A multidisciplinary framework for mission effectiveness quantification and assessment of micro autonomous systems and technologies

Micro Autonomous Systems and Technologies (MAST) is an Army Research Laboratory (ARL) sponsored project based on a consortium of revolutionary academic and industrial research institutions working together to develop new technologies in the field of microelectronics, autonomy, micromechanics and integration. The overarching goal of the MAST consortium is to develop autonomous, multifunctional, and collaborative ensembles of microsystems to enhance small unit tactical situational awareness in urban and complex terrain. Unmanned systems are used to obtain intelligence at the macro level, but there is no real-time intelligence asset at the squad level. MAST seeks to provide that asset. Consequently, multiple integrated MAST heterogeneous platforms (e.g. crawlers, flyers, etc.) working together synergistically as an ensemble shall be capable of autonomously performing a wide spectrum of operational functions based on the latest developments in micro-mechanics, micro-electronics, and power technologies to achieve the desired operational objectives. The design of such vehicles is, by nature, highly constrained in terms of size, weight and power. Technologists are trying to understand the impacts of developing state-of-the-art technologies on the MAST systems while the operators are trying to define strategies and tactics on how to use these systems. These two different perspectives create an integration gap. The operators understand the capabilities needed on the field of deployment but not necessarily the technologies, while the technologists understand the physics of the technologies but not necessarily how they will be deployed, utilized, and operated during a mission. This not only results in a major requirements disconnect, representing the difference of perspectives between soldiers and the researchers, but also demonstrates the lack of quantified means to assess the technology gap in terms of mission requirements. This necessitates the quantification and resolution of the requirements disconnect and technology gap leading to re-definitions of the requirements based on mission scenarios. A research plan, built on a technical approach based on the simultaneous application of decomposition and re-composition or 'Top-down' and 'Bottom-up' approaches, was used for development of a structured and traceable methodology. The developed methodology is implemented through an integrated framework consisting of various decision-making tools, modeling and simulation, and experimental data farming and validation. The major obstacles in the development of the presented framework stemmed from the fact that all MAST technologies are revolutionary in nature, with no available historical data, sizing and synthesis codes or reliable physics-based models. The inherently multidisciplinary, multi-objective and uncertain nature of MAST technologies makes it very difficult to map mission level objectives to measurable engineering metrics. It involves the optimization of multiple disciplines such as Aero, CS/CE, ME, EE, Biology, etc., and of multiple objectives such as mission performance, tactics, vehicle attributes, etc. Furthermore, the concept space is enormous with hundreds of billions of alternatives, and largely includes future technologies with low Technology Readiness Level (TRL) resulting in high uncertainty. The presented framework is a cyber-physical design and analysis suite that combines Warfighter mission needs and expert technologist knowledge with a set of design and optimization tools, models, and experiments in order to provide a quantitative measure of the requirements disconnect and technology gap mentioned above. This quantification provides the basis for re-definitions of the requirements that are realistic in nature and ensure mission success. The research presents the development of this methodology and framework to address the core research objectives. The developed framework was then implemented on two mission scenarios that are of interest to the MAST consortium and Army Research Laboratory, namely, Joppa Urban Dwelling and Black Hawk Down Interior Building Reconnaissance. Results demonstrate the framework’s validity and serve as proof of concept for bridging the requirements disconnect between the Warfighter and the technologists. Billions of alternative MAST vehicles, composed of current and future technologies, were modeled and simulated, as part of a swarm, to evaluate their mission performance. In-depth analyses of the experiments, conducted as part of the research, presents quantitative technology gaps that needs to be addressed by technologist for successful mission completion. Quantitative values for vehicle specifications and systems' Measures of Performance were determined for acceptable level of performance for the given missions. The consolidated results were used for defining mission based requirements of MAST systems.Ph.D

NASA Risk-Informed Decision Making Handbook

This handbook provides guidance for conducting risk-informed decision making in the context of NASA risk management (RM), with a focus on the types of direction-setting key decisions that are characteristic of the NASA program and project life cycles, and which produce derived requirements in accordance with existing systems engineering practices that flow down through the NASA organizational hierarchy. The guidance in this handbook is not meant to be prescriptive. Instead, it is meant to be general enough, and contain a sufficient diversity of examples, to enable the reader to adapt the methods as needed to the particular decision problems that he or she faces. The handbook highlights major issues to consider when making decisions in the presence of potentially significant uncertainty, so that the user is better able to recognize and avoid pitfalls that might otherwise be experienced

Derivation of forest inventory parameters from high-resolution satellite imagery for the Thunkel area, Northern Mongolia. A comparative study on various satellite sensors and data analysis techniques.

With the demise of the Soviet Union and the transition to a market economy starting in the 1990s, Mongolia has been experiencing dramatic changes resulting in social and economic disparities and an increasing strain on its natural resources. The situation is exacerbated by a changing climate, the erosion of forestry related administrative structures, and a lack of law enforcement activities. Mongolia’s forests have been afflicted with a dramatic increase in degradation due to human and natural impacts such as overexploitation and wildfire occurrences. In addition, forest management practices are far from being sustainable. In order to provide useful information on how to viably and effectively utilise the forest resources in the future, the gathering and analysis of forest related data is pivotal. Although a National Forest Inventory was conducted in 2016, very little reliable and scientifically substantiated information exists related to a regional or even local level. This lack of detailed information warranted a study performed in the Thunkel taiga area in 2017 in cooperation with the GIZ. In this context, we hypothesise that (i) tree species and composition can be identified utilising the aerial imagery, (ii) tree height can be extracted from the resulting canopy height model with accuracies commensurate with field survey measurements, and (iii) high-resolution satellite imagery is suitable for the extraction of tree species, the number of trees, and the upscaling of timber volume and basal area based on the spectral properties. The outcomes of this study illustrate quite clearly the potential of employing UAV imagery for tree height extraction (R2 of 0.9) as well as for species and crown diameter determination. However, in a few instances, the visual interpretation of the aerial photographs were determined to be superior to the computer-aided automatic extraction of forest attributes. In addition, imagery from various satellite sensors (e.g. Sentinel-2, RapidEye, WorldView-2) proved to be excellently suited for the delineation of burned areas and the assessment of tree vigour. Furthermore, recently developed sophisticated classifying approaches such as Support Vector Machines and Random Forest appear to be tailored for tree species discrimination (Overall Accuracy of 89%). Object-based classification approaches convey the impression to be highly suitable for very high-resolution imagery, however, at medium scale, pixel-based classifiers outperformed the former. It is also suggested that high radiometric resolution bears the potential to easily compensate for the lack of spatial detectability in the imagery. Quite surprising was the occurrence of dark taiga species in the riparian areas being beyond their natural habitat range. The presented results matrix and the interpretation key have been devised as a decision tool and/or a vademecum for practitioners. In consideration of future projects and to facilitate the improvement of the forest inventory database, the establishment of permanent sampling plots in the Mongolian taigas is strongly advised.2021-06-0

NASA Risk Management Handbook

The purpose of this handbook is to provide guidance for implementing the Risk Management (RM) requirements of NASA Procedural Requirements (NPR) document NPR 8000.4A, Agency Risk Management Procedural Requirements [1], with a specific focus on programs and projects, and applying to each level of the NASA organizational hierarchy as requirements flow down. This handbook supports RM application within the NASA systems engineering process, and is a complement to the guidance contained in NASA/SP-2007-6105, NASA Systems Engineering Handbook [2]. Specifically, this handbook provides guidance that is applicable to the common technical processes of Technical Risk Management and Decision Analysis established by NPR 7123.1A, NASA Systems Engineering Process and Requirements [3]. These processes are part of the \Systems Engineering Engine. (Figure 1) that is used to drive the development of the system and associated work products to satisfy stakeholder expectations in all mission execution domains, including safety, technical, cost, and schedule. Like NPR 7123.1A, NPR 8000.4A is a discipline-oriented NPR that intersects with product-oriented NPRs such as NPR 7120.5D, NASA Space Flight Program and Project Management Requirements [4]; NPR 7120.7, NASA Information Technology and Institutional Infrastructure Program and Project Management Requirements [5]; and NPR 7120.8, NASA Research and Technology Program and Project Management Requirements [6]. In much the same way that the NASA Systems Engineering Handbook is intended to provide guidance on the implementation of NPR 7123.1A, this handbook is intended to provide guidance on the implementation of NPR 8000.4A. 1.2 Scope and Depth This handbook provides guidance for conducting RM in the context of NASA program and project life cycles, which produce derived requirements in accordance with existing systems engineering practices that flow down through the NASA organizational hierarchy. The guidance in this handbook is not meant to be prescriptive. Instead, it is meant to be general enough, and contain a sufficient diversity of examples, to enable the reader to adapt the methods as needed to the particular risk management issues that he or she faces. The handbook highlights major issues to consider when managing programs and projects in the presence of potentially significant uncertainty, so that the user is better able to recognize and avoid pitfalls that might otherwise be experienced

Development of Risk Uncertainty Factors from Historical NASA Projects

NASA is a good investment of federal funds and strives to provide the best value to the nation. NASA has consistently budgeted to unrealistic cost estimates, which are evident in the cost growth in many of its programs. In this investigation, NASA has been using available uncertainty factors from the Aerospace Corporation, Air Force, and Booz Allen Hamilton to develop projects\u27 risk posture. NASA has no insight into the developmental of these factors and, as demonstrated here, this can lead to unrealistic risks in many NASA Programs and projects (P/p). The primary contribution of this project is the development of NASA missions\u27 uncertainty factors, from actual historical NASA projects, to aid cost-estimating as well as for independent reviews which provide NASA senior management with information and analysis to determine the appropriate decision regarding P/p. In general terms, this research project advances programmatic analysis for NASA projects

Naval Research Program 2021 Annual Report

NPS NRP Annual ReportThe Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) Naval Research Program (NRP) is funded by the Chief of Naval Operations and supports research projects for the Navy and Marine Corps. The NPS NRP serves as a launch-point for new initiatives which posture naval forces to meet current and future operational warfighter challenges. NRP research projects are led by individual research teams that conduct research and through which NPS expertise is developed and maintained. The primary mechanism for obtaining NPS NRP support is through participation at NPS Naval Research Working Group (NRWG) meetings that bring together fleet topic sponsors, NPS faculty members, and students to discuss potential research topics and initiatives.Chief of Naval Operations (CNO)Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Proceedings, MSVSCC 2012

Proceedings of the 6th Annual Modeling, Simulation & Visualization Student Capstone Conference held on April 19, 2012 at VMASC in Suffolk, Virginia

A Customer Value Assessment Process (CVAP) for Ballistic Missile Defense

A systematic customer value assessment process (CVAP) was developed to give system engineering teams the capability to qualitatively and quantitatively assess customer values. It also provides processes and techniques used to create and identify alternatives, evaluate alternatives in terms of effectiveness, cost, and risk. The ultimate goal is to provide customers (or decision makers) with objective and traceable procurement recommendations. The creation of CVAP was driven by an industry need to provide ballistic missile defense (BMD) customers with a value proposition of contractors’ BMD systems. The information that outputs from CVAP can be used to guide BMD contractors in formulating a value proposition, which is used to steer customers to procure their BMD system(s) instead of competing system(s). The outputs from CVAP also illuminate areas where systems can be improved to stay relevant with customer values by identifying capability gaps. CVAP incorporates proven approaches and techniques appropriate for military applications. However, CVAP is adaptable and may be applied to business, engineering, and even personal every-day decision problems and opportunities. CVAP is based on the systems decision process (SDP) developed by Gregory S. Parnell and other systems engineering faculty at the Unites States Military Academy (USMA). SDP combines Value-Focused Thinking (VFT) decision analysis philosophy with Multi-Objective Decision Analysis (MODA) quantitative analysis of alternatives. CVAP improves SDP’s qualitative value model by implementing Quality Function Deployment (QFD), solution design implements creative problem solving techniques, and the qualitative value model by adding cost analysis and risk assessment processes practiced by the U.S DoD and industry. CVAP and SDP fundamentally differ from other decision making approaches, like the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), by distinctly separating the value/utility function assessment process with the ranking of alternatives. This explicit value assessment allows for straightforward traceability of the specific factors that influence decisions, which illuminates the tradeoffs involved in making decisions with multiple objectives. CVAP is intended to be a decision support tool with the ultimate purpose of helping decision makers attain the best solution and understanding the differences between the alternatives. CVAP does not include any processes for implementation of the alternative that the customer selects. CVAP is applied to ballistic missile defense (BMD) to give contractors ideas on how to use it. An introduction of BMD, unique BMD challenges, and how CVAP can improve the BMD decision making process is presented. Each phase of CVAP is applied to the BMD decision environment. CVAP is applied to a fictitious BMD example

Generation of a Land Cover Atlas of environmental critic zones using unconventional tools

L'abstract è presente nell'allegato / the abstract is in the attachmen