Structural Generative Descriptions for Temporal Data

In data mining problems the representation or description of data plays a fundamental role, since it defines the set of essential properties for the extraction and characterisation of patterns. However, for the case of temporal data, such as time series and data streams, one outstanding issue when developing mining algorithms is finding an appropriate data description or representation. In this thesis two novel domain-independent representation frameworks for temporal data suitable for off-line and online mining tasks are formulated. First, a domain-independent temporal data representation framework based on a novel data description strategy which combines structural and statistical pattern recognition approaches is developed. The key idea here is to move the structural pattern recognition problem to the probability domain. This framework is composed of three general tasks: a) decomposing input temporal patterns into subpatterns in time or any other transformed domain (for instance, wavelet domain); b) mapping these subpatterns into the probability domain to find attributes of elemental probability subpatterns called primitives; and c) mining input temporal patterns according to the attributes of their corresponding probability domain subpatterns. This framework is referred to as Structural Generative Descriptions (SGDs). Two off-line and two online algorithmic instantiations of the proposed SGDs framework are then formulated: i) For the off-line case, the first instantiation is based on the use of Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) and Wavelet Density Estimators (WDE), while the second algorithm includes DWT and Finite Gaussian Mixtures. ii) For the online case, the first instantiation relies on an online implementation of DWT and a recursive version of WDE (RWDE), whereas the second algorithm is based on a multi-resolution exponentially weighted moving average filter and RWDE. The empirical evaluation of proposed SGDs-based algorithms is performed in the context of time series classification, for off-line algorithms, and in the context of change detection and clustering, for online algorithms. For this purpose, synthetic and publicly available real-world data are used. Additionally, a novel framework for multidimensional data stream evolution diagnosis incorporating RWDE into the context of Velocity Density Estimation (VDE) is formulated. Changes in streaming data and changes in their correlation structure are characterised by means of local and global evolution coefficients as well as by means of recursive correlation coefficients. The proposed VDE framework is evaluated using temperature data from the UK and air pollution data from Hong Kong.Open Acces

On adaptive decision rules and decision parameter adaptation for automatic speech recognition

Recent advances in automatic speech recognition are accomplished by designing a plug-in maximum a posteriori decision rule such that the forms of the acoustic and language model distributions are specified and the parameters of the assumed distributions are estimated from a collection of speech and language training corpora. Maximum-likelihood point estimation is by far the most prevailing training method. However, due to the problems of unknown speech distributions, sparse training data, high spectral and temporal variabilities in speech, and possible mismatch between training and testing conditions, a dynamic training strategy is needed. To cope with the changing speakers and speaking conditions in real operational conditions for high-performance speech recognition, such paradigms incorporate a small amount of speaker and environment specific adaptation data into the training process. Bayesian adaptive learning is an optimal way to combine prior knowledge in an existing collection of general models with a new set of condition-specific adaptation data. In this paper, the mathematical framework for Bayesian adaptation of acoustic and language model parameters is first described. Maximum a posteriori point estimation is then developed for hidden Markov models and a number of useful parameters densities commonly used in automatic speech recognition and natural language processing.published_or_final_versio

Novel chemometric proposals for advanced multivariate data analysis, processing and interpretation

The present Ph.D. thesis, primarily conceived to support and reinforce the relation between academic and industrial worlds, was developed in collaboration with Shell Global Solutions (Amsterdam, The Netherlands) in the endeavour of applying and possibly extending well-established latent variable-based approaches (i.e. Principal Component Analysis - PCA - Partial Least Squares regression - PLS - or Partial Least Squares Discriminant Analysis - PLSDA) for complex problem solving not only in the fields of manufacturing troubleshooting and optimisation, but also in the wider environment of multivariate data analysis. To this end, novel efficient algorithmic solutions are proposed throughout all chapters to address very disparate tasks, from calibration transfer in spectroscopy to real-time modelling of streaming flows of data. The manuscript is divided into the following six parts, focused on various topics of interest: Part I - Preface, where an overview of this research work, its main aims and justification is given together with a brief introduction on PCA, PLS and PLSDA; Part II - On kernel-based extensions of PCA, PLS and PLSDA, where the potential of kernel techniques, possibly coupled to specific variants of the recently rediscovered pseudo-sample projection, formulated by the English statistician John C. Gower, is explored and their performance compared to that of more classical methodologies in four different applications scenarios: segmentation of Red-Green-Blue (RGB) images, discrimination of on-/off-specification batch runs, monitoring of batch processes and analysis of mixture designs of experiments; Part III - On the selection of the number of factors in PCA by permutation testing, where an extensive guideline on how to accomplish the selection of PCA components by permutation testing is provided through the comprehensive illustration of an original algorithmic procedure implemented for such a purpose; Part IV - On modelling common and distinctive sources of variability in multi-set data analysis, where several practical aspects of two-block common and distinctive component analysis (carried out by methods like Simultaneous Component Analysis - SCA - DIStinctive and COmmon Simultaneous Component Analysis - DISCO-SCA - Adapted Generalised Singular Value Decomposition - Adapted GSVD - ECO-POWER, Canonical Correlation Analysis - CCA - and 2-block Orthogonal Projections to Latent Structures - O2PLS) are discussed, a new computational strategy for determining the number of common factors underlying two data matrices sharing the same row- or column-dimension is described, and two innovative approaches for calibration transfer between near-infrared spectrometers are presented; Part V - On the on-the-fly processing and modelling of continuous high-dimensional data streams, where a novel software system for rational handling of multi-channel measurements recorded in real time, the On-The-Fly Processing (OTFP) tool, is designed; Part VI - Epilogue, where final conclusions are drawn, future perspectives are delineated, and annexes are included.La presente tesis doctoral, concebida principalmente para apoyar y reforzar la relación entre la academia y la industria, se desarrolló en colaboración con Shell Global Solutions (Amsterdam, Países Bajos) en el esfuerzo de aplicar y posiblemente extender los enfoques ya consolidados basados en variables latentes (es decir, Análisis de Componentes Principales - PCA - Regresión en Mínimos Cuadrados Parciales - PLS - o PLS discriminante - PLSDA) para la resolución de problemas complejos no sólo en los campos de mejora y optimización de procesos, sino también en el entorno más amplio del análisis de datos multivariados. Con este fin, en todos los capítulos proponemos nuevas soluciones algorítmicas eficientes para abordar tareas dispares, desde la transferencia de calibración en espectroscopia hasta el modelado en tiempo real de flujos de datos. El manuscrito se divide en las seis partes siguientes, centradas en diversos temas de interés: Parte I - Prefacio, donde presentamos un resumen de este trabajo de investigación, damos sus principales objetivos y justificaciones junto con una breve introducción sobre PCA, PLS y PLSDA; Parte II - Sobre las extensiones basadas en kernels de PCA, PLS y PLSDA, donde presentamos el potencial de las técnicas de kernel, eventualmente acopladas a variantes específicas de la recién redescubierta proyección de pseudo-muestras, formulada por el estadista inglés John C. Gower, y comparamos su rendimiento respecto a metodologías más clásicas en cuatro aplicaciones a escenarios diferentes: segmentación de imágenes Rojo-Verde-Azul (RGB), discriminación y monitorización de procesos por lotes y análisis de diseños de experimentos de mezclas; Parte III - Sobre la selección del número de factores en el PCA por pruebas de permutación, donde aportamos una guía extensa sobre cómo conseguir la selección de componentes de PCA mediante pruebas de permutación y una ilustración completa de un procedimiento algorítmico original implementado para tal fin; Parte IV - Sobre la modelización de fuentes de variabilidad común y distintiva en el análisis de datos multi-conjunto, donde discutimos varios aspectos prácticos del análisis de componentes comunes y distintivos de dos bloques de datos (realizado por métodos como el Análisis Simultáneo de Componentes - SCA - Análisis Simultáneo de Componentes Distintivos y Comunes - DISCO-SCA - Descomposición Adaptada Generalizada de Valores Singulares - Adapted GSVD - ECO-POWER, Análisis de Correlaciones Canónicas - CCA - y Proyecciones Ortogonales de 2 conjuntos a Estructuras Latentes - O2PLS). Presentamos a su vez una nueva estrategia computacional para determinar el número de factores comunes subyacentes a dos matrices de datos que comparten la misma dimensión de fila o columna y dos planteamientos novedosos para la transferencia de calibración entre espectrómetros de infrarrojo cercano; Parte V - Sobre el procesamiento y la modelización en tiempo real de flujos de datos de alta dimensión, donde diseñamos la herramienta de Procesamiento en Tiempo Real (OTFP), un nuevo sistema de manejo racional de mediciones multi-canal registradas en tiempo real; Parte VI - Epílogo, donde presentamos las conclusiones finales, delimitamos las perspectivas futuras, e incluimos los anexos.La present tesi doctoral, concebuda principalment per a recolzar i reforçar la relació entre l'acadèmia i la indústria, es va desenvolupar en col·laboració amb Shell Global Solutions (Amsterdam, Països Baixos) amb l'esforç d'aplicar i possiblement estendre els enfocaments ja consolidats basats en variables latents (és a dir, Anàlisi de Components Principals - PCA - Regressió en Mínims Quadrats Parcials - PLS - o PLS discriminant - PLSDA) per a la resolució de problemes complexos no solament en els camps de la millora i optimització de processos, sinó també en l'entorn més ampli de l'anàlisi de dades multivariades. A aquest efecte, en tots els capítols proposem noves solucions algorítmiques eficients per a abordar tasques dispars, des de la transferència de calibratge en espectroscopia fins al modelatge en temps real de fluxos de dades. El manuscrit es divideix en les sis parts següents, centrades en diversos temes d'interès: Part I - Prefaci, on presentem un resum d'aquest treball de recerca, es donen els seus principals objectius i justificacions juntament amb una breu introducció sobre PCA, PLS i PLSDA; Part II - Sobre les extensions basades en kernels de PCA, PLS i PLSDA, on presentem el potencial de les tècniques de kernel, eventualment acoblades a variants específiques de la recentment redescoberta projecció de pseudo-mostres, formulada per l'estadista anglés John C. Gower, i comparem el seu rendiment respecte a metodologies més clàssiques en quatre aplicacions a escenaris diferents: segmentació d'imatges Roig-Verd-Blau (RGB), discriminació i monitorització de processos per lots i anàlisi de dissenys d'experiments de mescles; Part III - Sobre la selecció del nombre de factors en el PCA per proves de permutació, on aportem una guia extensa sobre com aconseguir la selecció de components de PCA a través de proves de permutació i una il·lustració completa d'un procediment algorítmic original implementat per a la finalitat esmentada; Part IV - Sobre la modelització de fonts de variabilitat comuna i distintiva en l'anàlisi de dades multi-conjunt, on discutim diversos aspectes pràctics de l'anàlisis de components comuns i distintius de dos blocs de dades (realitzat per mètodes com l'Anàlisi Simultània de Components - SCA - Anàlisi Simultània de Components Distintius i Comuns - DISCO-SCA - Descomposició Adaptada Generalitzada en Valors Singulars - Adapted GSVD - ECO-POWER, Anàlisi de Correlacions Canòniques - CCA - i Projeccions Ortogonals de 2 blocs a Estructures Latents - O2PLS). Presentem al mateix temps una nova estratègia computacional per a determinar el nombre de factors comuns subjacents a dues matrius de dades que comparteixen la mateixa dimensió de fila o columna, i dos plantejaments nous per a la transferència de calibratge entre espectròmetres d'infraroig proper; Part V - Sobre el processament i la modelització en temps real de fluxos de dades d'alta dimensió, on dissenyem l'eina de Processament en Temps Real (OTFP), un nou sistema de tractament racional de mesures multi-canal registrades en temps real; Part VI - Epíleg, on presentem les conclusions finals, delimitem les perspectives futures, i incloem annexos.Vitale, R. (2017). Novel chemometric proposals for advanced multivariate data analysis, processing and interpretation [Tesis doctoral no publicada]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/90442TESI

Efficient real-time monitoring of an emerging influenza pandemic: How feasible?

A prompt public health response to a new epidemic relies on the ability to monitor and predict its evolution in real time as data accumulate. The 2009 A/H1N1 outbreak in the UK revealed pandemic data as noisy, contaminated, potentially biased and originating from multiple sources. This seriously challenges the capacity for real-time monitoring. Here, we assess the feasibility of real-time inference based on such data by constructing an analytic tool combining an age-stratified SEIR transmission model with various observation models describing the data generation mechanisms. As batches of data become available, a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm is developed to synthesise multiple imperfect data streams, iterate epidemic inferences and assess model adequacy amidst a rapidly evolving epidemic environment, substantially reducing computation time in comparison to standard MCMC, to ensure timely delivery of real-time epidemic assessments. In application to simulated data designed to mimic the 2009 A/H1N1 epidemic, SMC is shown to have additional benefits in terms of assessing predictive performance and coping with parameter nonidentifiability