribuição das espécies de aves sensíveis não será homogénea, apresentando os Estados do Maranhão, Piauí e Ceará o maior ganho de espécies e os Estados da Bahia, Pernambuco e Paraíba as maiores perdas. Atualmente, as áreas urbanas ocupam cerca de 10.9 mil km2 e ocuparão cerca de 11.6 mil km2 no futuro. No presente, 14.8% das áreas urbanas não se sobrepõem à área de distribuição das espécies modeladas, valor que diminui para 1.8% em 2050. Assim, diminuirá a extensão de área urbana sem qualquer espécie sensível. A urbanização tenderá a expandir-se para zonas com elevado número de espécies, em particular nos Estados do Maranhão, Piauí e Ceará. No entanto, globalmente, as áreas urbanas terão uma sobreposição ligeiramente menor com a área de distribuição das espécies em termos percentuais (1% vs. 0.7%). Esta diminuição ocorre porque as espécies de aves irão alargar mais a sua área de distribuição do que as áreas urbanas se expandirão para locais com espécies sensíveis. A área ocupada pelo Setor Eólico irá quase quadruplicar até 2050, passando de 18.9 GW instalados numa área de cerca de 3 559 km2 no presente para 68.9 GW numa área de 12 898 km2 em 2050. Os Estados que terão uma maior instalação do setor serão o Ceará, Rio Grande do Norte e Bahia. Em relação à sobreposição com a área de distribuição das espécies, no presente 10.2% da área ocupada pelo Setor Eólico não coincide com a área de distribuição das espécies modeladas, valor que aumenta para 17.5% no futuro. Isto indica que o setor se expandirá principalmente para locais com uma menor riqueza de espécies de aves sensíveis. No entanto, aumentando a área absoluta ocupada pelo Setor Eólico, a sobreposição desta com a área de distribuição das espécies, aumentará de 0.4% no presente para 0.8% no futuro. Para finalizar, os resultados obtidos sugerem que a área ocupada pelo Setor Eólico aumentará quase quatro vezes no futuro num cenário de instalação de mais 50 GW até 2050. Comparando a sobreposição da expansão do Setor Eólico e da expansão das áreas urbanas com a área de distribuição das espécies de aves sensíveis num contexto de alterações climáticas, conclui-se que o impacto de ambas terá uma magnitude reduzida por afetarem, respetivamente, 0.8 e 0.7% do total da área de distribuição das espécies. Não obstante, com a expansão do Setor Eólico manter-se-á o conflito entre as espécies e o setor, podendo ainda vir a aumentar os restantes impactos negativos sobre este grupo.Biodiversity is increasingly threatened by human activities and climate change. Many countries have joined efforts to address the consequences of climate change, including the increased use of renewable energy resources. Wind energy is the world’s fastest-growing renewable energy source, though it can negatively impact biodiversity. In addition to death by collision with wind farms, habitat loss is a recognized negative impact of wind energy that remains poorly understood. This study aimed to analyse the impact of wind energy expansion, human growth and climate change in the distribution area of 27 bird species vulnerable to wind energy impacts in the Northeast of Brazil, a region with high bird diversity and susceptible to climate change, where the wind sector is expanding and human population is growing. A spatially explicit methodology was developed to assess the impacts by modelling the species distribution for present time and 2050m considering a specific climate change scenario. A human growth scenario was developed based on population growth until 2050. Finally, a wind sector expansion scenario was developed for 2050 using estimations of installed power in the Northeast of Brazil. The area occupied by the 27 vulnerable bird species will increase in 2050 under the considered climate change scenario. The percentage of bird distribution area occupied in the Northeast of Brazil will increase from 58% to 91% according to climate models. In 2050, 79% of the region will have more of the modelled species than today, 12% will have fewer species and 9% will maintain the species number. Species distribution will not expand equally across the region, with the states of Maranhão, Piauí and Ceará tending to be occupied by more species in the future, while Bahia, Pernambuco and Paraíba will be occupied by fewer species. Today, these areas occupy about 10 900 km2 and they will occupy about 11 600 km2 in the future. Currently, 14.8% of the urban areas do not overlap with the distribution area of the modelled but this value will decrease to about 1.8%. This means that urban expansion will not only happen towards areas where vulnerable species will occur in a higher number. However, in overall, urban areas will proportionally overlap less with the species distribution area (1% at present time vs. 0.7% in 2050). This happens because species will expand their distribution area more than urban areas will grow towards areas with vulnerable species. The occupied area of wind sector will increase almost fourfold in the Northeast of Brazil, increasing from 18.9 GW installed in 3 559 km2 today, to 68.9 GW of power in 12 898 km2. The states with more power installed area will be the Ceará, Rio Grande do Norte and Bahia. The wind sector today does not overlap with about 12% of the species distribution area. This value will increase to 17.5% in the future, with the wind sector mainly expanding towards places with a lower species richness. However, because the area occupied by the wind sector increases, the proportional overlapping with the distribution area of the species will increase from 0.4% to 0.8%. In conclusion, the obtained results suggest that the area occupied by the wind sector will increase almost four times in a scenario of an expected installation of 50 GW of wind power until 2050. Both the wind sector expansion and urban areas growth will pose a low magnitude impact on the vulnerable bird species, affecting 0.8% and 0.7% of their distribution area, respectively. Nevertheless, the conflict between the wind sector and bird species will remain, and other negative impacts on this animal group may even increase

Addressing drivers of dieback in an endangered shrub species, Persoonia hirsuta

Persoonia hirsuta Pers. (Proteaceae) is an Endangered shrub species endemic to the Sydney Basin region of New South Wales. This species has been in significant decline over the past two decades and is presently threatened by urban development, limited seedling recruitment, and observed dieback (a condition in which a plant begins to die from the tips of its leaves or backwards often owing to disease or an unfavourable environment) of a presently unknown cause. Understanding what causes dieback and limits new seedling recruitment is critical for the successful conservation and management of this species. The overarching goal of this research is to address key biological knowledge gaps associated with this species biology and explore potential drivers of dieback with an aim to improve the conservation and management of this species. My thesis has identified that soil pathogens, fire severity and climate change and/or environmental extremes may be involved in driving dieback and decline for P. hirsuta. However, further research is necessary to explore the intricacies of how these factors are involved in driving dieback. Additionally, these threats necessitate further conservation actions and improved management recommendations for this species. Therefore, the information in this PhD thesis has been prepared to serve in part of a NSW Threatened Species Scientific Committee Conservation Assessment as the combined results from this thesis, and other work suggest this species is eligible to be up listed to Critically Endangered. The increased understanding of ecological processes affecting dieback and decline gained from this thesis will inform future research activities and conservation recommendations for this species through improved delivery of adaptive management strategies such as translocations. Additionally, the novel strategies employed throughout thesis may improve future research associated with addressing possible drivers of dieback in native ecosystems