A quantitative framework for exploring exit strategies from the COVID-19 lockdown

Following the highly restrictive measures adopted by many countries for combating the current pandemic, the number of individuals infected by SARS-CoV-2 and the associated number of deaths steadily decreased. This fact, together with the impossibility of maintaining the lockdown indefinitely, raises the crucial question of whether it is possible to design an exit strategy based on quantitative analysis. Guided by rigorous mathematical results, we show that this is indeed possible: we present a robust numerical algorithm which can compute the cumulative number of deaths that will occur as a result of increasing the number of contacts by a given multiple, using as input only the most reliable of all data available during the lockdown, namely the cumulative number of deaths

Tipping Points of Evolving Epidemiological Networks: Machine Learning-Assisted, Data-Driven Effective Modeling

We study the tipping point collective dynamics of an adaptive susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemiological network in a data-driven, machine learning-assisted manner. We identify a parameter-dependent effective stochastic differential equation (eSDE) in terms of physically meaningful coarse mean-field variables through a deep-learning ResNet architecture inspired by numerical stochastic integrators. We construct an approximate effective bifurcation diagram based on the identified drift term of the eSDE and contrast it with the mean-field SIS model bifurcation diagram. We observe a subcritical Hopf bifurcation in the evolving network's effective SIS dynamics, that causes the tipping point behavior; this takes the form of large amplitude collective oscillations that spontaneously -- yet rarely -- arise from the neighborhood of a (noisy) stationary state. We study the statistics of these rare events both through repeated brute force simulations and by using established mathematical/computational tools exploiting the right-hand-side of the identified SDE. We demonstrate that such a collective SDE can also be identified (and the rare events computations also performed) in terms of data-driven coarse observables, obtained here via manifold learning techniques, in particular Diffusion Maps. The workflow of our study is straightforwardly applicable to other complex dynamics problems exhibiting tipping point dynamics.Comment: 22 pages, 12 figure

From partial data to out-of-sample parameter and observation estimation with diffusion maps and geometric harmonics

peer reviewedA data-driven framework is presented, that enables the prediction of quantities, either observations or parameters, given sufficient partial data. The framework is illustrated via a computational model of the deposition of Cu in a Chemical Vapor Deposition (CVD) reactor, where the reactor pressure, the deposition temperature and feed mass flow rate are important process parameters that determine the outcome of the process. The sampled observations are high-dimensional vectors containing the outputs of a detailed CFD steady-state model of the process, i.e. the values of velocity, pressure, temperature, and species mass fractions at each point in the discretization. A machine learning workflow is presented, able to predict out-of-sample (a) observations (e.g. mass fraction in the reactor), given process parameters (e.g. inlet temperature); (b) process parameters, given observation data; and (c) partial observations (e.g. temperature in the reactor), given other partial observations (e.g. mass fraction in the reactor). The proposed workflow relies on two manifold learning schemes: Diffusion Maps and the associated Geometric Harmonics. Diffusion Maps are used for discovering a reduced representation of the available data, and Geometric Harmonics for extending functions defined on the discovered manifold. In our work a special use case of Geometric Harmonics is formulated and implemented, which we call Double Diffusion Maps, to map from the reduced representation back to (partial) observations and process parameters. A comparison of our manifold learning scheme to the traditional Gappy-POD approach is provided: ours can be thought of as a “Gappy DMAPs” approach. The presented methodology is easily transferable to application domains beyond reactor engineering

On the parameter combinations that matter and on those that do not: Data-driven studies of parameter (non)identifiability

We present a data-driven approach to characterizing nonidentifiability of a model’s parameters and illustrate it through dynamic as well as steady kinetic models. By employing Diffusion Maps and their extensions, we discover the minimal combinations of parameters required to characterize the output behavior of a chemical system: a set of effective parameters for the model. Furthermore, we introduce and use a Conformal Autoencoder Neural Network technique, as well as a kernel-based Jointly Smooth Function technique, to disentangle the redundant parameter combinations that do not affect the output behavior from the ones that do. We discuss the interpretability of our data-driven effective parameters, and demonstrate the utility of the approach both for behavior prediction and parameter estimation. In the latter task, it becomes important to describe level sets in parameter space that are consistent with a particular output behavior. We validate our approach on a model of multisite phosphorylation, where a reduced set of effective parameters (nonlinear combinations of the physical ones) has previously been established analytically